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Forums - Sales Discussion - Bold Prediction : PS4 goes over 130m Lifetime.

 

PS4 > 130m lifetime?

yes 43 48.31%
 
no 40 44.94%
 
see results. 6 6.74%
 
Total:89

The problem with all discussions about lifetime sales of consoles is that there is no longer a standard definition of what constitutes a generation. If Sony never releases a console called PlayStation 5, and simply continues to upgrade every few years, then you are obviously going to be correct at 130, or even 200 million. But, if the next console release represents the end of this current generation, 130 million seems unlikely.



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VAMatt said:

The problem with all discussions about lifetime sales of consoles is that there is no longer a standard definition of what constitutes a generation. If Sony never releases a console called PlayStation 5, and simply continues to upgrade every few years, then you are obviously going to be correct at 130, or even 200 million. But, if the next console release represents the end of this current generation, 130 million seems unlikely.

Im pretty sure what will happend is PS5 will be backwards compatible, but only it plays those games (PS5 games).

The PS4 wont be able to play PS5 game, so its its own new generation, not a continuation of the PS4.

However I still think its going over 130m.



S.Peelman said:
I'm not sure if I'll believe the thing to sell double what it sold until now for the remainder of it's life, I mean it is approaching it's fifth year. I guess it depends on how long it'll stay relevant.

Its not 'approaching' its fifth year for another full year.  Approaching would be like next September.



CosmicSex said:
S.Peelman said:
I'm not sure if I'll believe the thing to sell double what it sold until now for the remainder of it's life, I mean it is approaching it's fifth year. I guess it depends on how long it'll stay relevant.

Its not 'approaching' its fifth year for another full year.  Approaching would be like next September.

I was thinking februari for some reason, doesn't matter though.



JRPGfan said:

The topic is in the thread name.

Basically I believe the PS4 is heading for 130m+ lifetime sales.

Heres why:

 

2018:
God of War
Spider-Man
Yakuza 6 - the song of life
Fist of the North Star
Shadow of the Colossus remake
Secret of Mana Remake
Shenmue 3
Detroit - become human
Dragon Quest XI
Kingdom Hearts 3
Ni No Kuni 2 - Revenant Kingdom
Red Dead 2 (Marketing)
Monster Hunter World (Marketing)


2019:
Death Stranding
Last of Us - part 2
Devil May Cry 5
Ghost of Tsushima
Days Gone
Dreams
Concrete Genie
Final Fantasy VII Remake (Marketing)

 

They announced resently they had the best black friday of any in the history of playstation, and we saw what happend at 199$ for that 1tb model.

By end of the fiscal year (2017) in march (2018) they predicted to be over 79m shipped (they upped it 1m), and Im guessing they ll be well over 80m.

I think in 2018 you ll see 199$ price on PS4s.

I could image 2018 being another 20m ish year, and 2019 above 15m.

Even if 2020 is only a 10m year, that should put PS4 over 125m.

After PS5 launch's the PS4 will still sell atleast 5m.

This puts the PS4 over 130m.

Is that a crazy prediction? I honestly dont think so, if you do comment why you think so.

Why do you think Dreams will be 2019?! I expect it for next year for sure, but I guess we'll see in 12 days.

I don't think 130 life time sounds outrageous going by the low price point already experienced. I even expect an official price drop by at least 50 bucks announced on PSX. 



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I got this weird feeling that it could... worldwide sales included of course. The gaming market is at least triple what is it was back during the PS2 years back when i was in college. And i just see the demand again...200 dollar ps4s flying off then shelf and selling out....and thats just one year....and one model...if they release a 3rd model like a ps4 pro 2....then game over 120 to 130mil will be easy. Xbox exclusives just arent strong enough to win over the world.
Forza/gears of war and halo are just not strong enough. lets be honest....



squibbfire said:
I got this weird feeling that it could... worldwide sales included of course. The gaming market is at least triple what is it was back during the PS2 years back when i was in college. And i just see the demand again...200 dollar ps4s flying off then shelf and selling out....and thats just one year....and one model...if they release a 3rd model like a ps4 pro 2....then game over 120 to 130mil will be easy. Xbox exclusives just arent strong enough to win over the world.
Forza/gears of war and halo are just not strong enough. lets be honest....

There doesn't need to be a third model, that would be unnecessary. Other than slimmer and upgraded versions as usual, even cheaper to produce and less power hungry, of course. 

The next Playstation will be the PS5 and I don't think it's further away than 2-3 years atm..Sony have already announced that they do believe in a generational leap...things even pointing away from a APU solution as before. Due to X86 it will most likely have backwards compatibility to PS4, but not the other way around. Doesn't mean that, as usual, for some time games will still release for both consoles simultaneously, until market share for the new console has grown bigger.



If Sony put the price at $199 starting in January, they could do that, BF 2018 $149 and BF 2019 $99.



Huh... hard to say. I'm personally expecting 110-115M unless Sony keeps supporting the console after ps5 is released (which I assume will be out in 2020). And by that I mean supporting with big franchises and not just ports.

PS3's 2013 was amazing when you count first party games and even then, legs were pretty garbage after PS4 released, so I would say we can expect something similar this time.

I would say 130 is still possible but I'm not seeing it yet



Lawlight said:
NATO said:
I'm guessing somewhere between 92-105 personally

This is much bolder than what TC has stated. To think that the PS4 might only sell 13M from March 2018 onwards is very bold.

See, the trick is to low ball it, so when it does 120+ you get to say it blew past your expectations rather than "it did what I was expecting"