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wombat123 on 18 October 2017
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fatslob-:O said:
wombat123 said:

You're the one that pointed out the Wii's 100m userbase as a means to make Metroid Prime 3's numbers look worse and hammer your argument that the Metroid series is in decline.  I was just saying that it isn't as cut and dry as you tried to make it sound by pointing out how other Nintendo core franchises did on the Wii compared to the Gamecube.  You were using the total Wii numbers to pad your argument when you knew that almost 2/3 of that 100m didn't give a crap about most of Nintendo's core franchises.

My point wasn't even to illustrate that Metroid was in decline. You excusing Metroid's decline from GC to the Wii is nothing more than cherry on top of a cake ... 

wombat123 said:

The easier explaination to me as to why Prime 2 and 3  didn't reach the same numbers as the original is due to franchise fatigue.  In a five year span, Nintendo pushed out three Metroid Prime games.  I personally like Metroid Prime  but I don't like Metroid Prime that much.  By the time MP3 came out, I was ready for a 4-5 year break from the series and I'm guessing more fans burnt out earlier.  The Metroid Prime series overall isn't the kind that can have sequels in such a short amount of time and stave off franchise fatigue; it doesn't have an ongoing narrative that's engaging enough to keep people hooked like with the Mass Effect Trilogy, it doesn't have a casual pick up and play nature of a 2D sidescroller like NSMB nor does it feature multiplayer gameplay that somehow gets people addicted to it like with CoD.  For a series like Metroid Prime, it needs 4-5 years between sequels to get people recharged and hungry for another round.  And it's not just Metroid Prime; look at something like Mario Galaxy 2.  It was just as good as the original but sold 4m less because it was released only 2 1/2 years after Galaxy 1.  Four million people already had their fill of 3D Mario and needed time to recharge -- and I think it was same deal with Metroid Prime 2 & 3: Nintendo didn't give fans enough time to recharge.  They're overcharged now, which is why I expect MP4 to sell better than the original as long as it's a great game.

'Franchise fatigue' is just another excuse. How do sports titles such as FIFA, RPG's such as Pokemon or FPS's such as COD manage to keep up despite all having new releases in less than 2 years compared to their last entries release ? Your entire statement is totally off base. What even prevents Metroid from achieving the same ? 

wombat123 said:

I'll even repeat what you said with your Mario Party argument later as another argument for MP4 chances of success: the reason Metroid Prime 3 didn't sell as well as the original is because the demographics of the Wii didn't allow it to and that's the reason why MP4 will sell well: because the Switch's demographics or games so far encourages more of these core types games.

As for Mario Party, I'll admit that I was focusing on 3DS numbers and didn't even think of any other platforms.  My main argument though was that I believed that the Switch's form factor would allow a Mario Party game to flourish.  I don't think it's going to sell 10m but I believe it'll outsell the 3DS versions.

Demographics aren't the reason for MP3's decline, it's a reason for MP8's success though ... (How did demographics not affect Zelda, Smash Bros and Animal Crossing in a megative manner ?) 


My point wasn't even to illustrate that Metroid was in decline. You excusing Metroid's decline from GC to the Wii is nothing more than cherry on top of a cake ...

I see it as looking at patterns and parallels (attach rates) and demographics (the high amount of casual gamers on the Wii). Here's the thing that I think you're not getting from me:  I believe that Metroid Prime 3 had a larger potential audience to sell to than the original Prime game, I've even said as much. I'm not blaming the casual crowd for MP3 not selling fantastically nor do I think that the the Wii's overall demographics negatively affected its sales potential compared to the original Prime game. How could I believe that when I've already stated that I believed the Wii had a larger core userbase than the Gamecube?  I only thing I questioned was when you implied that MP3 had a legit 100m potential audience to sell to when just about everyone knows that's not true.  Because if it were true, then almost all core games on the Wii would have gotten sales boosts similar to what casual friendly games like NSMB and Mario Kart got. That's why I mirrored your statements about Mario Party in the opposite because if the Wii's casual crowd actually did buy core games, then MP3 would have outsold the original Prime game.  Prime 3 would've had to have been a legit bad game to sell at less than a 3% attach rate on an install base of 100m non-casual gamers.

On the other hand, the Switch has a userbase that (so far) has bought core games at a higher rate than we've seen on Nintendo consoles in generations and that bodes well for MP4 (as long as it delivers) and other future core games.  The overall numbers for the Switch are also not as inflated in-terms of potential audience for a core game like MP4.  If the Switch has an install base of 40m, I feel like it's a legit 40m that MP4 could be sold to.  If it were selling on the Wii, I'd think the actual potential audience of that 40m would be 13m while the other 27m would rather buy Wii-branded software and Just Dance.

I don't see Metroid's sales tied entirely to an extremely vocal online minority like I think you do nor do I think that Metroid Prime 4 has a hard sales ceiling.  I see it as variable based on core install base, demand and time between titles to the point where I'd be more inclined to believe that it could sell at an attach rate of around 8-12% on the Switch if it's a legitimately good game.


'Franchise fatigue' is just another excuse. How do sports titles such as FIFA, RPG's such as Pokemon or FPS's such as COD manage to keep up despite all having new releases in less than 2 years compared to their last entries release ? Your entire statement is totally off base. What even prevents Metroid from achieving the same ?

All of your examples utilize simple, addictive gameplay mechanics that can be enjoyed in a repetitive manner for hours without mental fatigue.  Games like those are the gaming equivalent to comfort food or Marvel movies.  General gaming audiences will buy those games regularly as long as developers do enough to make each iteration seem like a new game.  In comparison, Metroid Prime doesn't have this kind of gameplay.  It's fun and satisfying but a slow paced single player game focused on exploring immersive, detail-rich atmospheric environments while using the same equipment and same moves for each game is not the type of game that can sustain consistent sales on a yearly basis without some other element present.  Average core gamers would have their fill after the first title, leaving only the hardcore Metroid fans to consume the next year's iteration.  That's why I think both 2D and 3D Metroid are one-per-gen titles.  Anything more than that and you're going to get significant diminishing returns.

Either of us can be wrong about what I'm talking about; we'll just have to wait and see when Metroid Prime 4 releases (if that's even what we're arguing about.  I honestly don't really know at this point).  I'm going to bow out after reading your reply though (if you want to reply) because I feel like I'm ruining this thread since this is all off-topic.  Also, I hate being a part of reply chains.