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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Kimishima hopes to sell over 20M Nintendo Switch units next FY.

curl-6 said:

For that they'll need a price cut, Pokemon, or both.

I am a bit concerned that Switch sales could stall in 2018; so far there are no confirmed system sellers for the year, and it's looking like the first few months will have no major new releases at all.

curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

How many times does it need to be stated that at the beginning of 2017 we had only 1 announced 1st party title for the year?

Wait until the January Direct before being concerned.

Yeah but that was when they were holding back sharing much about the system itself at all. Now that it's out, why the secrecy?

And do we even know there will be a January Direct?

 

Does not necessarily means they will need price cut, I mean Switch is currently selling great for $300 without out game, so we will definitely first start seeing bundles with one game for same price (I can bet on MK8D bundle for $300) and than maybe we will have price cut of $50 at around Black Friday and Holiday season.

Well it's very obvious how they handling Switch so far (basically from first reveal), they are focusing on announcements and releases that will be released in near future, I mean even Reggie said recently "Nintendo will talk about 2018 after the holiday season". So like @Zorg1000 wrote, people relly need first to wait next Nintendo Direct before start with this "Nintendo dont have games for 2018.", even offcourse Nintendo will not reveal full 2018. linuep in next Direct.

January Direct is evrething but confirmed, January Nintendo Direct was very expected (beacuse point that Nintendo will need to start talking about 2018. linuep after holiday season and beacuse we had last normal Direct in September) even before that leaked EA document that pointend there is Direct in January. In any case, next Nintendo Direct will definitely be quite interesting. :)

 

 

fatslob-:O said:
Definitely not possible without a price cut or without a combination of blockbuster titles such as Animal Crossing and Pokemon or other combinations ...

By the end of this fiscal year the effect of previously released blockbusters such as Zelda, MK8D and Splatoon 2 will have diminished in driving hardware sales ...

SMO will probably continue to sell the system for a little longer but it won't be able to carry the Switch for another 12 months alone ...

You cant say its not possible, I mean hardly that anybody could predict back in January though that Switch would sell so great in its first year, but in any case I defiantly expacting at least Animal Crossing or Pokemon. Talking about price cut thats not certain, but at least we probably start seeing bundles with on game for current price point.

Well its not like that everyone that has interest in those games bouth Switch this year, those games will be one of biggest reasons for selling Switch not only next year but in following years also, there is reason why Nintendo hevy hitters usually have great legs.

Posible biggest hevy hitters for next year are Smash Bros 4DX/5, Animal Crossing and Pokemon, and Retros game and some new strong more casual IP. I personally expecting combination of 2 from first 3 games that I mentioned. And we probably have some of those announcements already in few weeks in next Direct.



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curl-6 said:

For that they'll need a price cut, Pokemon, or both.

I am a bit concerned that Switch sales could stall in 2018; so far there are no confirmed system sellers for the year, and it's looking like the first few months will have no major new releases at all.

January and February may be rather weak (although there are still lots of third parties coming), but I think they'll give us enough releases in spring and afterwards.

Kirby should release in spring. It's not a huge game, but it will definitely do alright. And it wouldn't surprise me if we'd get a Wii U port too (Super Smash Brothers?) like they did with Mario Kart.



Ajax said:
I dont think so

I also don't think so for the next Sony portable 



Miyamotoo said:

You cant say its not possible, I mean hardly that anybody could predict back in January though that Switch would sell so great in its first year, but in any case I defiantly expacting at least Animal Crossing or Pokemon. Talking about price cut thats not certain, but at least we probably start seeing bundles with on game for current price point.

Well its not like that everyone that has interest in those games bouth Switch this year, those games will be one of biggest reasons for selling Switch not only next year but in following years also, there is reason why Nintendo hevy hitters usually have great legs.

Posible biggest hevy hitters for next year are Smash Bros 4DX/5, Animal Crossing and Pokemon, and Retros game and some new strong more casual IP. I personally expecting combination of 2 from first 3 games that I mentioned. And we probably have some of those announcements already in few weeks in next Direct.

@Bold Did you even read the rest of my post ? 

Also it depends, people that are interested in those games would mostly buy the system in the 12 month window cause at that point the said software stops driving hardware sales altogether and becomes another game in the backlog to purchase once the barrier to entry (buying the system) has been cleared ... (consumers straight up do not buy according to the future, they buy according to their current needs and that's why most businesses that try to predict the future fail) 

Great legs =/= constant hardware seller since most of the games with "great" legs don't actually increase the baseline of system sales ... 



