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Forums - Sales Discussion - My prediction: PS4 will outsell Switch lifetime

 

Who will win?

PS4 will dominate (more than 30M difference) 53 40.46%
 
PS4 34 25.95%
 
both end up similar (less... 20 15.27%
 
Switch 11 8.40%
 
Switch will dominate (mor... 6 4.58%
 
XBox One 7 5.34%
 
Total:131
Ryng on 12 December 2017
StreaK said:

The Switch will NOT sell over 20 million consoles in ANY given year. That's my prediction. :)

Ok.

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Teeqoz on 12 December 2017
Ryng_Tolu said:
My NSW prediction.

2017 - 14m - 14m
2018 - 25m - 39m
2019 - 24m - 53m
2020 - 20m - 72m
2021 - 16m - 88m
2022 - 14m - 102m
2023 - 7m - 109m / New Nintendo console year
2024 - 3m - 112m
2025 - 1m - 113m

These numbers make quite a bit of sense. Traditionally, the first half of the gen has made up a larger part of total sales for Nintendo than for Sony, so I can see the Switch getting ahead (launches aligned), with the PS4 eventually shrinking the gap, and in the end they'll sell rather close to eachother.



Ryng on 12 December 2017
Teeqoz said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
My NSW prediction.

2017 - 14m - 14m
2018 - 25m - 39m
2019 - 24m - 53m
2020 - 20m - 72m
2021 - 16m - 88m
2022 - 14m - 102m
2023 - 7m - 109m / New Nintendo console year
2024 - 3m - 112m
2025 - 1m - 113m

These numbers make quite a bit of sense. Traditionally, the first half of the gen has made up a larger part of total sales for Nintendo than for Sony, so I can see the Switch getting ahead (launches aligned), with the PS4 eventually shrinking the gap, and in the end they'll sell rather close to eachother.

Yes, with most recent trend, Nintendo console seem to peak during his second or third year, both being very close, it also depend on markets. Europe usually peak later, Japan early, USA is usually closer to Europe but in reality is kinda a mix of the 2.

So i think third and second year will be very close, but if i have to choise a better year, it's probabily gonna be the second one. Then from the 4th year we can expect a consistent decrease every year before the new Nintendo console. Also second year bump is gonna be so high just because first year saw for a lot of time low shipments and no big deal on Black Friday. I expect Nintendo do ship sufficient units for the domand and this time i believe they will have a better November, something like Pokémon bundle or 250$ price promotion for BF seem likely to me.

Mar1217 said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Ok.

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I predict it will do that easily on it's 2nd/3rd and 4th year !!

Idk about 4th year, i predict it will but just barely. 2nd and 3rd are very likely tho.



Teeqoz on 12 December 2017
Ryng_Tolu said:
Teeqoz said:

These numbers make quite a bit of sense. Traditionally, the first half of the gen has made up a larger part of total sales for Nintendo than for Sony, so I can see the Switch getting ahead (launches aligned), with the PS4 eventually shrinking the gap, and in the end they'll sell rather close to eachother.

Yes, with most recent trend, Nintendo console seem to peak during his second or third year, both being very close, it also depend on markets. Europe usually peak later, Japan early, USA is usually closer to Europe but in reality is kinda a mix of the 2.

So i think third and second year will be very close, but if i have to choise a better year, it's probabily gonna be the second one. Then from the 4th year we can expect a consistent decrease every year before the new Nintendo console. Also second year bump is gonna be so high just because first year saw for a lot of time low shipments and no big deal on Black Friday. I expect Nintendo do ship sufficient units for the domand and this time i believe they will have a better November, something like Pokémon bundle or 250$ price promotion for BF seem likely to me.

Mar1217 said:

I predict it will do that easily on it's 2nd/3rd and 4th year !!

Idk about 4th year, i predict it will but just barely. 2nd and 3rd are very likely tho.

Out of curiosity, what's your annual breakdown for PS4 sales for the rest of the gen?



