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Forums - Movies & TV - The Fans Have Spoken, Last Jedi Drops A Massive 68%


SuaveSocialist said:

I leave that to people who think that any of The Top Ten were box office disappointments. 

 

Lol, I see there is no point in continuing this debate

You lost it the moment TLJ cracked The Top Ten.



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Soundwave said:
thismeintiel said:

I don't know. I'd say it's a toss up between this film and the prequels. Though, I guess you may count those as ages ago. Still, discussion for the sake of discussion isn't always good. Especially when it's harming the sales/opinion of the thing you're trying to sell. 

I guess why do even care so much about the box office? 

It's not like Disney is sharing any of that money with you. 

And it's not like Star Wars movies are ever going to stop being made ... Star Trek is only a fraction as successful as Star Wars box office wise and there's another Star Trek in development by Quentin Tarantino no less (which makes it the 14th Star Trek movie, lol). So really there's no danger of that. 

Maybe it underperformed a tad, but it's still the no.1 movie domestically and internationally for 2017. It's not even a low point for Star Wars either, since AOTC and Revenge of the Sith and Rogue One all grossed less to boot inflation adjusted. 

@ bold

That's the most ridiculous thing to say in an argument.  It just shows you have little argument, so have to use strawmen.  I mean if you're going to be like that, why even have ANY argument about ANY topic, unless it directly affects you monetarily.  And obviously, you care about it, as you continue to come in here to defend the film.  Does people hating/disliking the film have any real impact on you?  No.  Does people seeing how poorly it performed against expectations really matter in your life? No.  So why continue to come in this thread to defend the movie?

A tad is in understatement.  If analysts thought it was going to still do $1.6B after the 68% drop, then you know they fully expected it to do at least $1.7B-$1.8B before that drop.  This would have had it outperform Avengers by ~$200M-$300M.  Instead its going to be under that movie by ~$200M.  And the fact that we have to continually compare it to a prequel (ROTS) that wasn't that well received, which TLJ will end up outdoing it by ~$100M (which really could be explained away by the much expanded market we have seen since the prequels), a poorly received prequel (AOTC), and a spinoff, just shows how low we have to go in the franchise to make this one seem like it did great.  ESB did $1.5B, adjusted, with an even smaller market than the prequels.  For TLJ to fall even short of that is telling.  Especially when we already have an example of how a main installment of SW can perform in this expanded market, TFA.  Well, if it's a decent flick.

A_C_E said:
thismeintiel said:

Lol, keep on reaching.  Especially with that weak S.E. comparison.  Oh boy.

Here's the numbers that (1)Disney, and investors, care about.  ~36% down.  ~$740M down.  And it has had worse legs than RO, being outperformed by it for the past 17 days. (2) Meaning that without that hyped up weekend, it would have barely outperformed RO.  Currently, outside of opening weekend it is a mere 7% above it, and it will continue to fall.  A freaking spinoff vs a main installment.  And given that it has already lost ~60% of its screenings, it is looking unlikely it will stay in theaters as long as TFA and RO did.  Finally, and probably more importantly, merchandise sales are down when compared to TFA and RO, as well.  (3)Yea, I'm sure they are ecstatic with these results. 


1. You tell us what Disney cares about while leaving out the biggest thing that they care about, the ROI, which, all things considered is huge. This is Sophism, a fallacious way to deceit people. Your ONLY point you can make is it is down from TFA which all of us already agree on, obviously. You think Disney cares more about the 36% drop than the ROI? No I don't think you do and with this information we can safely say that Disney will continue to pull LARGE numbers with each SW movie still while being down over 30% from TFA.

2. Cool story. You just committed the Appeal to Probability fallacy, good job. Back to reality, that huge weekend exists, none of your "stories" are going to change that.

3. (Another fallacy? This is three already.) What a strawman, lol. No one is saying they are ecstatic about being down, but they aren't unhappy about making the amount of money they just made, that would be stupid to think.

Your argument is flawed, fallacious and pessimistic, try to be realistic.