It really only needs ONE really heavy hitter to do this. Smash, animal crossing, or pokemon, or possibly the next monster hunter.



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Miyamotoo said:
bonzobanana said:

Europe loves Nintendo portables we just need them at lower prices. Europe will likely catch up with later sku's. I don't think the UK is the weakest market for Nintendo at all but certainly not the best in Europe. When the UK was out of stock of Switch's there were many other European markets that still had stock. I realise that is related to how much stock each country was given but UK stock allocation was no worse than elsewhere from memory probably higher than most. For now Europe is a weaker market for Switch than the US and Japan for sure but still selling well just not comparable to the huge success in Japan and US. I also think the paid online service will be perceived as more negative in Europe when its implemented. Also in the UK at least retailers were cautious and weren't giving the Switch much attention. It took a while for Game to really make any effort and still when you go in those stores much more space is allocated to PS4 and Xbox one. There could be a retailer factor and now as Switch has been proven to be successful shops will allocate more space to it. I can see Europe and UK being much closer to US Switch success in a year from now.

Switch is selling good in Europe even if dont have same popularity like it has in US and Japan and thats not something unusual for Nintendo product, also fact is that UK is one of weakest Europe market for Nintendo if we talk about bigger Europe countries. US was always easily strongest market for Nintendo, we don't know currently where Switch sold better in Europe or Japan, but in Japan if look size of country definitely has much bigger popularity and that's expected. But in any case I think that price of Switch need to be on pair of US and Japan and thats 300e instead 330e curently.

According to this very site back in September. France is the clear winner in popularity by far.  Germany and UK have sold a similar amount on a per head basis allowing for the population difference and all 3 countries together are the bulk of Switch sales with 500,000 left to be shared by all other countries including large countries like Spain and Italy. So I really can't see the UK as a weak market for Nintendo but definitely weaker than France with regard the Switch. The majority of countries in Europe are much weaker markets for Nintendo than the UK. With only 2 million reported Switches sold in Europe recently its clear a much weaker market for Switch compared to US and Japan but I don't see how the UK can be seen negatively in that light we have bought many more Switches than most European countries even allowing for population differences. I think retailer apathy was a big factor too in the UK and that is changing as well as so the UK may even go ahead of Germany and France you never know with regard Switch sales. Didn't the Nintendo DS have absolutely huge sales in the UK I seem to remember a time when DS sales were incredibly high which isn't that long ago.

Breaking down the sales by region, the Switch has sold best in the US with 1,740,629 units sold (34%), compared to 1,398,764 units sold in Europe (27%) and 1,200,307 units sold in Japan (23%). Looking more closely at Europe, the console has sold an estimated 225,726 units in the UK, 303,712 units in Germany, and 348,925 units in France.



fatslob-:O said:
Miyamotoo said:

You cant say its not possible, I mean hardly that anybody could predict back in January though that Switch would sell so great in its first year, but in any case I defiantly expacting at least Animal Crossing or Pokemon. Talking about price cut thats not certain, but at least we probably start seeing bundles with on game for current price point.

Well its not like that everyone that has interest in those games bouth Switch this year, those games will be one of biggest reasons for selling Switch not only next year but in following years also, there is reason why Nintendo hevy hitters usually have great legs.

Posible biggest hevy hitters for next year are Smash Bros 4DX/5, Animal Crossing and Pokemon, and Retros game and some new strong more casual IP. I personally expecting combination of 2 from first 3 games that I mentioned. And we probably have some of those announcements already in few weeks in next Direct.

@Bold Did you even read the rest of my post ? 

Also it depends, people that are interested in those games would mostly buy the system in the 12 month window cause at that point the said software stops driving hardware sales altogether and becomes another game in the backlog to purchase once the barrier to entry (buying the system) has been cleared ... (consumers straight up do not buy according to the future, they buy according to their current needs and that's why most businesses that try to predict the future fail) 

Great legs =/= constant hardware seller since most of the games with "great" legs don't actually increase the baseline of system sales ... 

Yes I did, and like I wrote, "hardly that anybody could predict back in January though that Switch would sell so great in its first year", plenty of people back than in Janaury would easily said that is not possible that Switch will sell this much in 1st year.

