With the first week of 2018, Splatoon2 surpasses the 3ds sku of DQXI! There is a chance due to lack of numbers Splat2 outsold it in the final week of 2017 but we will use week 1 instead (unless we get mc top 100 of the year later)

DQ11 numbers for both ps4/3ds are the absolute max it could possibly be for each system. So splat2 jn reality is alot further than what is shown below (especially against ps4 sku)

Splat2 vs DQ11

Splatoon2: 1.883mil

DQ(ps4): 1.414mil
DQ(3ds): 1.814mil
DQ(Com): 3.228mil

Goal 1 Ps4: BEATEN! 470k+
Goal 2 3ds: BEATEN! 70k+
Goal 3 DQ: Left... 1.355mil

Will splat2 outsell dq11 in japan lifetime? Post and give your thoughts

I think it will.

When you say combined, are you including the inevitable DQXI Switch version? That might be a hard one to be, if included.

How much do you expect it to sell?

Around 1.6 million. 2 million if it gets lucky with double dippers.

I really don't know, the Splatoon phenomenon in Japan is crazy but so Dragon Quest. I also seriously think Square Enix dropped the ball by announcing the Switch would get XI and not have it available at launch, I suspect if XI is released this year with some sort of add on feature in Japan it does a million physical copies sold. Last year it probably would have outsold all other skus at launch.

Splatoon 2 has the potential but I can't ever bet against a DQ game in Japan.

Seeing the legs Splatoon 2 has and considering how Switch is just starting it totally will. Although i think it will be complicated to beat with the Switch version included.

But who knows at this point if people will really buy the Switch version if it comes out so late.

Naaaah. The Switch version will do at least another million IMO.

Where IS that game? I had honestly expected to see it by now, yet it isn't even properly announced yet.

It should pass the totals of those 2, but as people said above, if we count the Switch version of DQ I don't think it will be able to reach it.