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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Kimishima hopes to sell over 20M Nintendo Switch units next FY.

Roterfan on 06 January 2018
tbone51 said:
Pillertriller said:
20 millions? Then the PS4 will probably sell 30 millions

Thats good logic. Hopefully switch can do 25mil so ps4 can automatically do 37.5mil!

both will do 20 mio and this is fine



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xMetroid on 06 January 2018
cosmic_drift said:
I honestly think this would be a better prospect for the Switch's third year. Historically Nintendo consoles have done their best during their latter years rather than their early ones.

It's not only Nintendo it's every consoles. If you look at Vgchartz numbers, Switch is destroying the first Christmas season of the PS4 and beating it's 2nd one. Switch is new and the casual market barely know it exist still. It's also expensive when you see there is no real bundle and it's almost 400$ for console + game while PS4/One have bundles at 250$ with a game.

 

Consoles don't peak in their first year and PS4/One are in it right now. Switch will be bigger next year imo.



zorg1000 on 06 January 2018
cosmic_drift said:
zorg1000 said:

You sure about that?

Nintendo console sales usually hit their peak during second or third year, and then begin to taper off around the fifth year.

Here is a chart for the 3DS:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/262074/worldwide-sales-of-the-nintendo-3ds-since-2004/

And one for Nintendo home consoles:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/227012/lifetime-unit-sales-of-nintendos-home-consoles/

But your last post said they usually do better in their latter years rather than early years.



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tbone51 on 06 January 2018
Roterfan said:
tbone51 said:

Thats good logic. Hopefully switch can do 25mil so ps4 can automatically do 37.5mil!

both will do 20 mio and this is fine

Not disagreeing with that. I think ps4 can continue to sell well. 20mil+ for both would be great. I dont see the ps4 selling under 17mil next year so 20mil is most likely going to happen. Switch is any1 guess (but itll be up obv YoY)



PAOerfulone on 06 January 2018

I was referring to releasing in 2018.



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cosmic_drift on 06 January 2018
zorg1000 said:
cosmic_drift said:

Nintendo console sales usually hit their peak during second or third year, and then begin to taper off around the fifth year.

Here is a chart for the 3DS:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/262074/worldwide-sales-of-the-nintendo-3ds-since-2004/

And one for Nintendo home consoles:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/227012/lifetime-unit-sales-of-nintendos-home-consoles/

But your last post said they usually do better in their latter years rather than early years.

Well I guess mid-year would make more sense then, not latter.



VideoGameAccountant on 06 January 2018
Jumpin said:
VideoGameAccountant said: 

Nintendo was never competitive in Europe all the way back to the third generation. The Sega Master System outsold the NES despite the NES dominating the US and Japan. It's no surprise that Nintendo's systems have done the best there. 

Sony's rise in gaming had more to do with them removing the licensing requirements from and Sony was able to leverage the company's larger asset pool. When Sega was beaten, Sony took the market from them.

Nintendo does well in some European countries (like France) and poorly in others (like the UK). I don't see that changing unless Nintendo can create a new megahit that appeals there or hope the Switch takes off like the DS did. Europe, in general, doesn't have the same iconography with Nintendo as other regions do, and Nintendo relies heavily on that. Not to say this will hurt Nintendo's ability to sell 20 million. It's more why they struggle compared to Sony systems. 

Huh? Nintendo has most certainly been competitive in Europe. Nintendo Wii was sold out across the continent for 2-3 years. Nintendo handhelds have always been huge in Europe as well. I remember people standing out in the snow for hours waiting to get a Wii. The reason the NES and SNES aren’t more highly represented are mostly because of bad distribution. NES didn’t really have proper availability until after the Mega Drive had already launched, until around the time of the SNES release. Many people were forced into importing software as well, most of my SNES library is imported. N64 didn’t do well because of pricing, games were usually 2-3 times more expensive than PSX games; also, no RPGs hurt N64, because that was the hot genre through Europe back then, and they have remained somewhat big. GameCube didn’t have anything wrong with it except for its weird controller and toxic “kiddie console” reputation.

I think Switch has a good shot at being bigger than the Wii overall. Particularly because of mass transit. Especially if more traditional style RPG battle games come out (like Pokemon), and more non-action simulation type games; it’s why Nintendo handhelds have been big. Stardew Valley is a good start. But the Wii has that party demographic, and I don’t mean “party” as in 3-5 nerds in a basement, but party with drinking/dancing and attractive/fun people. Switch is probably the first console that has a shot at that demographic, we’ll see.

I may have phrased it wrong. I should say that Nintendo isn't as competitive in Europe as they are in the US and Japan. Nintendo captured the US with the NES but, as you point out, Nintendo wasn't able to reach Europe. Part of this was legal trouble in the US over the rigths to Donkey Kong. I point out the iconography because in the US, the NES was a big deal. Mario Mania was a big deal. This is why New Super Mario Bros Wii did so well in the states and why most of Nintendo's successful systems sell the best in the US (the DS being the exception as it actually did worse in the US). The Switch has a similar issue. Breath of the Wild kick started the Switch here and Classic Zelda has been popular in the US since the NES days. Again, Europe didn't get the hayday of Zelda, so it's not the same. This is also why Horizon sold better than Zelda in some countries despite not doing that in Japan or the US. 

I would say your assessment is correct. My point was that Nintendo will look weaker in Europe because it's historically been a harder region for them to reach. The NES and SNES weren't as big so Europeans don't have the same relation to Nintendo as us in the states do. When comparing the two, people often claim Sony is strong in Europe but ignore the fact that Nintendo had issues there before the Playstation was a thing (which you pointed out). 



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