That depends from various reasons, stock problems, peoples financial state at that time, more or less free time for playing, they just want few more games...talking about games, for instance for someone maybe Zelda BotW and Mario Odyssey are must have but they want to have onother must have game before they will buy Switch, and with evre new stronger/better game Switch lineup and Switch itself will be more and more attractive platform and more people will buy Switch.

Strong games with great legs are one of main reasons for selling consoles in Nintendo case, games like Zelda BotW, MK8D, Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey in combination with some of future games will be one of main reasons for people for buying Switch.

 

 

bonzobanana said:
Miyamotoo said:

Switch is selling good in Europe even if dont have same popularity like it has in US and Japan and thats not something unusual for Nintendo product, also fact is that UK is one of weakest Europe market for Nintendo if we talk about bigger Europe countries. US was always easily strongest market for Nintendo, we don't know currently where Switch sold better in Europe or Japan, but in Japan if look size of country definitely has much bigger popularity and that's expected. But in any case I think that price of Switch need to be on pair of US and Japan and thats 300e instead 330e curently.

According to this very site back in September. France is the clear winner in popularity by far.  Germany and UK have sold a similar amount on a per head basis allowing for the population difference and all 3 countries together are the bulk of Switch sales with 500,000 left to be shared by all other countries including large countries like Spain and Italy. So I really can't see the UK as a weak market for Nintendo but definitely weaker than France with regard the Switch. The majority of countries in Europe are much weaker markets for Nintendo than the UK. With only 2 million reported Switches sold in Europe recently its clear a much weaker market for Switch compared to US and Japan but I don't see how the UK can be seen negatively in that light we have bought many more Switches than most European countries even allowing for population differences. I think retailer apathy was a big factor too in the UK and that is changing as well as so the UK may even go ahead of Germany and France you never know with regard Switch sales. Didn't the Nintendo DS have absolutely huge sales in the UK I seem to remember a time when DS sales were incredibly high which isn't that long ago.

Breaking down the sales by region, the Switch has sold best in the US with 1,740,629 units sold (34%), compared to 1,398,764 units sold in Europe (27%) and 1,200,307 units sold in Japan (23%). Looking more closely at Europe, the console has sold an estimated 225,726 units in the UK, 303,712 units in Germany, and 348,925 units in France.

I dont talk about population of countries but about sales numbers, and you basicly proved my point that UK is one of weakest Europe market for Nintendo if we talk about bigger Europe console markets, and that taking UK sales of Nintendo HW and SW like proof of something is wrong.

Wii and DS were quite popular in UK before PS3/360 start beasting, but Wii U and 3DS not so much compared to other markets, and it seems that with Switch is same.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 31 December 2017

2018 is too early for a hardware revision in my opinion, but they definitely shouldn't do a second holiday season at $300 when the competition is so much cheaper. Once you go to $250 and $200 you reach whole new audiences for whom $300 is too high.



curl-6 said:

2018 is too early for a hardware revision in my opinion, but they definitely shouldn't do a second holiday season at $300 when the competition is so much cheaper. Once you go to $250 and $200 you reach whole new audiences for whom $300 is too high.

GBA, DS & 3DS all received their first revisions about ~1.5 years after launch so a Switch revision in Fall 2018 wouldnt surprise me although i do feel Spring 2019 is more likely.

As for price, im not sure if a permanent price cut will happen but i do expect them to start bundling a game and seeing deals during the holidays. A $249 Mario Kart bundle will do very well next holiday.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

2018 is too early for a hardware revision in my opinion, but they definitely shouldn't do a second holiday season at $300 when the competition is so much cheaper. Once you go to $250 and $200 you reach whole new audiences for whom $300 is too high.

GBA, DS & 3DS all received their first revisions about ~1.5 years after launch so a Switch revision in Fall 2018 wouldnt surprise me although i do feel Spring 2019 is more likely.

As for price, im not sure if a permanent price cut will happen but i do expect them to start bundling a game and seeing deals during the holidays. A $249 Mario Kart bundle will do very well next holiday.

Oh I'm not saying it won't happen, I'm just saying I personally think there's no need for a revision until 2019 as the base model is fine.

A $250 Switch bundled with an appealing game would fly off shelves next holiday season; I feel like their holiday performance this year was hurt somewhat by being $300 when you could get a PS4 for $200.