1. Uh, not sure if you know this, but much poorer than expected performance at the BO, a lowered image of the franchise by many WW, which will most likely hurt box office sales going forward (they already expect Han Solo to perform poorly), and lower merch sales than even RO does affect ROI.  Unless you want to come up with some great argument about how it doesn't...?

2. That one just went over your head, I guess.  The point wasn't "Hey, we should just ignore the opening weekend because it was mostly hype."  The point was "Hey, look at how poorly this film is performing outside of opening weekend.  It's barely doing any better than RO, a spinoff.  In fact, in the later weeks, RO is having much better legs.  Meaning in the end, TLJ may only have outperformed RO's numbers for the weeks outside of its opening by <5%."

3.  Read #1.  They're not just down in BO revenue for one film.

I'd say, I'm the one being the realist.  Looking at the big picture.  No flaw or fallacy in that.



Soundwave said:

China loves Fast & Furious and Transformers, both are bigger movie franchises there than Star Wars or even Marvel.

Star Wars has never really caught on there. If Disney wants a Star Wars movie to do big bucks there they need to cast Vin Diesel in the lead. 

But but but... we have Rose... isnt it enough to pick up asian audience? Such a brilliant character...



It's garbage. Everything from Marry Poppins flying space princess, random characters inserted to pander to a SJW crowd and the worst plot holes and destroying icons by making them be the exact opposite person.

It's stunning to behold on a technical level. The score is astounding.

Shame the movie is utter trash.



Vincoletto said:
Soundwave said:

China loves Fast & Furious and Transformers, both are bigger movie franchises there than Star Wars or even Marvel.

Star Wars has never really caught on there. If Disney wants a Star Wars movie to do big bucks there they need to cast Vin Diesel in the lead. 

But but but... we have Rose... isnt it enough to pick up asian audience? Such a brilliant character...

I do have to give credit to the Chinese.  It didn't take them long to overcome that pandering BS.  For awhile, it seemed all you had to do was hire an Asian actor, preferably Chinese, and/or film a short scene in China, and they would show up in droves. 

Now if only we could fix this...



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thismeintiel said: 

1. Uh, not sure if you know this, but much poorer than expected performance at the BO, a lowered image of the franchise by many WW, which will most likely hurt box office sales going forward (they already expect Han Solo to perform poorly), and lower merch sales than even RO does affect ROI.  Unless you want to come up with some great argument about how it doesn't...?

2. That one just went over your head, I guess.  The point wasn't "Hey, we should just ignore the opening weekend because it was mostly hype."  The point was "Hey, look at how poorly this film is performing outside of opening weekend.  It's barely doing any better than RO, a spinoff.  In fact, in the later weeks, RO is having much better legs.  Meaning in the end, TLJ may only have outperformed RO's numbers for the weeks outside of its opening by <5%."

3.  Read #1.  They're not just down in BO revenue for one film.

I'd say, I'm the one being the realist.  Looking at the big picture.  No flaw or fallacy in that.

1. I'm quite aware and have heard it all before, especially considering you announce it in every one of your posts, keep doing what you're doing, more power to you. However, the ROI is the ROI. Whether or not they wanted more is a separate factor than whether they are happy with the huge cash flow TLJ has generated. Would you be unhappy if you ONLY won one-million dollars on a three-million dollar jackpot? I highly doubt it.

2. Ohhh, so the fallacy of Supressing Evidence is your claim. Let's just roll with this since you like excluding numbers to fit your narrative. The thrid SW film in 3 years made around 5% more "outside" of it's opening weekend than the previous entry? You keep referring to RO as a spin-off as if the term "spin-off" has some inherently determinant value attached to it. RO earned over a billion dollars last year.

3. They're not just down in BO revenue for one film? Does this have any pertinence to my point? Did I say BO revenue was down only for one film?

Stay real man! You are doing a fine job!



