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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Switch Overtake the Xbox One in the USA?

quickrick said:
SWORDF1SH said:

You both make good points but you need to ease up a little. He's comparing it to Xbox because that's what the thread is about. Switch vs Xbox .

xbox only has 2 succesful consoles, and no nintendo console has ever sold like 360. where it started off so slow, and sold for so long.

I think Sony has been the most consistent with trends while Nintendo has been up and down and Xbox 2 gens were very different. It's very hard to use past trends to predict this gen. I'd go as far as saying that only Sony's past console sale trends is reliable to go by to predict PS4 sales.



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MinatozakiSana said:
it will without a doubt, it's already beasting month after month without Nintendo barely lifting a finger

I wouldn't say Nintendo hasn't lifted a finger. They're working hard to get out their IPs to help shift consoles .



SWORDF1SH said:
quickrick said:

xbox only has 2 succesful consoles, and no nintendo console has ever sold like 360. where it started off so slow, and sold for so long.

I think Sony has been the most consistent with trends while Nintendo has been up and down and Xbox 2 gens were very different. It's very hard to use past trends to predict this gen. I'd go as far as saying that only Sony's past console sale trends is reliable to go by to predict PS4 sales.

Sony consoles aren't consistent either.

The PS4 already has four years under its belt though, so sales data of previous consoles isn't important anyway. The PS4 sales curve doesn't match the PS1, PS2 nor PS3.

The same thing can be said for the Xbox One. It doesn't match the original Xbox nor 360.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

I went back to when Xbox came on the market, a pretty logical time to start from.

The 6 Nintendo systems from 2001 onward do not share a similar trend.

The 2 Xbox systems from 2001 onward do not share a similar trend.

 

 point remains there has never been consoles that start as strong as nintendo, and end up with such a low LTD in the US, so it's not based off nothing. i'm not sure why you are comparing it to xbox when it should compared to playstation, because xbox only has 3 consoles, and only 2 are successful, and one still selling so we don't know what the ltd will be.

Why in the world would i compare to Nintendo to Playstation in a Nintendo vs Xbox thread? Think before you respond.

 

Stop deflecting, just address what people say before rambling on about different things. None of your responses to me have addressed what i said.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

So far the X1 will likely reach 30M units LTD in NA going by it's probable sales curve and the 3DS will likely end up selling ~24M units in NA ...

According to NPD, the Switch has had a 20% tracking advantage against the 3DS and it's first month this year also showed a 20% tracking advantage on a weekly basis too so if we extrapolated that the Switch will keep it's 20% tracking advantage it will likely reach ~29M units in NA ...

The battle between the Switch and the X1 in NA is more competitive than what most people on either side of the argument would give it credit for so neither side has it in the bag ...



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fatslob-:O said:
So far the X1 will likely reach 30M units LTD in NA going by it's probable sales curve and the 3DS will likely end up selling ~24M units in NA ...

According to NPD, the Switch has had a 20% tracking advantage against the 3DS and it's first month this year also showed a 20% tracking advantage on a weekly basis too so if we extrapolated that the Switch will keep it's 20% tracking advantage it will likely reach ~29M units in NA ...

The battle between the Switch and the X1 in NA is more competitive than what most people on either side of the argument would give it credit for so neither side has it in the bag ...

Not really.

When Switch and 3DS were about even on a global basis and Nintendo's forecast for the fiscal year was 10m, you projected that Switch won't beat 3DS lifetime sales despite people making you aware that Switch is pulling off the same numbers without a price cut and that it's to be expected that Nintendo will raise their forecast.

Now you make the same mistake by assuming that Switch will merely maintain its advantage over the 3DS in the USA instead of going with the more logical outcome that Switch will continue to widen the gap. In the coming months Switch won't only beat the 3DS by 20%, but by notably bigger margins.

EDIT: 3DS in 2012. NPD data, unless otherwise noted.

Feb - 262k
Mar - ~250k (VGC estimate, NPD thread not properly updated)
Apr - 125k
May - 114k
Jun - 155k
Jul - ~150k (estimate, no clear NPD data)
Aug - 176k (3DS XL launch month)
Sep - ~270k (VGC estimate)
Oct - 192k (minimum value based on calculations)
Nov - 540k
Dec - 1.25m

Most of those figures aren't hard to beat by a margin of more than 20%.

