By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Movies & TV - The Fans Have Spoken, Last Jedi Drops A Massive 68%

Livewire on 06 January 2018

It's been a success, regardless. So we can never underestimate the Star Wars name



Around the Network
DarthMetalliCube on 06 January 2018
chakkra said:
thismeintiel said:
Well, I was waiting to update going into the weekend so BOM could post their predictions. Strangely they haven't posted anything, except for Thu numbers. Oh well, here goes.

This will be TLJ's 4th weekend. We have a big scale of possible drops, going by the other $200M openers. Avengers only dropped 34% in its 4th weekend. I don't think TLJ is going to perform like that, but let's use it as a better case scenario. That would mean TLJ would make $34.7M. Its Domestic BO would then be $583.7M, a difference of $229M, or 28% off. If Foreign BO saw the same drop it would make $53.7M, which includes the ~$20M China is going to bring in for its opening weekend. This would put the Foreign total at $627.2M. TFA was sitting at $921.4M, a decline of $294.2M or 32% down. WW total would be $1.21B, a difference of 30%.

Let's do a worst case scenario using TFA's fall of 53% (I'm actually just going to go with a flat 50%.) This would mean that TLJ would make $26.3M. DBO total would be $575.3M, a difference of $237.4M or 29% off. If FBO sees the same decline, it would make $45.5M, for a total of $619M. A difference of $302.4M or 33% down. WW total would be $1.19B, a difference of 31%.

For the final BO numbers, I like looking at RO. Outside of launch TLJ had been outperforming RO by 9%. This has actually started declining, as this past week it only outdid RO by 5%. Still, let's say the 9% holds true. Starting this Fri til it left theatres, RO made $76.7M, meaning that TLJ would make another $83.6M. This brings the DBO total to $632.6M. Taking into account the possible 52% for FBO, the WW total would be $1.32B. Of course, we'll have to see if that performance falls any more against RO. Or if FBO falls back down to 50%, which would lead to a WW take of $1.27B. Or a little bit of both.

Either way, its a far cry from where Hollywood pundits thought it would be, even after the fall. They thought it would easily taking #3, if not #2, on the all time domestic charts, with $750M-$800M. And take #5 on the WW chart, with $1.6B. Even if it stays consistently 9% over RO, with FBO staying at 52%, it will only just take #5 in the domestic charts, and #9 on the WW charts. If FBO falls again to 50%, it'll just snag #10. Of course, we'll have a better picture of how it will hold up against RO after this weekend.

In my humble opinion that is still WAAAAAY more than it actually deserves.  But like I said, that is just my opinion.  It is obvious that many people disagree with me.

I certainly don't.

I think the relative success we're seeing with TLJ is largely residual ripples/after effects from the bulid up OT hype and even TFA to an extent. The hype was still extremely high as people didn't know what to expect with this one. Now they know. It's essentially become another Marvel series now, and I think the numbers are eventually going to settle closer to match those of your average Marvel movie. It's just not special anymore, and this film kind of solidifies that (at least for me).

It'll just take awhile, and we won't truly see the lasting impact of TLJ's lackluster quality until Episode 9 or even beyond that. It's going to be a long and slow death for Star Wars I think. 



"We hold these truths to be self-evident - All men and women created by the, go-you know - you know the thing!" - Joe Biden

Thechalkblock on 06 January 2018

i liked the movie. i think the criticisms are overblown, and the public perception (especially in the usa) is being manipulated by prejudice rather than objectivity.

and in all honesty, this is a movie for children primarily. in some way it doesn't matter what the old curmudgeons think in the end. in other words, it doesn't matter if some don't think it's a good representation of "their" star wars.

it's still one of the most successful films of all time, and i'm sure we'll see more films similar to it in the future.



GameAnalyser on 06 January 2018

The opening in China is nothing short of dismal/abysmal considering how big this franchise is supposed to be and in relative to how the spin off Rogue One fared there. The total for the TLJ is looking to wind up around 40 million USD, where even JL made more than 100 million USD.

Honestly speaking, the expectations for this movie were in the 2 billion range and as the writing has been on the wall, no matter how critics favored it, something needs to be done to fix the franchise with the release of IX.



Lucas-Rio on 06 January 2018

Avengers: 1.5b
Avengers Ultron: 1.4b

SW7: 2.05b
SW8: 1.4b and maybe under it it continues to slow down like that. If we adjust for inflation it will definitely end behind Avengers Ultron

Marvel stronger than SW now due to bad mistakes of Episode 8.



Around the Network
Vincoletto on 06 January 2018
Lucas-Rio said:
Avengers: 1.5b
Avengers Ultron: 1.4b

SW7: 2.05b
SW8: 1.4b and maybe under it it continues to slow down like that. If we adjust for inflation it will definitely end behind Avengers Ultron

Marvel stronger than SW now due to bad mistakes of Episode 8.

Wow never thought about looking at that perspective. Avengers are bigger than SW at leas on movies... which btw is allright since disney "marvelised" SW



thismeintiel on 06 January 2018

Well, Fri estimates are in, and it looks like if Sat and Sun don't rise quite a bit, the TLJ is going to do worse than my previous worst case scenario. It dropped 65% this Fri, so could be looking at a 60% drop over the weekend. I think it should lower to a 55% decline, but I'll go ahead and calculate using the new worst case scenario.

So, if it does drop 60%, that would mean it made $21M for the weekend, bringing the DBO to $570M. That would be a $242.7M decline, or 30% off. If the FBO sees the same decline, it will make $40.4M for the weekend, bringing the total to $613.9M. A difference of $307.5M, or 33% down. For WW, that would be a total of $1.18B. A difference of $550M or 32% down.