I find the effect TLJ has had on my workplace to be interesting. The merch just collects dust; admittedly, it didn't sell like wildfire with TFA (due to people wanting Rey stuff and just not having it) and nobody wanted action figures or clothing for RO, but there's plenty of Rey stuff available now. Discussions about TLJ are apologetic or frustrated if they even happen at all, whereas the previous two still had some hype and energy in the somewhat common discussions months after release, despite some criticism of redundancy or CG Tarkin. Perhaps it's some dark wishful thinking (or, more likely, simple confirmation bias), but it definitely feels like the well has been poisoned.

Considering this was the return of Luke Skywalker, as well as a payoff for dangling threads in the very successful TFA...I can't imagine Disney thinking anything other than disappointment. Products and businesses get shut down all the time for not making "enough" money, and TLJ surely didn't come close to its potential.



Weekend estimates are in. TLJ did $2.24M. This is 23.5% lower than RO's $2.92M for the same weekend. For the past 24 days, RO has outperformed TLJ by 16%. From now until it left theatres, RO made $7.54M. If the 16% holds, than TLJ will make just $6.5M. This would bring the final DBO total to $620.9M. If the FBO precentage of 53.5% holds, final WW will be $1.34B.

Just a few points that help illustrate how poor its legs have been (all numbers pertain to DBO):

- By the end of Week 3, Day 21, TLJ had been outperforming RO, outside of opening weekend, by 9.6%. That performance has fallen to 6.7% in the following weeks, and will continue to fall further.
- By the end of Week 3, TLJ had dropped 28.7% below TFA. It currently is 32.2% below TFA and is looking to end up ~33.7% down.
- By the end of Week 3, TLJ was $21.7M ahead of Jurassic World. It is currently $17.2M behind it and is looking to end up ~$31.4M behind it.
- By the end of Week 3, TLJ was $72.3M ahead of Avengers:AOU. It is currently $15.9M ahead of it and is looking to end up ~$2.5M behind it.
- TLJ has lost 65.3% of its screenings by Weekend 8. At this point in time, TFA had lost 45.3% and RO had lost 61.2%. JW had lost 55.3% and A:AOU had lost 48.7%.



thismeintiel said:
Weekend estimates are in. TLJ did $2.24M. This is 23.5% lower than RO's $2.92M for the same weekend. For the past 24 days, RO has outperformed TLJ by 16%. From now until it left theatres, RO made $7.54M. If the 16% holds, than TLJ will make just $6.5M. This would bring the final DBO total to $620.9M. If the FBO precentage of 53.5% holds, final WW will be $1.34B.

Just a few points that help illustrate how poor its legs have been (all numbers pertain to DBO):

- By the end of Week 3, Day 21, TLJ had been outperforming RO, outside of opening weekend, by 9.6%. That performance has fallen to 6.7% in the following weeks, and will continue to fall further.
- By the end of Week 3, TLJ had dropped 28.7% below TFA. It currently is 32.2% below TFA and is looking to end up ~33.7% down.
- By the end of Week 3, TLJ was $21.7M ahead of Jurassic World. It is currently $17.2M behind it and is looking to end up ~$31.4M behind it.
- By the end of Week 3, TLJ was $72.3M ahead of Avengers:AOU. It is currently $15.9M ahead of it and is looking to end up ~$2.5M behind it.
- TLJ has lost 65.3% of its screenings by Weekend 8. At this point in time, TFA had lost 45.3% and RO had lost 61.2%. JW had lost 55.3% and A:AOU had lost 48.7%.

This is great news to me, the worse it does the more likely they come to their senses and yank that hack Rian Johnson from having anything to do with SW in the future. Of course it's not 100% his fault, but the horrendous pacing and writing are definitely on him. If it were up to me, I'd pay huge $ to get Lawrence Kasdan back, and put Spielberg, Nolan, Villanueve, whoever on it. This Uwe Boll/Zach Snyder level garbage has no place in the SW universe. Hell, Gareth Edwards did great with R1, why not get him on  it. Yes, I'm fine with JJ doing 9, thank everything in the universe it's not Rian Hack Johnson.



The han solo trailer looked epic. What do you think it will pull in at the box office?