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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How many major exclusives does the Switch need to gain out each year to maintain popularity?

 

How many major exclusives will the Switch need per year?

1 11 4.33%
 
2 30 11.81%
 
3 88 34.65%
 
4 125 49.21%
 
Total:254
wombat123 on 18 October 2017
fatslob-:O said:
wombat123 said:

You're the one that pointed out the Wii's 100m userbase as a means to make Metroid Prime 3's numbers look worse and hammer your argument that the Metroid series is in decline.  I was just saying that it isn't as cut and dry as you tried to make it sound by pointing out how other Nintendo core franchises did on the Wii compared to the Gamecube.  You were using the total Wii numbers to pad your argument when you knew that almost 2/3 of that 100m didn't give a crap about most of Nintendo's core franchises.

My point wasn't even to illustrate that Metroid was in decline. You excusing Metroid's decline from GC to the Wii is nothing more than cherry on top of a cake ... 

wombat123 said:

The easier explaination to me as to why Prime 2 and 3  didn't reach the same numbers as the original is due to franchise fatigue.  In a five year span, Nintendo pushed out three Metroid Prime games.  I personally like Metroid Prime  but I don't like Metroid Prime that much.  By the time MP3 came out, I was ready for a 4-5 year break from the series and I'm guessing more fans burnt out earlier.  The Metroid Prime series overall isn't the kind that can have sequels in such a short amount of time and stave off franchise fatigue; it doesn't have an ongoing narrative that's engaging enough to keep people hooked like with the Mass Effect Trilogy, it doesn't have a casual pick up and play nature of a 2D sidescroller like NSMB nor does it feature multiplayer gameplay that somehow gets people addicted to it like with CoD.  For a series like Metroid Prime, it needs 4-5 years between sequels to get people recharged and hungry for another round.  And it's not just Metroid Prime; look at something like Mario Galaxy 2.  It was just as good as the original but sold 4m less because it was released only 2 1/2 years after Galaxy 1.  Four million people already had their fill of 3D Mario and needed time to recharge -- and I think it was same deal with Metroid Prime 2 & 3: Nintendo didn't give fans enough time to recharge.  They're overcharged now, which is why I expect MP4 to sell better than the original as long as it's a great game.

'Franchise fatigue' is just another excuse. How do sports titles such as FIFA, RPG's such as Pokemon or FPS's such as COD manage to keep up despite all having new releases in less than 2 years compared to their last entries release ? Your entire statement is totally off base. What even prevents Metroid from achieving the same ? 

wombat123 said:

I'll even repeat what you said with your Mario Party argument later as another argument for MP4 chances of success: the reason Metroid Prime 3 didn't sell as well as the original is because the demographics of the Wii didn't allow it to and that's the reason why MP4 will sell well: because the Switch's demographics or games so far encourages more of these core types games.

As for Mario Party, I'll admit that I was focusing on 3DS numbers and didn't even think of any other platforms.  My main argument though was that I believed that the Switch's form factor would allow a Mario Party game to flourish.  I don't think it's going to sell 10m but I believe it'll outsell the 3DS versions.

Demographics aren't the reason for MP3's decline, it's a reason for MP8's success though ... (How did demographics not affect Zelda, Smash Bros and Animal Crossing in a megative manner ?) 


My point wasn't even to illustrate that Metroid was in decline. You excusing Metroid's decline from GC to the Wii is nothing more than cherry on top of a cake ...

I see it as looking at patterns and parallels (attach rates) and demographics (the high amount of casual gamers on the Wii). Here's the thing that I think you're not getting from me:  I believe that Metroid Prime 3 had a larger potential audience to sell to than the original Prime game, I've even said as much. I'm not blaming the casual crowd for MP3 not selling fantastically nor do I think that the the Wii's overall demographics negatively affected its sales potential compared to the original Prime game. How could I believe that when I've already stated that I believed the Wii had a larger core userbase than the Gamecube?  I only thing I questioned was when you implied that MP3 had a legit 100m potential audience to sell to when just about everyone knows that's not true.  Because if it were true, then almost all core games on the Wii would have gotten sales boosts similar to what casual friendly games like NSMB and Mario Kart got. That's why I mirrored your statements about Mario Party in the opposite because if the Wii's casual crowd actually did buy core games, then MP3 would have outsold the original Prime game.  Prime 3 would've had to have been a legit bad game to sell at less than a 3% attach rate on an install base of 100m non-casual gamers.

