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Ryng on 19 October 2017
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StarDoor said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Nah, you are underestimating Nintendo. 12 million will be very easy, they will probabily ship something like 13-15 million this FY.

To me, 12 million actually really looks like a very small increase compared to the first forecast. I mean, we are talking about a mere 20% increase, which is not that much all things considering... 

For Nintendo to ship 14M this fiscal year, they would need to ship around 7M in the holiday quarter, and I really don't see that happening.

Their overall shipments would have to be something like this:
FY3/2018 NS:
Q1: 1.96M
Q2: 2.40M
Q3: 7.00M
Q4: 2.70M

But Nintendo only managed to ship 6.96 million Wii units in its first-year holiday quarter, and that was when they were shipping over 3 million in the non-holiday quarters.

FY3/2008 Wii:
Q1: 3.43M
Q2: 3.90M
Q3: 6.96M
Q4: 4.32M

I mean, it might be possible if Nintendo really was creating artificial scarcity and they actually stockpiled enough units for normal holiday demand, but I'm not counting on it.

You have a point, but you also must remember we are talking about a 2007 VS 2017 comparation.

Back in the days, holidays were not as big as today, today holiday season has a bigger percent of total year sales. It make sense to me that Nintendo want to increase a lot the production during the last quarter of 2017 (aka Q3).

So yes, i think Switch has a good chance of shipping more than what Wii did in Q4 2007 (Q4 as Oct-Dec, i personally don't like to call Oct-Dec Q3, so i use solar year), and i think 7 million looks reasonable, or very close to that, like 6-6.5 million.

 

I actually believe Switch won't do as much as the Wii did in USA, where it sold 2.85 million in Oct/Nov/Dec NPD, but will be very close to that (i actually expect something like 400k in Oct, 1m in Nov and 1m in Dec, so 2.4m total), but in Japan is pretty obvius it will do A LOT more (Wii sold 980k in Japan, Switch has a good chance to sell double of that), and Europe too i think is gonna be close.

So for last quarter of 2017 6-8m looks likely in my opinion, maybe closer to 6 million than 8 million but i can see the Switch shipping 13/14 million in 2017, and 16/17 million by the end of March 2017, which would be 3.3-4.3 million more than the original 12.7 million forecast.