thismeintiel said:
Yea, I think RO numbers are the best it can hope for. Of course, that's if the film is even good. Personally, the trailer looked pretty lackluster to me, aside from visuals. But, that's pretty much the case with TLJ. Visuals were great, everything else just fell apart. It doesn't help that the actor playing Solo just doesn't give off a Solo vibe, either in looks or personality. I know two actors who could have played that role much better, one of which has already played a young Harrison Ford in a movie. That they chose an actor who required acting lessons is beyond me. But, I think your prediction of $730M-$875M sounds about right. If my suspicions about the quality of the film are correct, then I'm guessing it'll definitely be on the bottom of that scale. I'm sure some would try to explain it away, but it would still further prove the degradation of the franchise. Especially when you consider they spent a pretty penny on this film, paying two directors and for countless reshoots that were still going on as of a few weeks ago, and RO (another spinoff) pulled in over $1B.
First of all, no one is making clickbait. If anything, a lot of the media has been trying to make excuses for its poor performance outside of opening weekend. Mostly because the things the movie and Kathleen Kennedy try to push, they agree with. Second, Episode 5 dropped ~26% (TLJ will end up down by ~36%) in a time when the movie industry was changing. It was becoming less about having slow burn movies out for long periods of time (ANH was initially out for a year and a half, while ESB was out less than a year) and more about having larger draws in the first few weeks, while making room for new releases. ESB came out while this was changing, so it didn't have a huge opening, though larger than ANH, but it also didn't benefit from being out longer than a year. Adjusted for ticket price inflation, it still made ~$1.5B. TLJ has little excuse not to at least match that film's performance, given that it has the advantage of a greatly expanded WW market. Third, the comparisons to Episode 2 is very telling. I mean, the worst performing and worst received SW film of all time, and you're going to compare TLJ to that to make it look good? And that movie saw a decline of ~37%. Hmm, so both films are going to be down by about the same amount. Very telling, indeed. Finally, we can't say for sure that the majority of fans liked it. Personally, I'd say it's more like 50:50. Of course, that's just a guess. All we know for certain is that even if a minority of fans disliked it, it was a huge minority. Like maybe 40%. You don't underperform as poorly as this did with only 10% of the fanbase not liking it. I mean, it went from $1.65B being the lowest of predictions (with $1.7B-$1.8 being the more "realistic" ones), to it'll still end up around $1.6B, to $1.33B isn't that bad. And don't forget the decline in toy sales. There's no way to explain it away, this movie was a disappoint to many fans, as well as Disney. |
In what world are you living, all over the internet there is clickbait news about TLJ being a disappointed and a catastrophe. Yes TLJ is having a bigger drop but you also have to take the fact there was NO WAY a Star Wars movie is going to do as well as TFA since it was a major major comeback. Of course EpIV had a smaller drop because it was the second Star Wars. People went to see TFA as for nostalgia. You also have to take the fact we are getting a Star Wars movie every year now and that maybe some people waited for the Solo movie instead or were tired of the franchise after TFA and Rogue one. Each previous movies were released 3 years after the other, which really give people time to actually want to see a new Star Wars movie again. Now it's 2 years apart the main movies but 1 each year and another 1 6 months after TLJ.
Again, Ep1 was hated by mostly everyone but for TLJ, the GP and some fans LOVED the movie. Of course the fraction that hated the movie is the most active online but it's always like that, people won't yell on every site that they liked a movie which is the case of the other way around.
Don't use the ticket inflation argument on me, we all know most franchises are down because of that compared to before when there was little to no competition and movie theatres were way more popular. And again, count in the fact we are getting 4 SW movies in 3 years and a half compare to 2 in the past. People have to make a decisions. Also the bad press the movie has received (which idk how you aren't aware of it) probably made some people choose another movie instead since it was basically everywhere on social media.
Episode 2 isn't the most hated of all time at all. Ep1 is. And TLJ is an amazing movie, just not satisfying enough for a part of the fanbase, that's completely different.
Toy sales dropping can also be a cause of the "it's impossible to be as big as TFA" effect. The marketing around a new SW in like 10 years was huge just like it was with Ep1 (which could have been bigger if the movie was better). The fans that hated the movie are (hopefully) not the reason why the toys aren't selling.
