Forums - Sales Discussion - My Nintendo Switch prediction (made in January) is still looking strong

Back in January, what was your opinion about this prediction?

Absolutely crazy 8 25.00%
 
Not impossible, but absolutely bold. 7 21.88%
 
probabily about right, but a bit too much 2 6.25%
 
very close to what i predicted 9 28.13%
 
i predicted even more tha... 1 3.13%
 
You was / still are crazy... 5 15.63%
 
Total:32

Congrats !

Now, I probably should erase any trace of my past predictions when the Switch was revealed ...

P.S : I predicted around 50M LT



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I predicted the same numbers in April. However when I wrote that I was thinking it was too high.  You are way more confident than I was. That's some mighty prediction power right there. 



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killeryoshis said:

I predicted the same numbers in April. However when I wrote that I was thinking it was too high.  You are way more confident than I was. That's some mighty prediction power right there. 

This prediction was very solid, but rememb.

There was a big difference between April and January.

In April it was still bold for many people, expecially because Nintendo only expected 12.74 million lifetime by March 2017. Even so, we saw a super strong launch, some record sales breaks, and Switch was doing very well in general.

 

In January it was way difference than that. Not only in January, BUT in January 13, so just after the conference. It was so doom for 90% of people. Many user were saying Switch could have sold less than the Wii U. Or in some case only 20/30 million lifetime. Many other were saying 50 million was already hard to reach lifetime. And 15 million only for the first year, at the time, was super crazy for people. 

 

That said, even if there is a big difference between January and April, even in April 15 million was way too high for almost everyone, so you still did a very good job.



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 11m, XB1 4m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, 9m PS4 and 3m XB1, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

RolStoppable said:
I am proud.

While I expected Switch to sell more than 100m units lifetime, I was cautious about its first year with sell-through of 8m, so 9m shipped. I thought it would take more time for Switch to gain traction, but the market quickly embraced the system. Even in Europe which is commonly said to be a weak market for Nintendo (which I don't agree with), Switch is doing well on a consistent basis.


Shamelessly plugging my megathread here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224719

im very new to this site, but i have definitely been under the interpretation (is that the right phrase?) that europe is a weak market for nintendo. i know that wii/ds sold a heap in europe, but currently, is the switch not underperforming in europe when compared to other major regions?

you dont have to elaborate, just you seem rather knowledgable and i am not, especially in regards to the situation in europe. 



LimaBean01 said:

im very new to this site, but i have definitely been under the interpretation (is that the right phrase?) that europe is a weak market for nintendo. i know that wii/ds sold a heap in europe, but currently, is the switch not underperforming in europe when compared to other major regions?

you dont have to elaborate, just you seem rather knowledgable and i am not, especially in regards to the situation in europe. 

Switch shipments by region:

Japan - 1.95m
Americas - 3.11m
Other - 2.56m

The vast majority of 'Other' is Europe, so the numbers are fine. It's not that Switch is underperforming in Europe, rather it's the PS4 proportionally doing much better in Europe than in Japan and America that creates the impression that Switch isn't doing well in Europe. Or put another way, Switch is beating the PS4 in Japan and America, but not in Europe; therefore the expectation is that Switch should be doing the same in Europe.

The most common snapshot of the European market happens to be the weekly GfK software charts for the United Kingdom, a country that is unique for Europe because it's the only one where Xbox is selling well. Because of that, you get Xbox games charting which in turn push Nintendo software down. Essentially, the UK shows Nintendo in the worst light. Software charts from other European countries look a lot better for Nintendo.

Proportionally speaking, it is true that Europe represents Switch's weakest region between Japan, America and Europe, but the sales aren't at a level that would be cause for concern. When you factor in that Switch hardware pricing is less favorable in Europe than in Japan and America, and that the European market is historically more price-sensitive than the other two major regions, the numbers up till now are really fine. Switch is off to a very solid start in Europe and will be able to gain more traction once the hardware price gets lower. It's going to take a while until a price cut though, because right now the sales are at a level that doesn't necessitate a price cut.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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RolStoppable said:
LimaBean01 said:

im very new to this site, but i have definitely been under the interpretation (is that the right phrase?) that europe is a weak market for nintendo. i know that wii/ds sold a heap in europe, but currently, is the switch not underperforming in europe when compared to other major regions?

you dont have to elaborate, just you seem rather knowledgable and i am not, especially in regards to the situation in europe. 

Switch shipments by region:

Japan - 1.95m
Americas - 3.11m
Other - 2.56m

The vast majority of 'Other' is Europe, so the numbers are fine. It's not that Switch is underperforming in Europe, rather it's the PS4 proportionally doing much better in Europe than in Japan and America that creates the impression that Switch isn't doing well in Europe. Or put another way, Switch is beating the PS4 in Japan and America, but not in Europe; therefore the expectation is that Switch should be doing the same in Europe.

The most common snapshot of the European market happens to be the weekly GfK software charts for the United Kingdom, a country that is unique for Europe because it's the only one where Xbox is selling well. Because of that, you get Xbox games charting which in turn push Nintendo software down. Essentially, the UK shows Nintendo in the worst light. Software charts from other European countries look a lot better for Nintendo.

Proportionally speaking, it is true that Europe represents Switch's weakest region between Japan, America and Europe, but the sales aren't at a level that would be cause for concern. When you factor in that Switch hardware pricing is less favorable in Europe than in Japan and America, and that the European market is historically more price-sensitive than the other two major regions, the numbers up till now are really fine. Switch is off to a very solid start in Europe and will be able to gain more traction once the hardware price gets lower. It's going to take a while until a price cut though, because right now the sales are at a level that doesn't necessitate a price cut.

thank you! thats really interesting. 

so its not so much that the switch is performing poorly in europe, just that it has the PS4 casting a shadow over it lol. i guess i just assumed europe was weaker because i often see weekly hardware for the switch at 30k on the home page, whilst it is closer to 60-70k for US and japan. 

again, thankyou :)



LimaBean01 said:

thank you! thats really interesting. 

so its not so much that the switch is performing poorly in europe, just that it has the PS4 casting a shadow over it lol. i guess i just assumed europe was weaker because i often see weekly hardware for the switch at 30k on the home page, whilst it is closer to 60-70k for US and japan. 

again, thankyou :)

It's quite possible that VGC attributes too many sales to the rest of the world, so Europe looks a bit worse than it actually is. Switch is available in Australia, but it should hardly have any presence in Asia up till now; the launches in South Korea and Taiwan are scheduled for December 1st, and South Korea is actually quite high on Nintendo's pecking order when it comes to Asia. I am really not sure why VGC grants the rest of the world as many Switch sales as they do. Admittedly, I've only looked at the most recent week where Europe is at ~40k and the rest of the world is at ~20k, but if that has been the norm, then Europe is missing out on ~10k units per week that it should actually have, because Nintendo has yet to launch the Switch in many countries.

That's one of the caveats of VGC estimates. Even when they are in the right ballpark for worldwide sales, the distribution isn't necessarily correct.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Final bump!

 

Can't say i'm not happy with this.

 

I mess up some quarter, in particular the last 2, i underestimate Q3 and i overestimate Q4, but overall, yearly prediction was off by only 1%. Let's go!



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 11m, XB1 4m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, 9m PS4 and 3m XB1, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

Congrats, Tolu.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

i'm surprised that i can understand your article fairly well. Knowing portuguese is really useful,i'm realizing.

Anyway,great predictions.You're probably one of the few that saw the true appeal of the switch.