On the other hand, the Switch has a userbase that (so far) has bought core games at a higher rate than we've seen on Nintendo consoles in generations and that bodes well for MP4 (as long as it delivers) and other future core games.  The overall numbers for the Switch are also not as inflated in-terms of potential audience for a core game like MP4.  If the Switch has an install base of 40m, I feel like it's a legit 40m that MP4 could be sold to.  If it were selling on the Wii, I'd think the actual potential audience of that 40m would be 13m while the other 27m would rather buy Wii-branded software and Just Dance.

I don't see Metroid's sales tied entirely to an extremely vocal online minority like I think you do nor do I think that Metroid Prime 4 has a hard sales ceiling.  I see it as variable based on core install base, demand and time between titles to the point where I'd be more inclined to believe that it could sell at an attach rate of around 8-12% on the Switch if it's a legitimately good game.


'Franchise fatigue' is just another excuse. How do sports titles such as FIFA, RPG's such as Pokemon or FPS's such as COD manage to keep up despite all having new releases in less than 2 years compared to their last entries release ? Your entire statement is totally off base. What even prevents Metroid from achieving the same ?

All of your examples utilize simple, addictive gameplay mechanics that can be enjoyed in a repetitive manner for hours without mental fatigue.  Games like those are the gaming equivalent to comfort food or Marvel movies.  General gaming audiences will buy those games regularly as long as developers do enough to make each iteration seem like a new game.  In comparison, Metroid Prime doesn't have this kind of gameplay.  It's fun and satisfying but a slow paced single player game focused on exploring immersive, detail-rich atmospheric environments while using the same equipment and same moves for each game is not the type of game that can sustain consistent sales on a yearly basis without some other element present.  Average core gamers would have their fill after the first title, leaving only the hardcore Metroid fans to consume the next year's iteration.  That's why I think both 2D and 3D Metroid are one-per-gen titles.  Anything more than that and you're going to get significant diminishing returns.

Either of us can be wrong about what I'm talking about; we'll just have to wait and see when Metroid Prime 4 releases (if that's even what we're arguing about.  I honestly don't really know at this point).  I'm going to bow out after reading your reply though (if you want to reply) because I feel like I'm ruining this thread since this is all off-topic.  Also, I hate being a part of reply chains.



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AngryLittleAlchemist on 18 October 2017
fatslob-:O said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

It's fine XD It's just like, whenever  I read your comments and I see you use "..." or "?!??!?!" so often, I imagine it like you're trying to lead a retard(me) through a conversation with slow dramatization XD

But you're always a respectful, fact based debater, so it's cool!

Yeah I should have read more carefully. 

It's OK man, misunderstandings happen from time to time ... (Even I'm not immune to it LOL) 

That's just my posting style ... 

Yep, my bad : )



fatslob-:O on 18 October 2017
Shaunodon said:

I was actually talking from a neutral standpoint on how I think they'll be received, and most of that lineup looks very stale.

If I was talking from my own personal preference, there's about two titles I would even consider and the rest I wouldn't touch with a 10ft pole.

You wish you were but nearly everyone has biases here including myself that keeps them from being a representative sample of the general consumer ...  

It's not about how well they'll be received by reviewers, in fact most of them shouldn't even be judged by that metric when it should be how many units each of them can sell ... 

Sony's success strategy has always consisted of getting as many of the highest selling titles on their platform like we see with PS1/PS2 days so I have no idea why PS4 would fail to move significant amount of hardware during this holiday in what it appears to be it's peak year and YOU YOURSELF EVEN CONSIDERING two titles from what I listed is a good sign and just shows how much of a broad appeal that platform has ... (It could be anything from sports games to shooters, RPGs, action-adventures, survival/horror or whatever you want to pick out) 



Shaunodon on 18 October 2017
fatslob-:O said:
Shaunodon said:

I was actually talking from a neutral standpoint on how I think they'll be received, and most of that lineup looks very stale.

