Will Switch Overtake the Xbox One in the USA?

[zorg1000]

fatslob-:O said:

RolStoppable said:

I take it, you didn't take a look at the numbers. The 3DS sold only 540k units in November 2012.

If you paid attention to the Switch release schedule, you know that it is packed and easily outclasses the 3DS in the same period. I'll also use this opportunity to tell you what the 3DS's big holiday title of 2012 was: Paper Mario: Sticker Star.

The 3DS sold ~3.8m units in 2012. Switch beating that by 20% would be ~4.6m, so down from 2017's 4.8m. But considering the healthy lineup that Switch has in addition to the opportunity to offer value bundles or an outright price cut, it won't be down year over year in the USA.

Switch's current lineup is about as strong as the 3DS's in 2012 ... 

Most of it's notable titles are just ports of games that didn't help sell the WII U so why should it be assumed that the outcome will be any different especially in Nintendo's case of their games growing in overlap between userbases ? 

While the 3DS didn't have any big games for Q4 of 2012 in NA, it more than made up with it by releasing NSMB2 in Q3 ... 

3DS had NSMB2 while the Switch has SMB in NA so they're about even as far as system selling software potential goes ... 

3DS first party titles 2012

February-Mario & Sonic Olympics

March-Kid Icarus Uprising

April-Spirit Camera

May-Mario Tennis Open

August-New Super Mario Bros 2

October-Style Savvy Trendsetters, Art Academy

November-Paper Mario: Sticker Star

 

Switch first party titles 2018

February-Bayonetta 2

March-Kirby: Star Allies

April-Labo Variety & Labo Robot

May-DKC: Tropical Freeze, Hyrule Warriors

June-Mario Tennis Aces

July-Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker

Aug-Dec-Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Smash Bros

 

I cant see how anybody would think those lineups were similar despite a few of those Switch titles being Wii U ports (reminder that Mario Kart & Pokken are going to sell much better than the original releases).