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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How many major exclusives does the Switch need to gain out each year to maintain popularity?

 

How many major exclusives will the Switch need per year?

1 11 4.33%
 
2 30 11.81%
 
3 88 34.65%
 
4 125 49.21%
 
Total:254
Peach_buggy said:

Even using 3 of their biggest franchises a year still gives Nintendo over 3 years before they run out of their top IP's. Also, Mario Party has the potential to be a 5+m franchise on a successful console, as does Metroid if Nintendo can create enough hype for it. After 3 years Nintendo can begin to offer sequels to the aforementioned big hitters. Also, there are collaborations, unknowns and new IP's to think of. 

If anyone has the IP's to pull it off, Nintendo has.

That JUST leaves Nintendo with 3 years if they go with that strategy, not OVER ... 

Mario Party stopped being important, the last time the franchise ever broke 5M+ units was on Wii/DS in which the games were released nearly a deacde ago ... 

Metroid becoming a flagship is nothing more than your hopes and dreams. Metroid as a franchise is past it's prime when we consider it's popularity peaked during GC with Metroid Prime selling 2.8M units and then decreasing afterwards with the Wii ... 

Even Nintendo has a limit to how many flagships they can have or create ... 



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Mario party sold nearly 9m last time it was on a successful console. All indications so far are that the Switch is going to be a successful console. Admittedly the quality has gone down in recent efforts but if Nintendo can somehow find a successful formula for it again i have no reason to believe it won't be a 5+m seller again. Metroid peaked on a console with a userbase of 22m. Switch will reach that in less than 2 years. I can't see any reason why Metroid can't become a big franchise if Nintendo really gets behind it with the Switch and hypes and markets the hell out of it.

Not sure how you come up with 3 IP'sx3 years= 11. It actually leaves 2 big IP's over, hence me saying "over 3 years".



fatslob-:O said:
That will depend on how well the market reacts to the Switch's current lineup but so far the Switch will need at the very minimum of 2 flagships (games that will go on to sell 5M+ units in their LT) per year to maintain current demand ...

With Nintendo depleting their potential rather quickly (they already used Zelda, 3D Mario, Splatoon and not to the fullest extent Mario Kart) that leaves them with Pokemon, 2D Mario, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros and those with potential to become flagships includes Tomodachi, Luigi's Mansion along with Donkey Kong ... (Nintendo will have released 4 out of their 11 biggest current franchises for Switch in it's first year!)

With Monster Hunter and Yokai Watch not being as strong as they were, Nintendo will find themselves at an impasse with the Switch once they used all of their biggest franchises ...

Mario Kart 8 DX is tracking better than the original and that was the highest seller on WiiU, so I'm not sure what more you want from a port. And being a port, it leaves them more than enough room/time to try and pump out a Mario Kart 9 later down the road.

What's most important for the Switch is that it's created the initial momentum needed to bring people in, so all they really need is to avoid any massive droughts like with the Wii, while making sure they keep the strong 3rd party and indie support they've already generated.

Everything about the Switch is on the right trajectory, so there's no need for Nintendo to try and break their backs cranking out all the games any time soon.

Let's just play out 2017 and wait to see what the 2018 landscape looks like. If there's a noticeable lack of game announcements and reveals, then maybe we can start crying for urgency. But so far they've already laid more than enough groundwork.

fatslob-:O said:
Peach_buggy said:

Even using 3 of their biggest franchises a year still gives Nintendo over 3 years before they run out of their top IP's. Also, Mario Party has the potential to be a 5+m franchise on a successful console, as does Metroid if Nintendo can create enough hype for it. After 3 years Nintendo can begin to offer sequels to the aforementioned big hitters. Also, there are collaborations, unknowns and new IP's to think of. 

If anyone has the IP's to pull it off, Nintendo has.

That JUST leaves Nintendo with 3 years if they go with that strategy, not OVER ... 

Mario Party stopped being important, the last time the franchise ever broke 5M+ units was on Wii/DS in which the games were released nearly a deacde ago ... 

Metroid becoming a flagship is nothing more than your hopes and dreams. Metroid as a franchise is past it's prime when we consider it's popularity peaked during GC with Metroid Prime selling 2.8M units and then decreasing afterwards with the Wii ... 

