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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Switch Overtake the Xbox One in the USA?

So far the X1 will likely reach 30M units LTD in NA going by it's probable sales curve and the 3DS will likely end up selling ~24M units in NA ...

According to NPD, the Switch has had a 20% tracking advantage against the 3DS and it's first month this year also showed a 20% tracking advantage on a weekly basis too so if we extrapolated that the Switch will keep it's 20% tracking advantage it will likely reach ~29M units in NA ...

The battle between the Switch and the X1 in NA is more competitive than what most people on either side of the argument would give it credit for so neither side has it in the bag ...



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RolStoppable said:
SWORDF1SH said:

I think Sony has been the most consistent with trends while Nintendo has been up and down and Xbox 2 gens were very different. It's very hard to use past trends to predict this gen. I'd go as far as saying that only Sony's past console sale trends is reliable to go by to predict PS4 sales.

Sony consoles aren't consistent either.

The PS4 already has four years under its belt though, so sales data of previous consoles isn't important anyway. The PS4 sales curve doesn't match the PS1, PS2 nor PS3.

The same thing can be said for the Xbox One. It doesn't match the original Xbox nor 360.

Not saying you're wrong but the impression I got was that the PS2, PS3 and PS4 trends were similar considering the staggered launches of PS2 and PS3. PS1 was a slow starter. 

This is without studying any numbers so any input would be appreciated. We need shadow with one of his charts. 



SWORDF1SH said:
RolStoppable said:

Sony consoles aren't consistent either.

The PS4 already has four years under its belt though, so sales data of previous consoles isn't important anyway. The PS4 sales curve doesn't match the PS1, PS2 nor PS3.

The same thing can be said for the Xbox One. It doesn't match the original Xbox nor 360.

Not saying you're wrong but the impression I got was that the PS2, PS3 and PS4 trends were similar considering the staggered launches of PS2 and PS3. PS1 was a slow starter. 

This is without studying any numbers so any input would be appreciated. We need shadow with one of his charts. 

PS1 peaked year 3 or 4

PS2 peaked year 2

PS3 peaked year 5

PS4 peak so far is year 4 (could be year 5)

 

PS1 and PS2 had great legs after their successors launched while PS3 only lasted a couple years after its successor launched.

 

There really isnt any set trend for any of the console manufacturers.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Not saying you're wrong but the impression I got was that the PS2, PS3 and PS4 trends were similar considering the staggered launches of PS2 and PS3. PS1 was a slow starter. 

This is without studying any numbers so any input would be appreciated. We need shadow with one of his charts. 

PS1 peaked year 3 or 4

PS2 peaked year 2

PS3 peaked year 5

PS4 peak so far is year 4 (could be year 5)

 

PS1 and PS2 had great legs after their successors launched while PS3 only lasted a couple years after its successor launched.

 

There really isnt any set trend for any of the console manufacturers.

Thanks for the information but peaks aren't really a great indicator for disproving trends unless the peak years are a lot higher than the years around it. For instance PS2 could be 5M, 22M, 21M, 21M, 20M while PS3 could be 3M, 12M, 13M, 13M,  14M. Both are similar trends but with different peak years. 



RolStoppable said:

Not really.

When Switch and 3DS were about even on a global basis and Nintendo's forecast for the fiscal year was 10m, you projected that Switch won't beat 3DS lifetime sales despite people making you aware that Switch is pulling off the same numbers without a price cut and that it's to be expected that Nintendo will raise their forecast.

Now you make the same mistake by assuming that Switch will merely maintain its advantage over the 3DS in the USA instead of going with the more logical outcome that Switch will continue to widen the gap. In the coming months Switch won't only beat the 3DS by 20%, but by notably bigger margins.

The price point argument is just an excuse, it remains solely on Nintendo's end to maintain the value proposition of their systems just as the same applies to every other console manufacturer so we can't assume that the Switch will grow it's lead against the 3DS in terms of value proposition when the timing and margin of pricing strategy of each platform is variable ... (for all we know Nintendo could decide to forgo price cuts until next year and maybe by a smaller margin too compared to the 3DS's first price cut) 

It's pretty obvious Nintendo intentionally weighed on the trade-offs between value proposition vs marginal cost of production with the Switch so Nintendo will have to see how the long term effects will manifest and as to how it plays into their strategy regardless ... 

As for your last paragraph, we'll have to see since there's nothing in the short term that would suggest that the Switch's gap over the 3DS will widen by a noticeable margin ...



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SWORDF1SH said:
zorg1000 said:

PS1 peaked year 3 or 4

PS2 peaked year 2

PS3 peaked year 5

PS4 peak so far is year 4 (could be year 5)

 

PS1 and PS2 had great legs after their successors launched while PS3 only lasted a couple years after its successor launched.

 

There really isnt any set trend for any of the console manufacturers.

Thanks for the information but peaks aren't really a great indicator for disproving trends unless the peak years are a lot higher than the years around it. For instance PS2 could be 5M, 22M, 21M, 21M, 20M while PS3 could be 3M, 12M, 13M, 13M,  14M. Both are similar trends but with different peak years. 

