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I really don't know, the Splatoon phenomenon in Japan is crazy but so Dragon Quest. I also seriously think Square Enix dropped the ball by announcing the Switch would get XI and not have it available at launch, I suspect if XI is released this year with some sort of add on feature in Japan it does a million physical copies sold. Last year it probably would have outsold all other skus at launch.

Splatoon 2 has the potential but I can't ever bet against a DQ game in Japan.