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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How many major exclusives does the Switch need to gain out each year to maintain popularity?

 

How many major exclusives will the Switch need per year?

1 11 4.33%
 
2 30 11.81%
 
3 88 34.65%
 
4 125 49.21%
 
Total:254
fatslob-:O on 17 October 2017
Peach_buggy said:

Actually i did check the Mario Party numbers and yes i was surprised. I had assumed it was Mario Party 8 that had sold 8.9m,  when it was in fact Mario Party on DS. The fact that Mario party sells just as well on handhelds is actually detrimental to your argument though in that case. Seeing  how Switch can be both it will appeal to both console and handheld-based MP purchasers. I'm actually quite interested in following sales trends for franchises and upon investigation,  Mario Party sales seem to be almost exclusively tied to the userbase. The more sales a console gets, the more sales MP gets. So this makes me even more confident Mario Party can return to the 5m+ sales, big hitter threshold, as looking at the Switches sales trajectory, it seems much closer to the Wii than the 3ds. All this is immaterial though if the series is still crap. 10 was pretty bad tbh. (Can't comment on the 3ds titles though, as i don't own any. Definitely picking up the top 100 though!)

@Not really, the only argument I made is that Mario Party sells regardless of whether it'd be home console or portable ... 

When all is said and done Mario Party: Island Tour will be ~4x smaller in comparison to the last portable entry which was Mario Party DS while 3DS will only be 2x smaller in comparison to the DS ...

It's an undeniable fact that Mario Party declined whether home console or not though ... 



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Peach_buggy on 17 October 2017
fatslob-:O said:
Peach_buggy said:

Actually i did check the Mario Party numbers and yes i was surprised. I had assumed it was Mario Party 8 that had sold 8.9m,  when it was in fact Mario Party on DS. The fact that Mario party sells just as well on handhelds is actually detrimental to your argument though in that case. Seeing  how Switch can be both it will appeal to both console and handheld-based MP purchasers. I'm actually quite interested in following sales trends for franchises and upon investigation,  Mario Party sales seem to be almost exclusively tied to the userbase. The more sales a console gets, the more sales MP gets. So this makes me even more confident Mario Party can return to the 5m+ sales, big hitter threshold, as looking at the Switches sales trajectory, it seems much closer to the Wii than the 3ds. All this is immaterial though if the series is still crap. 10 was pretty bad tbh. (Can't comment on the 3ds titles though, as i don't own any. Definitely picking up the top 100 though!)

@Not really, the only argument I made is that Mario Party sells regardless of whether it'd be home console or portable ... 

When all is said and done Mario Party: Island Tour will be ~4x smaller in comparison to the last portable entry which was Mario Party DS while 3DS will only be 2x smaller in comparison to the DS ...

It's an undeniable fact that Mario Party declined whether home console or not though ... 

It only declined because of smaller userbase, although in the case of 9 and 10 it may have been because they were bad games but my point still stands. Get it onto a console with the potential of a much larger userbase and it will sell more. That seems to be the case here with MP and with the Switch i believe it has the potential to be a 5m seller again. That's assuming the games aren't crap tho!



fatslob-:O on 17 October 2017
Peach_buggy said:

It only declined because of smaller userbase, although in the case of 9 and 10 it may have been because they were bad games but my point still stands. Get it onto a console with the potential of a much larger userbase and it will sell more. That seems to be the case here with MP and with the Switch i believe it has the potential to be a 5m seller again. That's assuming the games aren't crap tho!

Also what you said about Switch's sales trajectory matching the Wii isn't even close to true ... (For the calendar year of 2007, the Wii sold ~16.5M units alone whereas Nintendo expects to ship 13M units for the end of this fiscal year which is behind what the 3DS did in a similar timeframe!) 

Mario Party: Island Tour was released with a much smaller userbase on 3DS yet Mario Party: Star Rush sold less despite releasing on a higher install base with the 3DS ... 



zorg1000 on 17 October 2017

1 major and 1-2 medium sized 1st party titles each quarter is what they did this year and it would be wise to continue that formula.

Q1-Breath of the Wild, 1-2 Switch
Q2-Mario Kart Deluxe, ARMS
Q3-Splatoon 2, Mario Rabbids, Pokken DX
Q4-FE Warriors, Mario Odyssey, Xenoblade 2

They can have the ocassional quarter without a mega release as long as the gap isnt too large and there are 2-3 medium sized games in between. Heres a sample of what 2018 could look like.