Gotcha, but they still dont really follow the same trends. I would post charts if i knew how.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

These are two separate generations so, I don't understand what the point is. Will the Switch end up selling more units than the Xbox One will? If that's the question, then yes. But it can't "overtake" it because it's a generation ahead.



RolStoppable said:

You used very similar argumentation in the past and it always turned out wrong.

And of course there's something that suggests that Switch's gap over the 3DS will widen. I edited my previous post with the 3DS numbers of the year 2012. A lot of those marks are easy to beat, particularly in spring and in the holiday quarter.

Switch beating 3DS in Spring by a moderately larger margin than what it currently does doesn't help much in the overall numbers when the gains are vanishingly small since it's a very quiet quarter in terms of hardware sales and as for the holidays we'll have to see for ourselves ... 

In the meantime it'll be very interesting to see how Nintendo keeping their $300 price tag for 18+ months straight will affect their hardware sales throughout the year, presuming that if they do continue with their current pricing strategy ... 



fatslob-:O said:
RolStoppable said:

Not really.

When Switch and 3DS were about even on a global basis and Nintendo's forecast for the fiscal year was 10m, you projected that Switch won't beat 3DS lifetime sales despite people making you aware that Switch is pulling off the same numbers without a price cut and that it's to be expected that Nintendo will raise their forecast.

Now you make the same mistake by assuming that Switch will merely maintain its advantage over the 3DS in the USA instead of going with the more logical outcome that Switch will continue to widen the gap. In the coming months Switch won't only beat the 3DS by 20%, but by notably bigger margins.

The price point argument is just an excuse, it remains solely on Nintendo's end to maintain the value proposition of their systems just as the same applies to every other console manufacturer so we can't assume that the Switch will grow it's lead against the 3DS in terms of value proposition when the timing and margin of pricing strategy of each platform is variable ... (for all we know Nintendo could decide to forgo price cuts until next year and maybe by a smaller margin too compared to the 3DS's first price cut) 

It's pretty obvious Nintendo intentionally weighed on the trade-offs between value proposition vs marginal cost of production with the Switch so Nintendo will have to see how the long term effects will manifest and as to how it plays into their strategy regardless ... 

As for your last paragraph, we'll have to see since there's nothing in the short term that would suggest that the Switch's gap over the 3DS will widen by a noticeable margin ...

How is that an excuse? The fact that Swich is outselling 3DS by ~20% while being ~75% more expensive shows that is has significantly higher potential in the US.

And yes signs do point to Switch furthering the gap in the coming months.

In Jan 2012 (4 week NPD), 3DS did ~160k (40k/week)

In Jan 2018 (5 week NPD) , Switch did ~270k (54k/week)

Switch weekly sales were 35% higher than 3DS in their first January.

Feb/March are always a good deal higher than Jan.

3DS did ~260k & 220k in Feb/March 2012 while Switch will likely do 300-350k in Feb/March.

 

After 10 months on the market, Switch had a ~19% lead over 3DS in the US (4.11m vs 4.88m). After 13 months on the market (4.75m vs 5.80m), that lead is looking to grow closer to ~22%.

 

The gap is widening.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

RolStoppable said:
fatslob-:O said:
So far the X1 will likely reach 30M units LTD in NA going by it's probable sales curve and the 3DS will likely end up selling ~24M units in NA ...

According to NPD, the Switch has had a 20% tracking advantage against the 3DS and it's first month this year also showed a 20% tracking advantage on a weekly basis too so if we extrapolated that the Switch will keep it's 20% tracking advantage it will likely reach ~29M units in NA ...

The battle between the Switch and the X1 in NA is more competitive than what most people on either side of the argument would give it credit for so neither side has it in the bag ...

Not really.

When Switch and 3DS were about even on a global basis and Nintendo's forecast for the fiscal year was 10m, you projected that Switch won't beat 3DS lifetime sales despite people making you aware that Switch is pulling off the same numbers without a price cut and that it's to be expected that Nintendo will raise their forecast.

Now you make the same mistake by assuming that Switch will merely maintain its advantage over the 3DS in the USA instead of going with the more logical outcome that Switch will continue to widen the gap. In the coming months Switch won't only beat the 3DS by 20%, but by notably bigger margins.

EDIT: 3DS in 2012. NPD data, unless otherwise noted.

Feb - 262k
Mar - ~250k (VGC estimate, NPD thread not properly updated)
Apr - 125k
May - 114k
Jun - 155k
Jul - ~150k (estimate, no clear NPD data)
Aug - 176k (3DS XL launch month)
Sep - ~270k (VGC estimate)
Oct - 192k (minimum value based on calculations)
Nov - 540k
Dec - 1.25m

Most of those figures aren't hard to beat by a margin of more than 20%.

These are the numbers that Shadow gave me awhile back.

 

2012

160

262

225

125

114

155

128

176

213

192

540

1250



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.