If I was talking from my own personal preference, there's about two titles I would even consider and the rest I wouldn't touch with a 10ft pole.

You wish you were but nearly everyone has biases here including myself that keeps them from being a representative sample of the general consumer ...  

It's not about how well they'll be received by reviewers, in fact most of them shouldn't even be judged by that metric when it should be how many units each of them can sell ... 

Sony's success strategy has always consisted of getting as many of the highest selling titles on their platform like we see with PS1/PS2 days so I have no idea why PS4 would fail to move significant amount of hardware during this holiday in what it appears to be it's peak year and YOU YOURSELF EVEN CONSIDERING two titles from what I listed is a good sign and just shows how much of a broad appeal that platform has ... (It could be anything from sports games to shooters, RPGs, action-adventures, survival/horror or whatever you want to pick out) 

Again, I never said anything about reviews/reviewers, so I'm not sure why you keep putting these words in my mouth. I'm talking about in the general consumers eye, most of these franchises are either losing their luster or suffering from controversy. GTSport is just a total bomb.

When I said considering two of them, I very much ment 'considering'. It's more likely I'll wait until after holidays and a price drop, seeing as I have about 6 games at least which I know I'll be picking up alongside my Switch bundle. And neither of those two games would push me towards buying a PS4 had I not already owned one, especially since they're available on PC anyway.



fatslob-:O on 18 October 2017
wombat123 said:

My point wasn't even to illustrate that Metroid was in decline. You excusing Metroid's decline from GC to the Wii is nothing more than cherry on top of a cake ...

I see it as looking at patterns and parallels (attach rates) and demographics (the high amount of casual gamers on the Wii). Here's the thing that I think you're not getting from me:  I believe that Metroid Prime 3 had a larger potential audience to sell to than the original Prime game, I've even said as much. I'm not blaming the casual crowd for MP3 not selling fantastically nor do I think that the the Wii's overall demographics negatively affected its sales potential compared to the original Prime game. How could I believe that when I've already stated that I believed the Wii had a larger core userbase than the Gamecube?  I only thing I questioned was when you implied that MP3 had a legit 100m potential audience to sell to when just about everyone knows that's not true.  Because if it were true, then almost all core games on the Wii would have gotten sales boosts similar to what casual friendly games like NSMB and Mario Kart got. That's why I mirrored your statements about Mario Party in the opposite because if the Wii's casual crowd actually did buy core games, then MP3 would have outsold the original Prime game.  Prime 3 would've had to have been a legit bad game to sell at less than a 3% attach rate on an install base of 100m non-casual gamers.

On the other hand, the Switch has a userbase that (so far) has bought core games at a higher rate than we've seen on Nintendo consoles in generations and that bodes well for MP4 (as long as it delivers) and other future core games.  The overall numbers for the Switch are also not as inflated in-terms of potential audience for a core game like MP4.  If the Switch has an install base of 40m, I feel like it's a legit 40m that MP4 could be sold to.  If it were selling on the Wii, I'd think the actual potential audience of that 40m would be 13m while the other 27m would rather buy Wii-branded software and Just Dance.

I don't see Metroid's sales tied entirely to an extremely vocal online minority like I think you do nor do I think that Metroid Prime 4 has a hard sales ceiling.  I see it as variable based on core install base, demand and time between titles to the point where I'd be more inclined to believe that it could sell at an attach rate of around 8-12% on the Switch if it's a legitimately good game.


'Franchise fatigue' is just another excuse. How do sports titles such as FIFA, RPG's such as Pokemon or FPS's such as COD manage to keep up despite all having new releases in less than 2 years compared to their last entries release ? Your entire statement is totally off base. What even prevents Metroid from achieving the same ?