 

Simpleton on 06 January 2018
GameAnalyser said:
Honestly speaking, the expectations for this movie were in the 2 billion range

Are these people insane? I always expected this movie to make 1.5b max.



KLAMarine on 06 January 2018
Livewire said:
It's been a success, regardless. So we can never underestimate the Star Wars name

Yes, Episode 8 was a success but it's still part of a downward trend. You can't just shrug that sort of thing off.

A rational business venture doesn't just ignore that, that business would want to know the why of such a development and how to stop it or reverse it.

Disney only had one shot at an Episode 8 of an immense franchise like Star Wars and screwing it up could cause a loss in potential hundreds of millions not only in potential ticket sales but also merchandise sales, dvd sales, film rentals, tv shows, film spinoffs, video games, etc.

 

I think we can all agree that it's never a good idea to piss off your customers but that seems to be what happened:

Thechalkblock said:
i liked the movie. i think the criticisms are overblown, and the public perception (especially in the usa) is being manipulated by prejudice rather than objectivity.

What makes you think that?

Thechalkblock said:
and in all honesty, this is a movie for children primarily. in some way it doesn't matter what the old curmudgeons think in the end. in other words, it doesn't matter if some don't think it's a good representation of "their" star wars.

Money is money whether it comes from older or younger consumers.

Thechalkblock said:
it's still one of the most successful films of all time, and i'm sure we'll see more films similar to it in the future.

See my reply to Livewire.



thismeintiel on 06 January 2018
GameAnalyser said:
The opening in China is nothing short of dismal/abysmal considering how big this franchise is supposed to be and in relative to how the spin off Rogue One fared there. The total for the TLJ is looking to wind up around 40 million USD, where even JL made more than 100 million USD.

Honestly speaking, the expectations for this movie were in the 2 billion range and as the writing has been on the wall, no matter how critics favored it, something needs to be done to fix the franchise with the release of IX.

Definitely.  Especially when you consider a lot of big action franchises have increased their takes there.  SW has shrunk it considerably.  It went from a $53M opening, which then went on to make $124.2M, to looking like it would be lucky to even grab $50M for the full run.  I'm just glad it looks like the Chinese market is getting wise to some of Hollywood's cheap pandering to them, either getting a diversity hire or filming a 5-10 min scene in China.

chakkra said:
thismeintiel said:
Well, I was waiting to update going into the weekend so BOM could post their predictions. Strangely they haven't posted anything, except for Thu numbers. Oh well, here goes.

This will be TLJ's 4th weekend. We have a big scale of possible drops, going by the other $200M openers. Avengers only dropped 34% in its 4th weekend. I don't think TLJ is going to perform like that, but let's use it as a better case scenario. That would mean TLJ would make $34.7M. Its Domestic BO would then be $583.7M, a difference of $229M, or 28% off. If Foreign BO saw the same drop it would make $53.7M, which includes the ~$20M China is going to bring in for its opening weekend. This would put the Foreign total at $627.2M. TFA was sitting at $921.4M, a decline of $294.2M or 32% down. WW total would be $1.21B, a difference of 30%.

Let's do a worst case scenario using TFA's fall of 53% (I'm actually just going to go with a flat 50%.) This would mean that TLJ would make $26.3M. DBO total would be $575.3M, a difference of $237.4M or 29% off. If FBO sees the same decline, it would make $45.5M, for a total of $619M. A difference of $302.4M or 33% down. WW total would be $1.19B, a difference of 31%.

For the final BO numbers, I like looking at RO. Outside of launch TLJ had been outperforming RO by 9%. This has actually started declining, as this past week it only outdid RO by 5%. Still, let's say the 9% holds true. Starting this Fri til it left theatres, RO made $76.7M, meaning that TLJ would make another $83.6M. This brings the DBO total to $632.6M. Taking into account the possible 52% for FBO, the WW total would be $1.32B. Of course, we'll have to see if that performance falls any more against RO. Or if FBO falls back down to 50%, which would lead to a WW take of $1.27B. Or a little bit of both.

Either way, its a far cry from where Hollywood pundits thought it would be, even after the fall. They thought it would easily taking #3, if not #2, on the all time domestic charts, with $750M-$800M. And take #5 on the WW chart, with $1.6B. Even if it stays consistently 9% over RO, with FBO staying at 52%, it will only just take #5 in the domestic charts, and #9 on the WW charts. If FBO falls again to 50%, it'll just snag #10. Of course, we'll have a better picture of how it will hold up against RO after this weekend.

In my humble opinion that is still WAAAAAY more than it actually deserves.  But like I said, that is just my opinion.  It is obvious that many people disagree with me.

Well, after the hype built up for the movie and for the plot points from TFA opening up for some great reveals/answers, this film was always going to be a success.  I mean off of almost hype and name alone it made almost half a billion dollars just on opening weekend.  But, the fact remains, and Disney is taking notice, that it was WAY below their expectations.  It's even under the expectations after the 68% drop in its 2nd weekend, because they arrogantly wanted to believe it was just the holiday calendar that lead to the drop.

I'm not looking forward to Ep 9, but I think Disney knows if they plan on giving us another poor imitation of a Marvel flick, they won't be opening above $200M, again.  Might not even make it much past $1B, if at all.  Sadly, I think they are going to go overly safe with the next one, and it will most likely be a muddled mess if they try to address a lot of the problems with this film.  So, either way, the damage has been done, and this film will be a stain on the franchise.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 06 January 2018