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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 vs Switch: Launch aligned, who hits 100 million first?

 

which will reach 100m faster?

PS4 94 70.68%
 
Switch 39 29.32%
 
Total:133
zorg1000 on 20 February 2018
quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

So you think PS4 had less than 1 million shipped vs sold difference at the end of 2014 while Switch had over 2 million difference end of 2017?

Ya like LipeJJ said, youre clueless.

ps4 shipped ltd 19.9 million, they announced 18.5 million sold through, IDK what switch had. it could be over 2 million difference easily, everything is a guess till nintendo give out official numbers, so far we only have 13 million as of jan 30, so no  need for the clueless comment when you are the one. 3ds first year they way over shipped they had a 2.5-3 million difference between sold through.   

 

Seriously dude, stop spouting bullshit. Youre back to saying it sold 13m as of Jan 30 when you agreed in a previous thread that you were wrong?

Please just stop posting until you can remain consistent.



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Azuren on 20 February 2018
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Azuren said:

Fun fact: PS2, the best selling console in history, had a paltry first year of only 3m. Wii, which ended up selling tens of millions less, sold 14m in its first year.

 

First year sales aren't indicative of lifetime sales.

I completely agree.    Also DS sales were somewhat disappointing its first year.

I'm pretty sure Switch sales will be disappointing this year, but once Pokemon comes out it will sell like never before.

I'm certain Switch will do fantastic. My worry for it is more long term than that.



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HyrulianScrolls on 21 February 2018

Well obviously PS4 will hit it first, has a massive 60m+ sales lead and might hit 100 by year's end. But I'd bet it takes Switch less time to get to 100 than it does PS4. PS4 will take a little over 5 years or so, won't be surprised if Switch can do it by the end of 2020 or Q1 2021 (3 years and 9 months to 4 years).



LipeJJ on 21 February 2018
quickrick said:
LipeJJ said:

I mean, you believe BotW, Odyssey and Splatoon 2 will outsell Pokémon, 2D Mario, Animal Crossing and Smash Bros.? That show how clueless you are. And I listed 5 franchises, which is more than enough if they put out 2 per year. Not to mention second versions of the big franchises you mentioned and new IPs. lol

you forgot mario kart 8, both mario games will do over 40 million together and zelda is on its way to 10 million, splatoon maybe 8 million, thats 58 million, pokemon will do 20 million, the other 3, 35 million together, not that clueless when you think about things ;)

Wow, I'm impressed. I've seen people try to spin stuff before, but this is a whole new level. Btw, you just proved my point with your math.

Just one more thing: I agree that both Mario games will do >40m together, but that doesn't stop 2D Mario being bigger than 3D Mario (Odyssey). Pokémon alone will be bigger than Zelda and Splatoon 2 combined, so there you go... 3 of the big 4 you mentioned are already "gone". I think you're confused and actually didn't do your math. It's kinda hard to predict exact numbers for future games, but knowing that they're historically bigger than the ones already released, except for MK (which is an evergreen title that will sell most of its lifetime sales after the first year on the market), there's no reason to underestimate them. 



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FarleyMcFirefly on 21 February 2018

Switch! Record breaking first year, Labo around the corner (which has the potential to be huge and sell to a completely new market). This will be the first console to have massive 3D Mario games, Zelda games and also mainline Pokemon.

I think the Switch has a good chance to beat PS4 to 100 million (launches aligned).
If it doesn't, I don't see it selling less than 100 million lifetime at this point.



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outlawauron on 21 February 2018

The only thing I've learned from this thread is that people are really counting on Labo to push units and really believe that the new 2018 Pokemon will be a true successor to the handheld series.



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quickrick on 21 February 2018
zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

ps4 shipped ltd 19.9 million, they announced 18.5 million sold through, IDK what switch had. it could be over 2 million difference easily, everything is a guess till nintendo give out official numbers, so far we only have 13 million as of jan 30, so no  need for the clueless comment when you are the one. 3ds first year they way over shipped they had a 2.5-3 million difference between sold through.   

 

Seriously dude, stop spouting bullshit. Youre back to saying it sold 13m as of Jan 30 when you agreed in a previous thread that you were wrong?

Please just stop posting until you can remain consistent.

My point was we don't know what switch sold through by the end  2017, you said that 2 million on store shelves would be insane when its really not at all, 13 million remark was used as thats the only official number, so i take that as nintendo not reaching 14 yet, it could 13.9 idk it's all speculation till we get official sold through number with out any missing data .



chakkra on 21 February 2018
LipeJJ said:
quickrick said:

you forgot mario kart 8, both mario games will do over 40 million together and zelda is on its way to 10 million, splatoon maybe 8 million, thats 58 million, pokemon will do 20 million, the other 3, 35 million together, not that clueless when you think about things ;)

Wow, I'm impressed. I've seen people try to spin stuff before, but this is a whole new level. Btw, you just proved my point with your math.

Just one more thing: I agree that both Mario games will do >40m together, but that doesn't stop 2D Mario being bigger than 3D Mario (Odyssey). Pokémon alone will be bigger than Zelda and Splatoon 2 combined, so there you go... 3 of the big 4 you mentioned are already "gone". I think you're confused and actually didn't do your math. It's kinda hard to predict exact numbers for future games, but knowing that they're historically bigger than the ones already released, except for MK (which is an evergreen title that will sell most of its lifetime sales after the first year on the market), there's no reason to underestimate them. 

VGC numbers:

New Super Mario Bros. U    5.64m

Super Mario 3D World     4.95m

Now, correct me if l'm wrong but, wans't NSMBU heavily bundled during most of its lifetime?



Azuren on 21 February 2018
RolStoppable said:
Azuren said:

Fun fact: PS2, the best selling console in history, had a paltry first year of only 3m. Wii, which ended up selling tens of millions less, sold 14m in its first year.

First year sales aren't indicative of lifetime sales.

While your point about first year sales not being indicative of lifetime sales is valid, your fun fact isn't a fact at all.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_2_sales

Through March 2001 (13 months of availability) the PS2 had shipped 10.61m units, so a sell-through extrapolation for twelve months isn't going to be anywhere close to 3m, but rather in the ballpark of about thrice that number. For a good chunk of that first year the PS2 was Japan-only, so 8-9m in its first year is an impressive number.

On topic: Switch.

I misread when I looked it up. I think the number I found may have been referring to only one territory. The point stands that PS2's first year was trampled by Wii's first year, just not by ten million.



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zorg1000 on 21 February 2018
chakkra said:
LipeJJ said:

Wow, I'm impressed. I've seen people try to spin stuff before, but this is a whole new level. Btw, you just proved my point with your math.

Just one more thing: I agree that both Mario games will do >40m together, but that doesn't stop 2D Mario being bigger than 3D Mario (Odyssey). Pokémon alone will be bigger than Zelda and Splatoon 2 combined, so there you go... 3 of the big 4 you mentioned are already "gone". I think you're confused and actually didn't do your math. It's kinda hard to predict exact numbers for future games, but knowing that they're historically bigger than the ones already released, except for MK (which is an evergreen title that will sell most of its lifetime sales after the first year on the market), there's no reason to underestimate them. 

VGC numbers:

New Super Mario Bros. U    5.64m

Super Mario 3D World     4.95m

Now, correct me if l'm wrong but, wans't NSMBU heavily bundled during most of its lifetime?

No, NSMBU got a bundle about a year after launch then was replaced by the 3D World bundle about a year later which was later replaced by the Mario Kart bundle which was later replaced by Smash Bros & Splatoon bundles.

The only game where sales primarily came from bundles was Nintendo Land.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.