Solo looks more fanbase oriented so i think it will be well received just like Rogue one.
Also, TLJ dropped to a similar percentage as Episode II and Episode IV so it's nothing groundbreaking really just something that happened since the first sequel but people and media use it to make a dramatisation and clickbait post like Disney is in trouble and fans won.
Cause really, even though yes there is backlash, 1.33 billion is massive and you have to take into account the majority liked the movie.

Thats a very interesting point of view. Many thanks.

The impression I have is that the movie is already forgotten. It did not create any sense of marvel with people to discuss it months after the release. Excepts for discussion like this is it failed or not. But on topics such as how the next movie is going to be, how will Leia die, that will Ray do, what about Finn? It seems nobody is even bothered to discuss it.

Yea, I think RO numbers are the best it can hope for.  Of course, that's if the film is even good.  Personally, the trailer looked pretty lackluster to me, aside from visuals.  But, that's pretty much the case with TLJ.  Visuals were great, everything else just fell apart.  It doesn't help that the actor playing Solo just doesn't give off a Solo vibe, either in looks or personality.  I know two actors who could have played that role much better, one of which has already played a young Harrison Ford in a movie.  That they chose an actor who required acting lessons is beyond me.

But, I think your prediction of $730M-$875M sounds about right.  If my suspicions about the quality of the film are correct, then I'm guessing it'll definitely be on the bottom of that scale.  I'm sure some would try to explain it away, but it would still further prove the degradation of the franchise.  Especially when you consider they spent a pretty penny on this film, paying two directors and for countless reshoots that were still going on as of a few weeks ago, and RO (another spinoff) pulled in over $1B.

First of all, no one is making clickbait.  If anything, a lot of the media has been trying to make excuses for its poor performance outside of opening weekend.  Mostly because the things the movie and Kathleen Kennedy try to push, they agree with. 

Second, Episode 5 dropped ~26% (TLJ will end up down by ~36%) in a time when the movie industry was changing.  It was becoming less about having slow burn movies out for long periods of time (ANH was initially out for a year and a half, while ESB was out less than a year) and more about having larger draws in the first few weeks, while making room for new releases.  ESB came out while this was changing, so it didn't have a huge opening, though larger than ANH, but it also didn't benefit from being out longer than a year.  Adjusted for ticket price inflation, it still made ~$1.5B.  TLJ has little excuse not to at least match that film's performance, given that it has the advantage of a greatly expanded WW market.

Third, the comparisons to Episode 2 is very telling.  I mean, the worst performing and worst received SW film of all time, and you're going to compare TLJ to that to make it look good? And that movie saw a decline of ~37%.  Hmm, so both films are going to be down by about the same amount.  Very telling, indeed.

Finally, we can't say for sure that the majority of fans liked it.  Personally, I'd say it's more like 50:50.  Of course, that's just a guess.  All we know for certain is that even if a minority of fans disliked it, it was a huge minority.  Like maybe 40%.  You don't underperform as poorly as this did with only 10% of the fanbase not liking it.  I mean, it went from $1.65B being the lowest of predictions (with $1.7B-$1.8 being the more "realistic" ones), to it'll still end up around $1.6B, to $1.33B isn't that bad.  And don't forget the decline in toy sales.  There's no way to explain it away, this movie was a disappoint to many fans, as well as Disney.

Yea, I think that is the consensus of many who disliked it.  One of the worst parts of the film, with its nihilistic approach, is it just doesn't get you pumped for the final chapter.  I mean, other than killing some characters off nonchalantly, it didn't really do anything to set up or change things for the next one.  No cliffhangers.  No real arcs.  We're right where we started TLJ.  Rebels on the run.  FO is in pursuit.  Of course, they never give a reason to why they are even in pursuit.  It's obvious that's all that is left of the Rebellion after Johnson wrote out their support throughout the galaxy.  So, why give a shit if a dozen or so people live?  Everyone obviously supports, or at least fears, them, so just put up some wanted posters that say "Shoot On Sight" and go about ruling the galaxy.

In what world are you living, all over the internet there is clickbait news about TLJ being a disappointed and a catastrophe. Yes TLJ is having a bigger drop but you also have to take the fact there was NO WAY a Star Wars movie is going to do as well as TFA since it was a major major comeback. Of course EpIV had a smaller drop because it was the second Star Wars. People went to see TFA as for nostalgia. You also have to take the fact we are getting a Star Wars movie every year now and that maybe some people waited for the Solo movie instead or were tired of the franchise after TFA and Rogue one. Each previous movies were released 3 years after the other, which really give people time to actually want to see a new Star Wars movie again. Now it's 2 years apart the main movies but 1 each year and another 1 6 months after TLJ. 

Again, Ep1 was hated by mostly everyone but for TLJ, the GP and some fans LOVED the movie. Of course the fraction that hated the movie is the most active online but it's always like that, people won't yell on every site that they liked a movie which is the case of the other way around.

Don't use the ticket inflation argument on me, we all know most franchises are down because of that compared to before when there was little to no competition and movie theatres were way more popular. And again, count in the fact we are getting 4 SW movies in 3 years and a half compare to 2 in the past. People have to make a decisions. Also the bad press the movie has received (which idk how you aren't aware of it) probably made some people choose another movie instead since it was basically everywhere on social media. 

Episode 2 isn't the most hated of all time at all. Ep1 is. And TLJ is an amazing movie, just not satisfying enough for a part of the fanbase, that's completely different. 

