VideoGameAccountant said:
Again, the problem is you are looking at the CURRENT generation. I'm looking at the FUTURE generation. We are in year 5 of PS4 and XBox One's life. The new systems will probably be out next year. In the normal lifecycle for a console, the last year or two is about gearing up for the next generation. If you look at Microsoft, would you say they are building momentum or losing it? Does Microsoft look better now then they did a year or two ago and the answer is no. 2017 was a year full of canceled projects and delays. 2018 doesn't look much better. Microsoft has a good holiday, but a lot of that was due to the improving economy, not necessarily good business sense on the part of Microsoft. At the end of the Wii U's life, Nintendo made it very clear what their intention was and still pushed out projects for the system as they geared up for the Switch. Microsoft is stalling out, not gearing up. What you are focused on is current sales, not what Microsoft is going to look like in Gen 9 if they will even be around then? 35 million is not a great number, to be honest. It's pretty weak coming off Microsoft's most successful system. That means they need to be improving. The late stages of a generation are a good measure of the next. Nintendo and Sony both showed this with their failed systems. Microsoft is showing they are weakening, not strengthening. Moreover, you don't understand the business of Nintendo and Microsoft. Nintendo always has a large reserve of cash on hand which allows them to reposition when the market doesn't go their way. Microsoft is a massive corporation who's bottom line is not video games but Operating System and Application. Does Microsoft want to put in the billions to design, market, manufacture and supply a new system if they are only going to sell 35 million? Moreover, XBox is not profitable and never has been. Microsoft hides XBox with Skype to mask that the money it makes is low and isn't enough to cover fixed cost. This article does a good job of explaining: (https://learnbonds.com/122889/microsoft-corporation-msft-loses-money-on-xbox-one-sales/). Here is a tech journalist saying something similar. (https://www.petri.com/paul-thurrotts-short-takes-microsoft-earnings-special-edition-7). And, of course, this has been a long-term issue with XBox losing 3 billion over 10 years. (https://www.neowin.net/news/report-microsofts-xbox-division-has-lost-nearly-3-billion-in-10-years). So how is Microsoft going to turn XBox around if 2017 was bad, they are less than 50 percent of their chief competitor and the division loses billions. That said, my argument has been primarily about consumer retention. From what I'm seeing, Microsoft doesn't have that. You mention sales a lot, but the next XBox needs to do BETTER than that, not the same. If there is little interest in XBox now, will there be any in the future. Nintendo can at least hold on to their diehard fans and have always had a successful handheld line. Microsoft doesn't even have that. This company can't even get a game out. My expectation is they wont or they'll leave. You can disagree with me on the Wii U if you like, but games make or break a console. The Switch would not have done well if Zelda wasn't such a hit. It's the software that makes or breaks a system. It's also why I'm critical of Nintendo's early 2018 which is full of games that didn't help the Wii U. |
Huh, you're making a lot of assumptions. Last gen wasnt a normal generation cycle and mid gen upgrades gives the impression this could be a long generation as well. So I'm not gonna say your assumptions are wrong. But I dont expect the 9th gen until holiday of 2020 or 2021. I dont get the impression either company want to rush a new machine.
2017 was not a strong year for exclusives on X1, although there was some notable content and steady sales for the year. Hence, X1 had basically the same sales last year even without much exclusives to boast about. 35 million is not an amazing but a viable userbase. Depending how long this gen goes maybe they will achieve a respectable 60-70 million units sold. That's with the assumption there is going to be steady sales.
You argue I'm not focusing on the 9th gen enough, but I'm considering MS still has a lot happening this gen. With a few new notable games they could create a perception of "strengthening" to you. I'm at the very least optimistic they can do better than 2017 in regard to quantity, but I actually enjoy games like Halo Wars 2, Forza 7 (racer of the year), and Cuphead. But a game like Halo 6, Gears 5, maybe Fable 4 will have more mass appeal. Apparently new IPs are in the works as well, so there is still a lot to be curious about this gen.
So do you understand X1 is still selling? You speak as if that 35 million is a number that wont change. Also, console manufactures no longer take big hits on hardware. Which is why consoles like OG Xbox and PS3 were financial disasters. Youre getting off topic though. Not much to do with the future of Xbox or X1. I'm not gonna bother clicking the links you provided, as it has little to do with the current direction of X1 and MS gaming future.
If X1 has simply maintains 8 million sales a year, that means it will continue to have a viable userbase that major developers continue to support. Also, putting games on Windows does boost gaming revenue. I thought 2017 could be a bad year for X1 console sales given perception, but it was actually fine.
Hyperbole much? They did get games out last year and several coming this year. So they can get games out, but I think its important they don't put junk out. So the delays MIGHT be a good thing.
Wii U had Mario Kart 8, Splatoon, NSMBU, Mario 3D World, Mario Maker, Donkey Kong, Xenoblade, Smash Bros, Pikmin, Pokken and Bayonetta 2. Meanwhile Zelda was anticipated for years but didnt stimulate much hardware sales for Wii U. That's actually a lot of notable content for the measly sales. Again, the PRIMARY issues with Wii U are the tablet control was cumbersome and it was too expensive. The cheapest I ever saw Wii U was $249 on a Black Friday. Meanwhile some of this same software you're mocking will do well on Switch or had sequels.
Last edited by Mr Puggsly - on 30 January 2018Recently Completed:
River City: Rival Showdown for 3DS (3/5) - River City: Tokyo Rumble for 3DS (4/5) - Zelda: BotW for Wii U (5/5) - Zelda: BotW for Switch (5/5) - Zelda: Link's Awakening for Switch (4/5) - Rage 2 for X1X (4/5) - Rage for 360 (3/5) - Streets of Rage 4 for X1/PC (4/5) - Gears 5 for X1X (5/5) - Mortal Kombat 11 for X1X (5/5) - Doom 64 for N64 (emulator) (3/5) - Crackdown 3 for X1S/X1X (4/5) - Infinity Blade III - for iPad 4 (3/5) - Infinity Blade II - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Infinity Blade - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Wolfenstein: The Old Blood for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Origins for X1 (3/5) - Uncharted: Lost Legacy for PS4 (4/5) - EA UFC 3 for X1 (4/5) - Doom for X1 (4/5) - Titanfall 2 for X1 (4/5) - Super Mario 3D World for Wii U (4/5) - South Park: The Stick of Truth for X1 BC (4/5) - Call of Duty: WWII for X1 (4/5) -Wolfenstein II for X1 - (4/5) - Dead or Alive: Dimensions for 3DS (4/5) - Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite for X1 (3/5) - Halo Wars 2 for X1/PC (4/5) - Halo Wars: DE for X1 (4/5) - Tekken 7 for X1 (4/5) - Injustice 2 for X1 (4/5) - Yakuza 5 for PS3 (3/5) - Battlefield 1 (Campaign) for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Syndicate for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: MW Remastered for X1 (4/5) - Donkey Kong Country Returns for 3DS (4/5) - Forza Horizon 3 for X1 (5/5)