All of your examples utilize simple, addictive gameplay mechanics that can be enjoyed in a repetitive manner for hours without mental fatigue.  Games like those are the gaming equivalent to comfort food or Marvel movies.  General gaming audiences will buy those games regularly as long as developers do enough to make each iteration seem like a new game.  In comparison, Metroid Prime doesn't have this kind of gameplay.  It's fun and satisfying but a slow paced single player game focused on exploring immersive, detail-rich atmospheric environments while using the same equipment and same moves for each game is not the type of game that can sustain consistent sales on a yearly basis without some other element present.  Average core gamers would have their fill after the first title, leaving only the hardcore Metroid fans to consume the next year's iteration.  That's why I think both 2D and 3D Metroid are one-per-gen titles.  Anything more than that and you're going to get significant diminishing returns.

Either of us can be wrong about what I'm talking about; we'll just have to wait and see when Metroid Prime 4 releases (if that's even what we're arguing about.  I honestly don't really know at this point).  I'm going to bow out after reading your reply though (if you even want to reply) because I feel like I'm ruining this thread since this is all off-topic.  Also, I hate reply chains.

I think you don't understand the reason as to how game franchises succeed to grow. It's not about casual vs core ... (heck I don't even think this concept exists and it's just a boogeyman or a scapegoat from the past) 

When Fire Emblem was at death's doorstep, what did Nintendo do to save the series from having it's ever last entry ? They increased the appeal of the game to a bigger audience than the games before it obviously and so that's how future installments remained for the time being ... 

Similarly goes for CoD and Battlefield, they used to be a drop in the bucket but what did Activision or EA do to increase the popularity ? The same as Nintendo did for Fire Emblem by increasng the appeal of the series to the general audience, no ? 

How about CD Projeckt RED going big with the Witcher 3 when not many of the customers experienced the previous games or even Activsion rekindling the fires of a dormant franchise such as Crash Bandicoot ? 

How do you explain Monster Hunter's iterative installments growing on platforms that sold less than where it originated ? 

So many counter examples that I don't want to list out so I could cut it short but just what exactly stops Metroid from achieving the same like the many examples above it when Nintendo had 3 decades to figure it out ? 

Shaunodon said:

Again, I never said anything about reviews/reviewers, so I'm not sure why you keep putting these words in my mouth. I'm talking about in the general consumers eye, most of these franchises are either losing their luster or suffering from controversy. GTSport is just a total bomb.

When I said considering two of them, I very much ment 'considering'. It's more likely I'll wait until after holidays and a price drop, seeing as I have about 6 games at least which I know I'll be picking up alongside my Switch bundle. And neither of those two games would push me towards buying a PS4 had I not already owned one, especially since they're available on PC anyway.

I never tried to put words in your mouth, I was just figuring out what you were implicating ... 

Maybe they are losing their luster but a yearly sports title like FIFA is consistently growing this generation so that could definitely offset some of the loss in selling power of the other titles and there's even potential for other titles to either grow or hold their place even in the face of some of the franchise losing sales ... 

CoD AW didn't sell well but it's next year's entry, CoD Blops 3 nearly doubled. CoD IW receded back to the levels of CoD AW but CoD IW underperforming that year didn't stop PS4 from breaking it's previous record ... 

To paraphrase, Sony is like a smart investor who never hedges a bet on one specific stock or bond (game franchises in this case) so they always have multiple horses in a race to somehow win ... 



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Peach_buggy on 19 October 2017
fatslob-:O said:
Peach_buggy said:

You are gonna tell me that the unavailabilty of neon stocks isn't affecting sales? You can CLEARLY see the Neons' position tumbles once the price goes over MRSP. I've clearly given you proof. You can obviously continue to go around with your eyes closed. Meanwhile, the Switch continues to obliterate all competition with or without stock on Amazon. October is going to be a massacre! As for Europe, it's plain to see that stock was only catching up within the last few WEEKS and now it's becoming scarce again thanks to SMO. As for Joe Public just "popping into Gamestop", have you considered that some people don't have all day to hunt for Switches? Unlike yourself who seems to have the whole day available to look for online arguments. Continue with your denials all you like, come October NPD we'll see who is laughing then!