StreaK on 12 December 2017

I don't know, 25 and 24 million in ONE year??? They just seem waaaaay too high for me. I mean, PS4 hasn't even seen a 20+ million year yet. Sorry, I'm against it and I almost wanna bet on it! :)



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DonFerrari on 12 December 2017
Johnw1104 said:

I do think PS4 will outsell the Switch lifetime because the hardware, for one, didn't age quite as fast as the Switch (which will hopefully offer a mid-gen upgrade like the other two).

Mainly, though, it's because they probably had the least competition for a huge portion of their run than any console since the first few years of the Atari VCS in NA. I really can't think of an example where a console had only two competitors, and both competitors absolutely face-planted and botched their entries from the start.

The end result was that the PS4 was simultaneously affordable and the strongest hardware-wise (that almost never happens), not held down by expensive peripherals, was the best system for multiplats, had a strong first party lineup, and was really just the logical choice for almost everyone.

We might not see such a favorable climate for a console to sell well again going forward. I don't think the Switch can ever catch that even if it does sell extremely well.

PS2 was even less opposed than PS4



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Gamer147 on 12 December 2017

PS4 is going to sell over 100 million units easily. The question is will the PS4 sell more units than the PS 2. So far the PS 2 is still the highest standard.



Johnw1104 on 12 December 2017
DonFerrari said:
Johnw1104 said:

I do think PS4 will outsell the Switch lifetime because the hardware, for one, didn't age quite as fast as the Switch (which will hopefully offer a mid-gen upgrade like the other two).

Mainly, though, it's because they probably had the least competition for a huge portion of their run than any console since the first few years of the Atari VCS in NA. I really can't think of an example where a console had only two competitors, and both competitors absolutely face-planted and botched their entries from the start.

The end result was that the PS4 was simultaneously affordable and the strongest hardware-wise (that almost never happens), not held down by expensive peripherals, was the best system for multiplats, had a strong first party lineup, and was really just the logical choice for almost everyone.

We might not see such a favorable climate for a console to sell well again going forward. I don't think the Switch can ever catch that even if it does sell extremely well.

PS2 was even less opposed than PS4

The PS2 had competition, but it was a very good DVD player for its price while also sporting good-but-not-great hardware that allowed them to price it very low, which helped sell the console to the mainstream in a way only the Wii really did otherwise. The two pre-existing rivals didn't have that capability, and the PS2 was already a smash hit by the time Microsoft made their entry into the industry.

That's definitely a good example, though... there was never really a chance that the other consoles would compete given the pricing and DVD capabilities. PS4's circumstances do rather compare, though I'd say the others botched their launches a lot worse in the recent generation.



Ryng on 12 December 2017
Teeqoz said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Yes, with most recent trend, Nintendo console seem to peak during his second or third year, both being very close, it also depend on markets. Europe usually peak later, Japan early, USA is usually closer to Europe but in reality is kinda a mix of the 2.

So i think third and second year will be very close, but if i have to choise a better year, it's probabily gonna be the second one. Then from the 4th year we can expect a consistent decrease every year before the new Nintendo console. Also second year bump is gonna be so high just because first year saw for a lot of time low shipments and no big deal on Black Friday. I expect Nintendo do ship sufficient units for the domand and this time i believe they will have a better November, something like Pokémon bundle or 250$ price promotion for BF seem likely to me.

Idk about 4th year, i predict it will but just barely. 2nd and 3rd are very likely tho.

Out of curiosity, what's your annual breakdown for PS4 sales for the rest of the gen?

It really depend if it release in 2019 or 2020. My bet is 2019, for now.

2018 - 18.0 million
2019 - 11.5 million
2020 - 6.5 million
2021 - 3.0 million
2022 - 1.2 million

If PS5 is 2020, then 2019 will be a 15 million year, and LT numbers will be +120m



TallSilhouette on 12 December 2017
Normchacho said:
Playstations are typically famously long lived while Nintendo systems are famously front loaded

This is what's on my mind as well. If old habits persist the Switch could have an excellent first half or so to its life until petering out on the latter end. I still don't think it'll beat the PS4's sales, but if it wants to make the 100M club it's up to Nintendo to support it steadily through its life and up to Game Freak to deliver the game people have been waiting more than 20 years for.