Will Switch Overtake the Xbox One in the USA?

[zorg1000]

fatslob-:O said:

RolStoppable said:

Not really.

When Switch and 3DS were about even on a global basis and Nintendo's forecast for the fiscal year was 10m, you projected that Switch won't beat 3DS lifetime sales despite people making you aware that Switch is pulling off the same numbers without a price cut and that it's to be expected that Nintendo will raise their forecast.

Now you make the same mistake by assuming that Switch will merely maintain its advantage over the 3DS in the USA instead of going with the more logical outcome that Switch will continue to widen the gap. In the coming months Switch won't only beat the 3DS by 20%, but by notably bigger margins.

The price point argument is just an excuse, it remains solely on Nintendo's end to maintain the value proposition of their systems just as the same applies to every other console manufacturer so we can't assume that the Switch will grow it's lead against the 3DS in terms of value proposition when the timing and margin of pricing strategy of each platform is variable ... (for all we know Nintendo could decide to forgo price cuts until next year and maybe by a smaller margin too compared to the 3DS's first price cut) 

It's pretty obvious Nintendo intentionally weighed on the trade-offs between value proposition vs marginal cost of production with the Switch so Nintendo will have to see how the long term effects will manifest and as to how it plays into their strategy regardless ... 

As for your last paragraph, we'll have to see since there's nothing in the short term that would suggest that the Switch's gap over the 3DS will widen by a noticeable margin ...

How is that an excuse? The fact that Swich is outselling 3DS by ~20% while being ~75% more expensive shows that is has significantly higher potential in the US.

And yes signs do point to Switch furthering the gap in the coming months.

In Jan 2012 (4 week NPD), 3DS did ~160k (40k/week)

In Jan 2018 (5 week NPD) , Switch did ~270k (54k/week)

Switch weekly sales were 35% higher than 3DS in their first January.

Feb/March are always a good deal higher than Jan.

3DS did ~260k & 220k in Feb/March 2012 while Switch will likely do 300-350k in Feb/March.

 

After 10 months on the market, Switch had a ~19% lead over 3DS in the US (4.11m vs 4.88m). After 13 months on the market (4.75m vs 5.80m), that lead is looking to grow closer to ~22%.

 

The gap is widening.