Last edited by RolStoppable - on 10 March 2018

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
SWORDF1SH said:

I think Sony has been the most consistent with trends while Nintendo has been up and down and Xbox 2 gens were very different. It's very hard to use past trends to predict this gen. I'd go as far as saying that only Sony's past console sale trends is reliable to go by to predict PS4 sales.

Sony consoles aren't consistent either.

The PS4 already has four years under its belt though, so sales data of previous consoles isn't important anyway. The PS4 sales curve doesn't match the PS1, PS2 nor PS3.

The same thing can be said for the Xbox One. It doesn't match the original Xbox nor 360.

Not saying you're wrong but the impression I got was that the PS2, PS3 and PS4 trends were similar considering the staggered launches of PS2 and PS3. PS1 was a slow starter. 

This is without studying any numbers so any input would be appreciated. We need shadow with one of his charts. 



SWORDF1SH said:
RolStoppable said:

Sony consoles aren't consistent either.

The PS4 already has four years under its belt though, so sales data of previous consoles isn't important anyway. The PS4 sales curve doesn't match the PS1, PS2 nor PS3.

The same thing can be said for the Xbox One. It doesn't match the original Xbox nor 360.

Not saying you're wrong but the impression I got was that the PS2, PS3 and PS4 trends were similar considering the staggered launches of PS2 and PS3. PS1 was a slow starter. 

This is without studying any numbers so any input would be appreciated. We need shadow with one of his charts. 

PS1 peaked year 3 or 4

PS2 peaked year 2

PS3 peaked year 5

PS4 peak so far is year 4 (could be year 5)

 

PS1 and PS2 had great legs after their successors launched while PS3 only lasted a couple years after its successor launched.

 

There really isnt any set trend for any of the console manufacturers.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Not saying you're wrong but the impression I got was that the PS2, PS3 and PS4 trends were similar considering the staggered launches of PS2 and PS3. PS1 was a slow starter. 

This is without studying any numbers so any input would be appreciated. We need shadow with one of his charts. 

PS1 peaked year 3 or 4

PS2 peaked year 2

PS3 peaked year 5

PS4 peak so far is year 4 (could be year 5)

 

PS1 and PS2 had great legs after their successors launched while PS3 only lasted a couple years after its successor launched.

 

There really isnt any set trend for any of the console manufacturers.

Thanks for the information but peaks aren't really a great indicator for disproving trends unless the peak years are a lot higher than the years around it. For instance PS2 could be 5M, 22M, 21M, 21M, 20M while PS3 could be 3M, 12M, 13M, 13M,  14M. Both are similar trends but with different peak years. 



RolStoppable said:

Not really.

When Switch and 3DS were about even on a global basis and Nintendo's forecast for the fiscal year was 10m, you projected that Switch won't beat 3DS lifetime sales despite people making you aware that Switch is pulling off the same numbers without a price cut and that it's to be expected that Nintendo will raise their forecast.

Now you make the same mistake by assuming that Switch will merely maintain its advantage over the 3DS in the USA instead of going with the more logical outcome that Switch will continue to widen the gap. In the coming months Switch won't only beat the 3DS by 20%, but by notably bigger margins.

The price point argument is just an excuse, it remains solely on Nintendo's end to maintain the value proposition of their systems just as the same applies to every other console manufacturer so we can't assume that the Switch will grow it's lead against the 3DS in terms of value proposition when the timing and margin of pricing strategy of each platform is variable ... (for all we know Nintendo could decide to forgo price cuts until next year and maybe by a smaller margin too compared to the 3DS's first price cut) 

It's pretty obvious Nintendo intentionally weighed on the trade-offs between value proposition vs marginal cost of production with the Switch so Nintendo will have to see how the long term effects will manifest and as to how it plays into their strategy regardless ... 

As for your last paragraph, we'll have to see since there's nothing in the short term that would suggest that the Switch's gap over the 3DS will widen by a noticeable margin ...