February-Kirby
April-Smash Bros Deluxe
June-Yoshi
August-Fire Emblem
September-Animal Crossing
October-Metroid Prime
November-Pokemon
December-Mario Party



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Peach_buggy on 17 October 2017
fatslob-:O said:
Peach_buggy said:

It only declined because of smaller userbase, although in the case of 9 and 10 it may have been because they were bad games but my point still stands. Get it onto a console with the potential of a much larger userbase and it will sell more. That seems to be the case here with MP and with the Switch i believe it has the potential to be a 5m seller again. That's assuming the games aren't crap tho!

Also what you said about Switch's sales trajectory matching the Wii isn't even close to true ... (For the calendar year of 2007, the Wii sold ~16.5M units alone whereas Nintendo expects to ship 13M units for the end of this fiscal year which is behind what the 3DS did in a similar timeframe!) 

Mario Party: Island Tour was released with a much smaller userbase on 3DS yet Mario Party: Star Rush sold less despite releasing on a higher install base with the 3DS ... 

I fully expect Nintendo to increase that forecast and we all know Nintendo would have sold 16.5m had they been available instead for being sold out in many regions, something they still haven't fully rectified even now. Also,the 3ds needed a price cut to even approach that figure!



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fatslob-:O on 17 October 2017
Peach_buggy said:

I fully expect Nintendo to increase that forecast and we all know Nintendo would have sold 16.5m had they been available instead for being sold out in many regions, something they still haven't fully rectified even now. Also,the 3ds needed a price cut to even approach that figure!

That's not true ... 

The Switch has been in stock everywhere aside from in Japan! The fact that anyone could obtain a Switch unit AT MSRP immediately in many of the nations served means that the system's sell through rate is slowing down ... (heck I could walk into any random Gamestop, Walmart or electronic retailer's store right now and walk out with a Switch unit without having to pay a higher price anymore than necessary) 



Peach_buggy on 18 October 2017
fatslob-:O said:
Peach_buggy said:

I fully expect Nintendo to increase that forecast and we all know Nintendo would have sold 16.5m had they been available instead for being sold out in many regions, something they still haven't fully rectified even now. Also,the 3ds needed a price cut to even approach that figure!

That's not true ... 

The Switch has been in stock everywhere aside from in Japan! The fact that anyone could obtain a Switch unit AT MSRP immediately in many of the nations served means that the system's sell through rate is slowing down ... (heck I could walk into any random Gamestop, Walmart or electronic retailer's store right now and walk out with a Switch unit without having to pay a higher price anymore than necessary) 

You only need to check Amazon,there's a thread right here that will tell you differently. The neon and grey are both selling over MRSP regularly in Amazon U.S., Amazon France and a few others. The stock situation never really caught up, when the Odyssey hype caught on and even though there seems to be massive stock in the U.S. it still sells out regularly, you gonna tell me that's not gonna harm sales, hmmm?



AJNShelton on 18 October 2017

Nintendo needs to create a new annual IP. Like the Mario Party series, why not releasing one per year ?



fatslob-:O on 18 October 2017
Peach_buggy said:

You only need to check Amazon,there's a thread right here that will tell you differently. The neon and grey are both selling over MRSP regularly in Amazon U.S., Amazon France and a few others. The stock situation never really caught up, when the Odyssey hype caught on and even though there seems to be massive stock in the U.S. it still sells out regularly, you gonna tell me that's not gonna harm sales, hmmm?

Pretty much a falsehood right there and if you wanted a unit with neon joycons so badly at MSRP you could just go to gamestop instead ... (There has been virtually no stock issue in Europe either for MONTHS now!) 

The fact is Switch's sell through rate is slowing down with respect to availability and that is a consistent view once we factor in that Switch's last big hardware pusher was Splatoon 2 which was nearly 3 months ago ... 



teamsilent13 on 18 October 2017

The only way I buy a Switch is if Metroid Prime 4 or whatever it's called (Phazon and dark samus are gone I thought?) knocks it out of the park and really blows away expectations. If it's just quality of life improvements over the trilogy games then I won't be buying it, but it's the most hyped I've been for nintendo in years. So for me the answer is one. A Metroid that takes the franchise to new heights. One good game and I will buy the system. BoTW graphics turn me off to the game and I find some elements of the game generic. I'd rather just play Skyrim. Mario is just a child's game imo. I have no interest. Metroid is really all I care about with nintendo so I hope they get it right.