Even Nintendo has a limit to how many flagships they can have or create ... 

Why are you even trying to predict what they could do for the next 3 years?

We have no idea what the gaming landscape will look like by then, or what sort of strategies/franchises Nintendo may come up with, so these comments are fairly premature.

Also saying Metroid's popularity peaked as if people weren't losing their minds simply seeing a logo, or that Mario Party isn't important because of one mediocre game on an already dead system. I think you are being way too presumptuous.

You'd think after the Switch and how everyone pretty much got it wrong, people would stop trying to make these wild predictions.



If it´s true that the new main Pokemon is releasing next year and they start promoting it early and heavy like they did with SUMO, then that´s the only game that Switch needs to have a great year :D
I´m also expecting a new Wario Land or a new Warioware for next year, and I don´t know about Yoshi (because I thought that Woolly´s World was going to sell very well) but Kirby is going to pass 2M without doubt :)



It's not just the major exclusives that maintain momentum it's also having good selection of decent to good exclusives as well as that's what has driven the 3DS. The 3DS has the usual amount of major exclusives Nintendo gets but a load of decent to good exclusives that fill up the library.



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Peach_buggy said:
Mario party sold nearly 9m last time it was on a successful console. All indications so far are that the Switch is going to be a successful console. Admittedly the quality has gone down in recent efforts but if Nintendo can somehow find a successful formula for it again i have no reason to believe it won't be a 5+m seller again. Metroid peaked on a console with a userbase of 22m. Switch will reach that in less than 2 years. I can't see any reason why Metroid can't become a big franchise if Nintendo really gets behind it with the Switch and hypes and markets the hell out of it.

Not sure how you come up with 3 IP'sx3 years= 11. It actually leaves 2 big IP's over, hence me saying "over 3 years".

@Bold Which was nearly a decade ago with Mario Party DS and are you implicating that the 3DS wasn't a successful console now ? Have you seen the recent numbers for Mario Party yet ? (the last release sold less than a million units so far and the first iteration on the 3DS just pushed over 2M units) 

There's every reason to believe Mario Party won't do 5M+ units, the biggest reason being the Switch most likely won't even reach the same demographics like the Wii or DS did ... 

My point of Metroid peaking on a much smaller userbase indicates that Metroid's popularity is not connected to the platform it released on ... (I think it's time to let go of the idea that Metroid will ever become a flagship franchise when Nintendo has tried for the past 3 decades. Hype will only go so far when the general consumer is disinterested with both the concept and content of Metroid.) 

Shaunodon said:

Mario Kart 8 DX is tracking better than the original and that was the highest seller on WiiU, so I'm not sure what more you want from a port. And being a port, it leaves them more than enough room/time to try and pump out a Mario Kart 9 later down the road.

What's most important for the Switch is that it's created the initial momentum needed to bring people in, so all they really need is to avoid any massive droughts like with the Wii, while making sure they keep the strong 3rd party and indie support they've already generated.

Everything about the Switch is on the right trajectory, so there's no need for Nintendo to try and break their backs cranking out all the games any time soon.

Let's just play out 2017 and wait to see what the 2018 landscape looks like. If there's a noticeable lack of game announcements and reveals, then maybe we can start crying for urgency. But so far they've already laid more than enough groundwork.

I'm just saying there's more potential to be had with a new Mario Kart game than a port but whatever ... 

3rd party support doesn't matter much anymore since Nintendo's biggest 3rd party games (Monster Hunter and Yokai Watch) are weaker than ever and indies don't push hardware sales either ... 

If you mean by 'right trajectory' going by Nintendo's forecasts as in similar to the 3DS then sure ... 

Shaunodon said:

Why are you even trying to predict what they could do for the next 3 years?

We have no idea what the gaming landscape will look like by then, or what sort of strategies/franchises Nintendo may come up with, so these comments are fairly premature.

Also saying Metroid's popularity peaked as if people weren't losing their minds simply seeing a logo, or that Mario Party isn't important because of one mediocre game on an already dead system. I think you are being way too presumptuous.