LOL, playing internet strongman now are we ? The only one's eyes closed are yours since you tirelessly ignore evidence like Trump does ... 

You say obliterate ALL COMPETITION but you just lied again when PS4 has been squashing the Switch so far for this entire calendar year ... (9.1M vs 6.1M units and the only months the Switch ever outsold the PS4 was it's launch month and the month after that which are March and April respectively even though PS4 had NOTHING to fall back on for late Q2/Q3 unlike MK8 and Splatoon 2 carrying the Switch this entire summer it STILL LOST to PS4 in it's slowest months) 

How does it feel to get your facts so wrong ? (And LOL @ 'some people don't have all day to hunt for Switches' or 'Unlike yourself who seems to have the whole day available to look for online arguments'. I only used one site to give me all the data I needed and how about you stop fabricating your arguments ?) 

LOL are you just massaging your own ego or the data? Ps4 sales you are using are from1 Jan 2017 until now. Switch data you are using is from 3 March until early Sept. Also, if you are capable of looking at 1 website, perhaps this will tell you some actual proper information. Just check Amazon. Hourly ,weekly or monthly. Whichever. Also Switch has won 4/6 NPD's and has largely kept pace with the Ps4 even during times of short stock. Instead of pulling facts out of your ass, perhaps you should use REAL facts? I also happen to think Switch is undertracked here but i'm not gonna make any bogus claims here, due to lack of evidence. However i shall be able to, if so, after Nintendo's next Quarterlies.



fatslob-:O on 19 October 2017
Peach_buggy said:

LOL are you just massaging your own ego or the data? Ps4 sales you are using are from1 Jan 2017 until now. Switch data you are using is from 3 March until early Sept. Also, if you are capable of looking at 1 website, perhaps this will tell you some actual proper information. Just check Amazon. Hourly ,weekly or monthly. Whichever. Also Switch has won 4/6 NPD's and has largely kept pace with the Ps4 even during times of short stock. Instead of pulling facts out of your ass, perhaps you should use REAL facts? I also happen to think Switch is undertracked here but i'm not gonna make any bogus claims here, due to lack of evidence. However i shall be able to, if so, after Nintendo's next Quarterlies.

Too bad for you that NPD =/= World LOL ... (Instead being academically dishonest in your failed argument, you're just going to shift goalposts now ?) 

Well even including Switch's launch and excluding PS4's first two months it still didn't change the result ... 

Hint: PS4 still OUTSOLD the Switch so you still fail



Miyamotoo on 20 October 2017
fatslob-:O said:
Peach_buggy said:

Even using 3 of their biggest franchises a year still gives Nintendo over 3 years before they run out of their top IP's. Also, Mario Party has the potential to be a 5+m franchise on a successful console, as does Metroid if Nintendo can create enough hype for it. After 3 years Nintendo can begin to offer sequels to the aforementioned big hitters. Also, there are collaborations, unknowns and new IP's to think of. 

If anyone has the IP's to pull it off, Nintendo has.

That JUST leaves Nintendo with 3 years if they go with that strategy, not OVER ... 

Metroid becoming a flagship is nothing more than your hopes and dreams. Metroid as a franchise is past it's prime when we consider it's popularity peaked during GC with Metroid Prime selling 2.8M units and then decreasing afterwards with the Wii ... 

Even Nintendo has a limit to how many flagships they can have or create ... 
fatslob-:O said:

With Nintendo depleting their potential rather quickly (they already used Zelda, 3D Mario, Splatoon and not to the fullest extent Mario Kart) that leaves them with Pokemon, 2D Mario, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros and those with potential to become flagships includes Tomodachi, Luigi's Mansion along with Donkey Kong ... (Nintendo will have released 4 out of their 11 biggest current franchises for Switch in it's first year!) 

With Monster Hunter and Yokai Watch not being as strong as they were, Nintendo will find themselves at an impasse with the Switch once they used all of their biggest franchises ...

