I doubt they want a pricecut if they expect PS4 to be down YOY, expecially if PS4 is probabily doing better than they expect.  Of course we will see some promotions from retailers, but that's another story.

I wasn't talking about demand. I'm just talking about Nintendo's ability to actually produce that many consoles. Given their Media Create and NPD sales, and the fact that they only shipped 1.96 million in Q1, I think 12 million is more on the high end of what they can really produce, especially with the rumored parts shortage in effect.

Nah, you are underestimating Nintendo. 12 million will be very easy, they will probabily ship something like 13-15 million this FY.

To me, 12 million actually really looks like a very small increase compared to the first forecast. I mean, we are talking about a mere 20% increase, which is not that much all things considering... 

5 hours since last update.

HARDWARE:
#05 NS Grey (same)
#15 SNES Classic (up 1)
#17 NS Mario (up 1)
#26 NS Neon (down 3)
#32 PS4 Fool's Edition (up 1)
#52 XB1 (up 5)
#59 PS4 Pro (up 5)
#60 PS4 COD (up 10)*

SOFTWARE (Pre-orders Only)**:
#01 NS Super Mario Odyssey (same)
#08 NS Fire Emblem Warriors (same)

Does not affect this month: *
Software outside of the month only gets added if it's in the top 20: **

PS4: 3 in the top 100 / 1 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5
XB1: 1 in the top 100 / 0 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5
NIS:  3 in the top 100 / 3 in the top 50 / 2 in the top 20 / 1 in the top 10 / 1 in the top 5

For Nintendo to ship 14M this fiscal year, they would need to ship around 7M in the holiday quarter, and I really don't see that happening.

Their overall shipments would have to be something like this:
FY3/2018 NS:
Q1: 1.96M
Q2: 2.40M
Q3: 7.00M
Q4: 2.70M

But Nintendo only managed to ship 6.96 million Wii units in its first-year holiday quarter, and that was when they were shipping over 3 million in the non-holiday quarters.

FY3/2008 Wii:
Q1: 3.43M
Q2: 3.90M
Q3: 6.96M
Q4: 4.32M

I mean, it might be possible if Nintendo really was creating artificial scarcity and they actually stockpiled enough units for normal holiday demand, but I'm not counting on it.

I noticed that Mario Odyssey finally passed one of those Playstation store gift cards on the 2017 best sellers list and is rank #9 now.

Q1 ended before the first out of 3 production increases announced for this year was taking effect. With Inreases 1&2 having been in Juli and late September, we will see in 10 days how much they actually improved the situation in terms of shipments. And seeing how well they are doing here on Amazon US right now, still before increase number 3, I'm pretty sure 12M is lowest end of what they can do.

Q2 and Q4 are too low on your prevision, hence why you have to overcompensate by giving Q3 a whooping 7M. You can take a million away from there and distribute it between the other two quarters and it will be much closer to what can be achieved.

What is your source for there being three separate production increases? All Nintendo has confirmed is the one in July. Periods of increased shipments aren't the same thing as production increases, because all console manufacturers hold back a certain amount of stock for the holiday quarter. It doesn't make financial sense to increase production capacity just for the holidays, because then that capacity goes unused for the rest of the year.

You have a point, but you also must remember we are talking about a 2007 VS 2017 comparation.

Back in the days, holidays were not as big as today, today holiday season has a bigger percent of total year sales. It make sense to me that Nintendo want to increase a lot the production during the last quarter of 2017 (aka Q3).

So yes, i think Switch has a good chance of shipping more than what Wii did in Q4 2007 (Q4 as Oct-Dec, i personally don't like to call Oct-Dec Q3, so i use solar year), and i think 7 million looks reasonable, or very close to that, like 6-6.5 million.

I actually believe Switch won't do as much as the Wii did in USA, where it sold 2.85 million in Oct/Nov/Dec NPD, but will be very close to that (i actually expect something like 400k in Oct, 1m in Nov and 1m in Dec, so 2.4m total), but in Japan is pretty obvius it will do A LOT more (Wii sold 980k in Japan, Switch has a good chance to sell double of that), and Europe too i think is gonna be close.

So for last quarter of 2017 6-8m looks likely in my opinion, maybe closer to 6 million than 8 million but i can see the Switch shipping 13/14 million in 2017, and 16/17 million by the end of March 2017, which would be 3.3-4.3 million more than the original 12.7 million forecast.