You'd think after the Switch and how everyone pretty much got it wrong, people would stop trying to make these wild predictions. 

I'm not and everyone's franchises in the console gaming industry is a known quanitity at this point, it's the strategy we don't know what Nintendo is going to take ... 

Metroid's popularity most likely did peak, back in the Gamecube days. Metroid Prime 3 alone failed to sell over 2M copies on a system that is 4x more popular than the predecessor it was on. The only one's losing their minds over Metroid Prime 4 are nothing more than the hardcore fans of the series and Mario Party didn't fade into irrelevancy with just one entry after Mario Party 9, it happened 3 times with Island Tour, 10 and Star Rush ... (all recent entries having selling less than 3M units and especially Star Rush) 

I'm the one being presumptuous ? LOL, you can go take your romanticism with you to la la land since what I stated are obvious facts grounded in nothing more than plain reality ... 

'Wild predictions' ? Bwahaha, keep demeaning me when you don't want to have your expectations realistically in check ... 



AlfredoTurkey said:
StarDoor said:

Well, the beauty of Switch is that it'll get the best version of every franchise. It's not like the 10+ million people who bought Animal Crossing on 3DS will disappear. Animal Crossing on Switch will be just as big as the previous handheld versions because there's no alternative.

You don't think there will be an impact due to the higher cost of entry? 

I don't. Switch had massive demand right out of the gate at $300, whereas 3ds kind of flat lined until they price cut the thing down to $180 from $250. That alone tells you the Switch is going to have no problem getting people on board long term. And that's not including the fact that the Switch is being sold at a profit and so they will have lots of wiggle room to discount it at some point to increase demand even further. AC Switch is gonna be one of the most sold games of this generation, in my opinion, just like New Leaf was for 3ds.



fatslob-:O said:
Peach_buggy said:
Mario party sold nearly 9m last time it was on a successful console. All indications so far are that the Switch is going to be a successful console. Admittedly the quality has gone down in recent efforts but if Nintendo can somehow find a successful formula for it again i have no reason to believe it won't be a 5+m seller again. Metroid peaked on a console with a userbase of 22m. Switch will reach that in less than 2 years. I can't see any reason why Metroid can't become a big franchise if Nintendo really gets behind it with the Switch and hypes and markets the hell out of it.

Not sure how you come up with 3 IP'sx3 years= 11. It actually leaves 2 big IP's over, hence me saying "over 3 years".

@Bold Which was nearly a decade ago with Mario Party DS and are you implicating that the 3DS wasn't a successful console now ? Have you seen the recent numbers for Mario Party yet ? (the last release sold less than a million units so far and the first iteration on the 3DS just pushed over 2M units) 

There's every reason to believe Mario Party won't do 5M+ units, the biggest reason being the Switch most likely won't even reach the same demographics like the Wii or DS did ... 

My point of Metroid peaking on a much smaller userbase indicates that Metroid's popularity is not connected to the platform it released on ... (I think it's time to let go of the idea that Metroid will ever become a flagship franchise when Nintendo has tried for the past 3 decades. Hype will only go so far when the general consumer is disinterested with both the concept and content of Metroid.) 

Shaunodon said:

Mario Kart 8 DX is tracking better than the original and that was the highest seller on WiiU, so I'm not sure what more you want from a port. And being a port, it leaves them more than enough room/time to try and pump out a Mario Kart 9 later down the road.

What's most important for the Switch is that it's created the initial momentum needed to bring people in, so all they really need is to avoid any massive droughts like with the Wii, while making sure they keep the strong 3rd party and indie support they've already generated.

Everything about the Switch is on the right trajectory, so there's no need for Nintendo to try and break their backs cranking out all the games any time soon.

Let's just play out 2017 and wait to see what the 2018 landscape looks like. If there's a noticeable lack of game announcements and reveals, then maybe we can start crying for urgency. But so far they've already laid more than enough groundwork.

I'm just saying there's more potential to be had with a new Mario Kart game than a port but whatever ... 

3rd party support doesn't matter much anymore since Nintendo's biggest 3rd party games (Monster Hunter and Yokai Watch) are weaker than ever and indies don't push hardware sales either ... 