Toy sales dropping can also be a cause of the "it's impossible to be as big as TFA" effect. The marketing around a new SW in like 10 years was huge just like it was with Ep1 (which could have been bigger if the movie was better). The fans that hated the movie are (hopefully) not the reason why the toys aren't selling.

The real world.  And from all the stories I looked at, the majority of them were praising its performance and explaining away its poor reviews and legs.  Forbes, and maybe a few smaller sites, were the only ones really bringing up how poorly it was doing outside of opening weekend. 

And why use a strawman?  Who said anything about doing as well as TFA?  Of course, such a feat is not impossible, but no one was expecting it.  No, they were expecting a WW gross of $1.7B-$1.8B, which is less than TFA's $2.07B, just so you know.  Even the lower end was $1.65B.  Then, that huge dropoff came as disappointed fans didn't go watch it a second time.  Even still, analysts were predicting it would still hit ~$1.6BWW and ~$750M DBO.  Even the worst case scenario BMO suggested would have meant it hitting $1.45B.  Now, it's not even going to hit that.

Don't use the inflation argument?  Why?  Because that makes the film's performance look worse?  And no, franchise fatigue nor inflation are causing franchises to be down.  I mean tell that to Marvel, that keeps doing better with each sequel.  And they're starting to put out 3 films a year, now.  Hell, we also just had a sequel, that no one really asked for, of Jumanji that is greatly outperforming the original, even including inflation.  The point is, people will come to your movie, it just has to be good and not piss on a lot of the fans of the series.

No, Ep 2 is the most hated.  I think you're allowing your personal bias to enter your argument.  Ep 2 performed the worse and has worse ratings.  And many would disagree on how "amazing" TLJ was.  It dropped similarly to Ep2, so that should tell you something.  Also, toys sales dropping includes being lower than even RO, a spinoff.  And of course it is because of those fans the toys and other merch aren't selling as well.  If you don't like the movie, you're not going to buy toys and merch with that movie on it.

Kathleen Kennedy pushing agendas? Kathleen Kennedy's job is to maintain the cash flow through IP's in a socially relevant manner, not push "agendas". The only thing worse than an SJW is a conspiracy theorist with no evidence to back up their claims. If you honestly think Kathleen Kennedy is more worried about pushing "agendas" than making BOAT loads of money with some of the greatest and most recognizable movies in history (which she has, seriously, she's on another level) then.....cool story.

LOL. The Force is female? The on the nose messages in TLJ? Sorry, but there is no conspiracy theory here. Either you choose to be blind to it, or you just agree with those messages, so don't mind them being shoehorned intoa series that never needed them. Part of the reason it fell so hard was because people not liking those messages. Hell, even some people who agree with them hated them being so childishly inserted into the film. 

Yes there is a part of the drop because of some backlash, but my point is some fans are so happy like they are the only reason this is happening while we already saw a big drop with Rogue One ,meh it was not a main movie, but still it didn't perform near as well with everything a Star Wars movie is and was super well received by fans, so why didn't the movie made 2 billions if the fans liked it ? Cause the GP control BY FAR the revenu. I only think the backlash from fans might have made a u-turn to some movie goers while reading critics online.

And my point on inflation is it makes every movie look bad or almost, again, there were much less competition before and it's totally incomparable. Also, Hollywood doesn't like using inflation for that reason, it's not like I'm alone thinking that way. You can't compare to totally different periods together like that. Marvel isn't the same exact case cause the movies are all super different and you clearly see that most people only go see Avengers which happens like every 3 years and makes well over a billion while movies like Thor that has the best reviews in the franchise yet, 2 big mascot in it and super duper market barely made the 850 million. You can also point out that even tho the market for super hero movie is far bigger and can, that way, make more movies come to life, you can't ignore the fact the DCEU can barely fit in it. The DCEU movies that are true to their universe are making good profits even if the movies are bad, but once they try making it funny like the MCU, there is just too much of it already and the profits point out to saturation of the market.

And are you ignorant ? Go anywhere you want, Episode I is the one with the worst critics and reviews. Metacritic, RottenTomatoes, Fan listing, IMDB, Google. It's not by much, but honestly the impact after release was far worst with Ep1 then Ep2.

Edit : 

Btw I'm just going to say that the TLJ backlash is so stupid. The movie is super well made, YES there were some arguable choices made with Luke and the Force but that's literally it. Some fans saying it's one of the worst movie of all time are just angry nerds that lives for conspiracy theories and they didn't get their predictions right about whether the parents of Rey or whatever else they were hoping for. I'm a huge Star Wars fan but only from recently, so I've seen all the past movies at the same time and I can really say that not only the Prequels are hated for stupid reasons, but that the Star Wars fanbase is one of the worst I've ever seen. You can't have 1 thing different or they will cry. Like KK would literally be making the original trilogy over and over again if she was listening to the backlash. But what do I saw online ? People were MAD about Ep7 being too similar. This is fucking hilarious to me. Like let's face it, there will never be another original Star Wars movie that will please most of the fans. And honestly TLJ is one of my favorite episode but to me the only critic I have towards it is nothing really happens and everything is too vague. It's like Ryan didn't want to make any decision and just let the story hanging there except he wanted Luke to go which is literally the worst thing he could do as taking position in the Story. But overall, movie is amazingly shot, well written and good.

Anyone see this? I'm not too proud to admit I listened to the entire 3 part vid (took me more than a few sittings heh). It's outstandingly written and makes some very intelligent and insightful points.  It analyses just about every minute detail and mercilessly rips the film apart from beginning to end. Needless to say I was far more entertained by this than the actual film lol.