By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Switch Overtake the Xbox One in the USA?

fatslob-:O on 10 March 2018
RolStoppable said:

I take it, you didn't take a look at the numbers. The 3DS sold only 540k units in November 2012.

If you paid attention to the Switch release schedule, you know that it is packed and easily outclasses the 3DS in the same period. I'll also use this opportunity to tell you what the 3DS's big holiday title of 2012 was: Paper Mario: Sticker Star.

The 3DS sold ~3.8m units in 2012. Switch beating that by 20% would be ~4.6m, so down from 2017's 4.8m. But considering the healthy lineup that Switch has in addition to the opportunity to offer value bundles or an outright price cut, it won't be down year over year in the USA.

Switch's current lineup is about as strong as the 3DS's in 2012 ... 

Most of it's notable titles are just ports of games that didn't help sell the WII U so why should it be assumed that the outcome will be any different especially in Nintendo's case of their games growing in overlap between userbases ? 

While the 3DS didn't have any big games for Q4 of 2012 in NA, it more than made up with it by releasing NSMB2 in Q3 ... 

3DS had NSMB2 while the Switch has SMB in NA so they're about even as far as system selling software potential goes ... 



Around the Network
fatslob-:O on 10 March 2018
RolStoppable said:

Indeed, I wonder why we should believe that the outcome would be any different between Wii U games launching on Wii U or Switch. If only we had something like Mario Kart 8 to look at.

Why are you using arguments from one year ago?

As far as I'm concerned Mario Kart 8 did help sell the WII U so how did it turn out for the other WII U titles again ?



zorg1000 on 10 March 2018
fatslob-:O said:
RolStoppable said:

I take it, you didn't take a look at the numbers. The 3DS sold only 540k units in November 2012.

If you paid attention to the Switch release schedule, you know that it is packed and easily outclasses the 3DS in the same period. I'll also use this opportunity to tell you what the 3DS's big holiday title of 2012 was: Paper Mario: Sticker Star.

The 3DS sold ~3.8m units in 2012. Switch beating that by 20% would be ~4.6m, so down from 2017's 4.8m. But considering the healthy lineup that Switch has in addition to the opportunity to offer value bundles or an outright price cut, it won't be down year over year in the USA.

Switch's current lineup is about as strong as the 3DS's in 2012 ... 

Most of it's notable titles are just ports of games that didn't help sell the WII U so why should it be assumed that the outcome will be any different especially in Nintendo's case of their games growing in overlap between userbases ? 

While the 3DS didn't have any big games for Q4 of 2012 in NA, it more than made up with it by releasing NSMB2 in Q3 ... 

3DS had NSMB2 while the Switch has SMB in NA so they're about even as far as system selling software potential goes ... 

3DS first party titles 2012

February-Mario & Sonic Olympics

March-Kid Icarus Uprising

April-Spirit Camera

May-Mario Tennis Open

August-New Super Mario Bros 2

October-Style Savvy Trendsetters, Art Academy

November-Paper Mario: Sticker Star

 

Switch first party titles 2018

February-Bayonetta 2

March-Kirby: Star Allies

April-Labo Variety & Labo Robot

May-DKC: Tropical Freeze, Hyrule Warriors

June-Mario Tennis Aces

July-Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker

Aug-Dec-Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Smash Bros

 

I cant see how anybody would think those lineups were similar despite a few of those Switch titles being Wii U ports (reminder that Mario Kart & Pokken are going to sell much better than the original releases).



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Cloudman on 10 March 2018

Well, there's always a chance that it could. The Switch looks to continue selling well, while the XBO looks to be lagging behind, at least compares to the 360 during that generation. Still, Switch has a lot of catching up to do if it can pass XBO in the US.



 

              

Dance my pretties!

The Official Art Thread      -      The Official Manga Thread      -      The Official Starbound Thread

quickrick on 10 March 2018
Shadow1980 said:
quickrick said:

you must be a sony fan.

Actually, no. I'm more of a Nintendo fan, but I've always been a multiplatform person. I have a PS4, an X1X (had a regular XBO before it), a Wii U, and a Switch. At the start of the generation, I defaulted to the PS4 for third-party games and only bought exclusives for the XBO, though since the X1X was released I've started to default to it, buying only exclusives for my PS4. In terms of time spent on any given system, on average I spend the most time on the XBO, though that's thanks mainly to Halo multiplayer.

https://psnprofiles.com/ShadowOfTheVoid_
https://www.xboxgamertag.com/search/ShadowOfTheVoid/

I was using sarcasm, because someone said anybody who thought switch might not surpass xbox is a sony fan. 



