By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Kimishima hopes to sell over 20M Nintendo Switch units next FY.

cosmic_drift said:
What's that old saying about under-predicting and over-delivering?...

You can't underpredict and overdeliver on public statements because that is a way to manipulate market.

You can at most after having the center of prediction and the margin of error announce your target as the lower margin for safety and work to achieve the higher margin. But when people talk about underpredicting is going lower than what they are "certain" they will achieve. To comply with the target and margins is why they reveal (even up) the numbers, if they didn't then on the FY closure they would have a very big overdelivery.

Have to remind you that a good plan/project is one you deliver in the right time, with the right budget the right thing... so if you make a project to take 18 months and cost 100M but achieve it in 12 months and 50M it just shows you don't know how to plan not that you have really outdone yourself (unless of course some technology or condition that was almost impossible to predict happened and made the project get done much faster and cheaper, and usually you would also review the project for these parameters).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
tbone51 said:
celador said:
don't see it myself, especially given how weak the first six-nine months of the year look to be in terms of software

perhaps if they have a couple of big hitters in the holiday period they can hit 15-16m, but i think 20m is too optimistic

Ummm we don't know even half of the lineup for Jan to Sept yet. We have to wait until at least the Jan direct before judging if it's weak or not. 2017 release schedule wasn't even fully known in till summer. 

sure, but last year we knew that a lot of teams hadn't released anything in a while and hadn't had any announcements. This time it's different. A lot of teams have now released something or had an announcement already, and the big hitters announced are all holiday 2018 at the earliest. The only system seller unannounced that might hit in the first half of the year is Animal Crossing. Aside from that, it's looking like KIrby and Yoshi and not a lot else for the first half of the year



Games like Bayonetta 3, No More Heroes 3, Wolfenstein II and Metroid Prime 4 will be system sellers for core gamers, while casual gamers will appreciate Pokémon and Animal Crossing. I can see Pokémon for Switch moving nearly 10m units alone.

If announced, Smash Bros will be a top mover. I can see Pikmin 4 selling really well.

I don't anticipate Fire Emblem, Dragon Quest 11, Yoshi or Kirby moving many consoles, but I do see them each selling well.

They're going to need to pick up the pace of the Virtual Console and Online experience if they want to keep momentum going.



celador said:
tbone51 said:

Ummm we don't know even half of the lineup for Jan to Sept yet. We have to wait until at least the Jan direct before judging if it's weak or not. 2017 release schedule wasn't even fully known in till summer. 

sure, but last year we knew that a lot of teams hadn't released anything in a while and hadn't had any announcements. This time it's different. A lot of teams have now released something or had an announcement already, and the big hitters announced are all holiday 2018 at the earliest. The only system seller unannounced that might hit in the first half of the year is Animal Crossing. Aside from that, it's looking like KIrby and Yoshi and not a lot else for the first half of the year

Did they? (Serious Question) out of all 1st party made games that came out last year there were...

ARMS

Splatoon

SMO

BotW

XC2

 

We could still hear from the team that could be releasing LM3 as well as another wiiu port deluxe (like pokken/mk8d). Pikmin 4 ia basically ready (a summer title fits). Like you said AC. We have Fire Emblem, and potientially SSB that will be made by i think Namco like the previous entries. 

 

Either way Direct coming up will give us a clearer picture. Not to long now hopefully



Troyhend said:

Games like Bayonetta 3, No More Heroes 3, Wolfenstein II and Metroid Prime 4 will be system sellers for core gamers, while casual gamers will appreciate Pokémon and Animal Crossing. I can see Pokémon for Switch moving nearly 10m units alone.

If announced, Smash Bros will be a top mover. I can see Pikmin 4 selling really well.

I don't anticipate Fire Emblem, Dragon Quest 11, Yoshi or Kirby moving many consoles, but I do see them each selling well.

They're going to need to pick up the pace of the Virtual Console and Online experience if they want to keep momentum going.

The 4 games you first mention wont come out intill 2019 imo. (Well i mean not counting wolfenstein)

 

The other titles keep momentum going i agree with the big hitting AC/Smash/Pokemon.

 

I expect pokemon comong out 2019 but in .March



Around the Network

Well, hoping and expecting are different things.

I also hope to earn double the money next year, but I don't expect it. 😉



TorterraBoy said:
Well they better have Smash Bros coming out in 2018

I'd say Pokémon is more likely at this point.



tbone51 said:
dark_gh0st_b0y said:
all they need is a total-reboot pokemon title

They did that with gen 5 and its the lowest selling main entry

nah, gen 5 was just another gen

I mean starting again from gen 1 in a whole new perspective, upgrade Pokemon like they did with BoTW, scrap Ash, he's had enough traveling, start a new, dark era of Pokemon >.<



don't mind my username, that was more than 10 years ago, I'm a different person now, amazing how people change ^_^

tbone51 said:
Troyhend said:

Games like Bayonetta 3, No More Heroes 3, Wolfenstein II and Metroid Prime 4 will be system sellers for core gamers, while casual gamers will appreciate Pokémon and Animal Crossing. I can see Pokémon for Switch moving nearly 10m units alone.

If announced, Smash Bros will be a top mover. I can see Pikmin 4 selling really well.

I don't anticipate Fire Emblem, Dragon Quest 11, Yoshi or Kirby moving many consoles, but I do see them each selling well.

They're going to need to pick up the pace of the Virtual Console and Online experience if they want to keep momentum going.

The 4 games you first mention wont come out intill 2019 imo. (Well i mean not counting wolfenstein)

 

The other titles keep momentum going i agree with the big hitting AC/Smash/Pokemon.

 

I expect pokemon comong out 2019 but in .March

I don't know. With the 3DS essentially dead at this point, and all their resources being utilized for the Switch, I can see them pumping out first party content a lot quicker.

Game Freak always works quick, so I can see them meeting Pokémon deadline by Winter 2018.



celador said:
tbone51 said:

Ummm we don't know even half of the lineup for Jan to Sept yet. We have to wait until at least the Jan direct before judging if it's weak or not. 2017 release schedule wasn't even fully known in till summer. 

sure, but last year we knew that a lot of teams hadn't released anything in a while and hadn't had any announcements. This time it's different. A lot of teams have now released something or had an announcement already, and the big hitters announced are all holiday 2018 at the earliest. The only system seller unannounced that might hit in the first half of the year is Animal Crossing. Aside from that, it's looking like KIrby and Yoshi and not a lot else for the first half of the year

The big hitters this fiscal year were Mario Kart Deluxe in April, Splatoon 2 in July & Mario Odyssey in Oct with a handful of smaller support titles in between.

Next fiscal year could very well look like

Smash Bros Deluxe-April

Animal Crossing-July

Pokemon-Oct

Then games like Yoshi, Kirby, Fire Emblem and a few other unannounced games to fill in the gaps.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.