GameAnalyser said:
The opening in China is nothing short of dismal/abysmal considering how big this franchise is supposed to be and in relative to how the spin off Rogue One fared there. The total for the TLJ is looking to wind up around 40 million USD, where even JL made more than 100 million USD.
Honestly speaking, the expectations for this movie were in the 2 billion range and as the writing has been on the wall, no matter how critics favored it, something needs to be done to fix the franchise with the release of IX. |
Definitely. Especially when you consider a lot of big action franchises have increased their takes there. SW has shrunk it considerably. It went from a $53M opening, which then went on to make $124.2M, to looking like it would be lucky to even grab $50M for the full run. I'm just glad it looks like the Chinese market is getting wise to some of Hollywood's cheap pandering to them, either getting a diversity hire or filming a 5-10 min scene in China.
chakkra said:
thismeintiel said:
Well, I was waiting to update going into the weekend so BOM could post their predictions. Strangely they haven't posted anything, except for Thu numbers. Oh well, here goes.
This will be TLJ's 4th weekend. We have a big scale of possible drops, going by the other $200M openers. Avengers only dropped 34% in its 4th weekend. I don't think TLJ is going to perform like that, but let's use it as a better case scenario. That would mean TLJ would make $34.7M. Its Domestic BO would then be $583.7M, a difference of $229M, or 28% off. If Foreign BO saw the same drop it would make $53.7M, which includes the ~$20M China is going to bring in for its opening weekend. This would put the Foreign total at $627.2M. TFA was sitting at $921.4M, a decline of $294.2M or 32% down. WW total would be $1.21B, a difference of 30%.
Let's do a worst case scenario using TFA's fall of 53% (I'm actually just going to go with a flat 50%.) This would mean that TLJ would make $26.3M. DBO total would be $575.3M, a difference of $237.4M or 29% off. If FBO sees the same decline, it would make $45.5M, for a total of $619M. A difference of $302.4M or 33% down. WW total would be $1.19B, a difference of 31%.
For the final BO numbers, I like looking at RO. Outside of launch TLJ had been outperforming RO by 9%. This has actually started declining, as this past week it only outdid RO by 5%. Still, let's say the 9% holds true. Starting this Fri til it left theatres, RO made $76.7M, meaning that TLJ would make another $83.6M. This brings the DBO total to $632.6M. Taking into account the possible 52% for FBO, the WW total would be $1.32B. Of course, we'll have to see if that performance falls any more against RO. Or if FBO falls back down to 50%, which would lead to a WW take of $1.27B. Or a little bit of both.
Either way, its a far cry from where Hollywood pundits thought it would be, even after the fall. They thought it would easily taking #3, if not #2, on the all time domestic charts, with $750M-$800M. And take #5 on the WW chart, with $1.6B. Even if it stays consistently 9% over RO, with FBO staying at 52%, it will only just take #5 in the domestic charts, and #9 on the WW charts. If FBO falls again to 50%, it'll just snag #10. Of course, we'll have a better picture of how it will hold up against RO after this weekend. |
In my humble opinion that is still WAAAAAY more than it actually deserves. But like I said, that is just my opinion. It is obvious that many people disagree with me.
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Well, after the hype built up for the movie and for the plot points from TFA opening up for some great reveals/answers, this film was always going to be a success. I mean off of almost hype and name alone it made almost half a billion dollars just on opening weekend. But, the fact remains, and Disney is taking notice, that it was WAY below their expectations. It's even under the expectations after the 68% drop in its 2nd weekend, because they arrogantly wanted to believe it was just the holiday calendar that lead to the drop.
I'm not looking forward to Ep 9, but I think Disney knows if they plan on giving us another poor imitation of a Marvel flick, they won't be opening above $200M, again. Might not even make it much past $1B, if at all. Sadly, I think they are going to go overly safe with the next one, and it will most likely be a muddled mess if they try to address a lot of the problems with this film. So, either way, the damage has been done, and this film will be a stain on the franchise.
Last edited by thismeintiel - on 06 January 2018