Around the Network
chakkra on 10 March 2018

I think it eventually will.  But nowhere near as soon as some people believe. I think it will take at least 3 more years for the Switch to be where the X1 is at the moment.  And is not like the X1 is just gonna stop selling.  I mean, in three more years the X1 will have sold at least 10 more millions. 

So yeah, I think the NS will need AT LEAST five more years to catch up with the X1.



fatslob-:O on 10 March 2018
Shadow1980 said:

Oh.

Now that I think of it, what does Switch vs. XBO have to do with Sony, anyway?

It's just a self defense mechanism of accusation, basically an ad hominem ...

Posters here are frequently labelled as a biased "Sony fan" anytime they express negative doubt about Nintendo on these boards just so they could perform character assassination to undermine the perception of another user ...



flashfire926 on 10 March 2018
fatslob-:O said:
RolStoppable said:

I take it, you didn't take a look at the numbers. The 3DS sold only 540k units in November 2012.

If you paid attention to the Switch release schedule, you know that it is packed and easily outclasses the 3DS in the same period. I'll also use this opportunity to tell you what the 3DS's big holiday title of 2012 was: Paper Mario: Sticker Star.

The 3DS sold ~3.8m units in 2012. Switch beating that by 20% would be ~4.6m, so down from 2017's 4.8m. But considering the healthy lineup that Switch has in addition to the opportunity to offer value bundles or an outright price cut, it won't be down year over year in the USA.

Switch's current lineup is about as strong as the 3DS's in 2012 ... 

Most of it's notable titles are just ports of games that didn't help sell the WII U so why should it be assumed that the outcome will be any different especially in Nintendo's case of their games growing in overlap between userbases ? 

While the 3DS didn't have any big games for Q4 of 2012 in NA, it more than made up with it by releasing NSMB2 in Q3 ... 

3DS had NSMB2 while the Switch has SMB in NA so they're about even as far as system selling software potential goes ... 

First off, we have not a single idea about what is coming after july, besides smash. so that cant be made yet. 

And those games not selling were not the games fault, it was the WiiU's fault for being a shitty console that no one wanted to buy.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

ironmanDX on 10 March 2018
zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

its going to beat 3ds but beating xbox is not a sure thing, especially with how nintendo consoles usually lose momentum much faster. 

Nintendo consoles lose momentum faster than Xbox based on what exactly?

Xbox

Launch-Nov 2001

Peak-2004 (3rd year)

Replaced-Nov 2005

360

Launch-Nov 2005

Peak-2011 (6th year)

Replaced-Nov 2013

What does a normal cycle for Xbox look like?

 

Here are the Nintendo consoles since 2001

GBA

Launch-June 2001

Peak-2003 (3rd year)

Replaced-Nov 2004

 

GC

Launch-Nov 2001

Peak-2003 (2nd year)

Replaced-Nov 2006

 

DS

Launch-Nov 2004

Peak-2008 or 2009 (4th/5th year)

Replaced-March 2011

Wii

Launch-Nov 2006

Peak-2008 (2nd year)

Replaced-Nov 2012

 

3DS

Launch-March 2011

Peak-2011 (1st year)

Replaced-March 2017

 

Wii U

Launch-Nov 2012

Peak-2014 (2nd year)

Replaced-March 2017

 

 

Based on that when does a normal Xbox console lose momentum and when does a normal Nintendo console lose momentum?

If Switch was just a home console than you could make a good guess but its also a handheld which are not nearly as consistent.

 

Saying Nintendo consoles normally lose momentum faster than Xbox consoles is based on absolutely nothing.

Just because you can't see the cliff, doesn't mean he can't!



fatslob-:O on 11 March 2018
flashfire926 said:

First off, we have not a single idea about what is coming after july, besides smash. so that cant be made yet. 

And those games not selling were not the games fault, it was the WiiU's fault for being a shitty console that no one wanted to buy.

That's absolutely not true, the saying "software sells hardware" still rings true to this very day as platforms live and die by it's library ... 

PS4's victory over it's competitor the X1 was skewed by just a few games even though both largely shared a similar library and it's because of the fact that Sony convinced customers that these very few exclusive games mattered to an extent that it became the tipping of their purchases ...

There's tons of blunders that Nintendo did with WII U software. For instance, why was their Wii franchise largely absent on their new system ? Were SM3DW as good as SMG ? (that goes for SSB, MP8, DKC as well compared to their predecessor's) Why wasn't Zelda ready at the beginning of WII U's launch ? Where was Animal Crossing ? 

Along with WII U's missing third party games, Nintendo itself pulled so much shit off with the WII U ...