 

Nintendo did release 3D Zelda, MK8D and 3D Mario in first year, but they can easily relase new 3D Zelda, new 3D Mario and new MK game in around 3 years, not to mentione they always releasing several Pokemon games per system (same will be for Switch also, at least 2 Pokemon games), add to that IPs that you mentione and other Nintendo IPs that you didnt mentione, definitely new IPs that potentially can be big (we still dont know whats Retros Games is, probably is new IP), more GC/Wii/WiiU ports/remasters, more 3rd party exclusives...and you will see that Nintendo will not have any problems maintain steady flow of good and strong games every year for Switch. I mean, look how Nintendo managed past successful systems with games and you can get picture, with fact on mind that things with Switch are and will be even more easier because Nintendo will have all resources focuse only fore one platform and not deviaded on two difrent platforms like before.

Metroid Prime is not flagship game and never had great sales, so of course it can be compared to other hevi hitters in terms of sales, but it's definitely game that can brings lots attention and hype of industry and can easily become one of most important Switch title of year, I mean just look back reactions of people when Metroid Prime 4 was announced, it was one of E3 games that was most mentione of all E3 games.



Shaunodon on 25 December 2018
fatslob-:O said:
Peach_buggy said:

Even using 3 of their biggest franchises a year still gives Nintendo over 3 years before they run out of their top IP's. Also, Mario Party has the potential to be a 5+m franchise on a successful console, as does Metroid if Nintendo can create enough hype for it. After 3 years Nintendo can begin to offer sequels to the aforementioned big hitters. Also, there are collaborations, unknowns and new IP's to think of. 

If anyone has the IP's to pull it off, Nintendo has.

That JUST leaves Nintendo with 3 years if they go with that strategy, not OVER ... 

Mario Party stopped being important, the last time the franchise ever broke 5M+ units was on Wii/DS in which the games were released nearly a deacde ago ... 

Metroid becoming a flagship is nothing more than your hopes and dreams. Metroid as a franchise is past it's prime when we consider it's popularity peaked during GC with Metroid Prime selling 2.8M units and then decreasing afterwards with the Wii ... 

Even Nintendo has a limit to how many flagships they can have or create ... 

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2018-11-01-super-mario-party-sells-1-5m-units-in-release-month

"Super Mario Party has sold over 1.5 million units since launching in early October, Nintendo revealed this week.

Released worldwide on October 5, Super Mario Party reportedly had "an extremely strong start compared to other instalments in the series".

High sales of the game are also driving an increase in Joy-Con sell-through, and Nintendo says the accessibility of the game also has potential to drive hardware sales."


https://www.dualshockers.com/super-mario-party-1-million-sold/

"During Nintendo’s stellar Thanksgiving holidays they also sold 1 million copies of Super Mario Party for the Nintendo Switch in the United States, making it the fastest selling Mario Party game in the franchise.

This news come on top of the report that the Nintendo Switch just had its best-selling week in the United States ever, growing 115% compared to this same period last year."



VAMatt on 25 December 2018

 

Shaunodon said:
fatslob-:O said: 

Mario Party stopped being important, the last time the franchise ever broke 5M+ units was on Wii/DS in which the games were released nearly a deacde ago ... 

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2018-11-01-super-mario-party-sells-1-5m-units-in-release-month

"Super Mario Party has sold over 1.5 million units since launching in early October, Nintendo revealed this week.

Released worldwide on October 5, Super Mario Party reportedly had "an extremely strong start compared to other instalments in the series".

High sales of the game are also driving an increase in Joy-Con sell-through, and Nintendo says the accessibility of the game also has potential to drive hardware sales."

Interesting anecdote that ties in here...

I just picked up Mario Party as insurance for the family Christmas gathering.  If the kids seem bored, I'll break out the Switch and Mario Party.  But, in order for the family to play, I needed to pick up another set if joycons.  Looks like I did exactly as Ninty wanted.

With that said, they better hope the family party is boring, otherwise I'll be returning the game and joycons later this week.