chakkra said:
thismeintiel said:
Well, I was waiting to update going into the weekend so BOM could post their predictions. Strangely they haven't posted anything, except for Thu numbers. Oh well, here goes.
This will be TLJ's 4th weekend. We have a big scale of possible drops, going by the other $200M openers. Avengers only dropped 34% in its 4th weekend. I don't think TLJ is going to perform like that, but let's use it as a better case scenario. That would mean TLJ would make $34.7M. Its Domestic BO would then be $583.7M, a difference of $229M, or 28% off. If Foreign BO saw the same drop it would make $53.7M, which includes the ~$20M China is going to bring in for its opening weekend. This would put the Foreign total at $627.2M. TFA was sitting at $921.4M, a decline of $294.2M or 32% down. WW total would be $1.21B, a difference of 30%.
Let's do a worst case scenario using TFA's fall of 53% (I'm actually just going to go with a flat 50%.) This would mean that TLJ would make $26.3M. DBO total would be $575.3M, a difference of $237.4M or 29% off. If FBO sees the same decline, it would make $45.5M, for a total of $619M. A difference of $302.4M or 33% down. WW total would be $1.19B, a difference of 31%.
For the final BO numbers, I like looking at RO. Outside of launch TLJ had been outperforming RO by 9%. This has actually started declining, as this past week it only outdid RO by 5%. Still, let's say the 9% holds true. Starting this Fri til it left theatres, RO made $76.7M, meaning that TLJ would make another $83.6M. This brings the DBO total to $632.6M. Taking into account the possible 52% for FBO, the WW total would be $1.32B. Of course, we'll have to see if that performance falls any more against RO. Or if FBO falls back down to 50%, which would lead to a WW take of $1.27B. Or a little bit of both.
Either way, its a far cry from where Hollywood pundits thought it would be, even after the fall. They thought it would easily taking #3, if not #2, on the all time domestic charts, with $750M-$800M. And take #5 on the WW chart, with $1.6B. Even if it stays consistently 9% over RO, with FBO staying at 52%, it will only just take #5 in the domestic charts, and #9 on the WW charts. If FBO falls again to 50%, it'll just snag #10. Of course, we'll have a better picture of how it will hold up against RO after this weekend. |
In my humble opinion that is still WAAAAAY more than it actually deserves. But like I said, that is just my opinion. It is obvious that many people disagree with me.
|
I certainly don't.
I think the relative success we're seeing with TLJ is largely residual ripples/after effects from the bulid up OT hype and even TFA to an extent. The hype was still extremely high as people didn't know what to expect with this one. Now they know. It's essentially become another Marvel series now, and I think the numbers are eventually going to settle closer to match those of your average Marvel movie. It's just not special anymore, and this film kind of solidifies that (at least for me).
It'll just take awhile, and we won't truly see the lasting impact of TLJ's lackluster quality until Episode 9 or even beyond that. It's going to be a long and slow death for Star Wars I think.