If you mean by 'right trajectory' going by Nintendo's forecasts as in similar to the 3DS then sure ... 

Shaunodon said:

Why are you even trying to predict what they could do for the next 3 years?

We have no idea what the gaming landscape will look like by then, or what sort of strategies/franchises Nintendo may come up with, so these comments are fairly premature.

Also saying Metroid's popularity peaked as if people weren't losing their minds simply seeing a logo, or that Mario Party isn't important because of one mediocre game on an already dead system. I think you are being way too presumptuous.

You'd think after the Switch and how everyone pretty much got it wrong, people would stop trying to make these wild predictions. 

I'm not and everyone's franchises in the console gaming industry is a known quanitity at this point, it's the strategy we don't know what Nintendo is going to take ... 

Metroid's popularity most likely did peak, back in the Gamecube days. Metroid Prime 3 alone failed to sell over 2M copies on a system that is 4x more popular than the predecessor it was on. The only one's losing their minds over Metroid Prime 4 are nothing more than the hardcore fans of the series and Mario Party didn't fade into irrelevancy with just one entry after Mario Party 9, it happened 3 times with Island Tour, 10 and Star Rush ... (all recent entries having selling less than 3M units and especially Star Rush) 

I'm the one being presumptuous ? LOL, you can go take your romanticism with you to la la land since what I stated are obvious facts grounded in nothing more than plain reality ... 

'Wild predictions' ? Bwahaha, keep demeaning me when you don't want to have your expectations realistically in check ... 

Perhaps i should have added the word "Home"? Meaning Mario parties perform better on home consoles. With the Switch, it will have the best of both worlds.  Same goes for Metroid. Tbh i think you should go back 2 gens with Nintendo if you wanna try to predict trends. The Wii u was a carcrash and not much trendworthy data can be gleaned from it imho. The fact remains. Last time Mario Party was on a successful (HOME) console it sold way over 5m. Stop trying to predict what you want to happen through trends and actually use logic. This is a Nintendo discussion and i know you only come on these to either troll or try and downplay its success. Well massaging the trends to how you WANT them to appear still ain't gonna make it happen!



Dulfite said:
AlfredoTurkey said:

You don't think there will be an impact due to the higher cost of entry? 

I don't. Switch had massive demand right out of the gate at $300, whereas 3ds kind of flat lined until they price cut the thing down to $180 from $250. That alone tells you the Switch is going to have no problem getting people on board long term. And that's not including the fact that the Switch is being sold at a profit and so they will have lots of wiggle room to discount it at some point to increase demand even further. AC Switch is gonna be one of the most sold games of this generation, in my opinion, just like New Leaf was for 3ds.

I hope so but I'm going to be a bit more cautious and temper my expectations. 



Peach_buggy said:

Perhaps i should have added the word "Home"? Meaning Mario parties perform better on home consoles. With the Switch, it will have the best of both worlds.  Same goes for Metroid. Tbh i think you should go back 2 gens with Nintendo if you wanna try to predict trends. The Wii u was a carcrash and not much trendworthy data can be gleaned from it imho. The fact remains. Last time Mario Party was on a successful (HOME) console it sold way over 5m. Stop trying to predict what you want to happen through trends and actually use logic. This is a Nintendo discussion and i know you only come on these to either troll or try and downplay its success. Well massaging the trends to how you WANT them to appear still ain't gonna make it happen!

@Bold That statement falls apart once we consider that Mario Party DS outsold Mario Party 8 and that Mario Party: Island Tour outsold Mario Party 10. In the 7th and 8th gen, Mario Party on Nintendo's handhelds outsold their console equivalents so what you said doesn't hold ... 

Are you implying that Mario Party didn't see success on Nintendo's portable systems ? Also not true since the highest sellling Mario Party game is Mario Party DS which outsold Mario Party 8 on the Wii ... 

You ask me to use logic yet you stated two incorrect statements in your post ? LMAO ... 

I come to Nintendo threads cause that's what everyone else seems to want to discuss (not much reason to post in dead threads) so why don't you cut your crappy confirmation bias out of this thread and stop accusing me as a troll when you don't like my posts and start putting some real effort into your arguments like you failed to last time when we discussed about Switch's stock ?