Have you ever been wrong on this?

If I recall correctly, you're 4 for 4 so far.

I have a good record on this, yes, but that's because I tend to wait until there's reasonable 'proof' (for want of a better word). I honestly think I'm seeing a motive to do it and a clue there going to do it. Again though, Sony will have a target and they'll only do it if they believe that target won't be reached. Looking at the Switch and the X1X (not so much), I believe there's the motive. And the clue is just the fact they've announced new versions. I think Switch will give them the motive to make a move. 

Switch still flopping on the front page tho, worse than Xbox One X

Sounds about right.

4 hours since last update.

HARDWARE:
#06 NS Grey (down 1)
#16 SNES Classic (down 1)
#17 NS Mario (same)
#23 NS Neon (up 3)
#34 PS4 Fool's Edition (down 2)
#54 XB1 (down 2)
#58 PS4 COD (up 2)*
#59 PS4 Pro (same)

SOFTWARE (Pre-orders Only)**:
#01 NS Super Mario Odyssey (same)

Does not affect this month: *
Software outside of the month only gets added if it's in the top 20: **

PS4: 3 in the top 100 / 1 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5
XB1: 1 in the top 100 / 0 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5
NIS:  3 in the top 100 / 3 in the top 50 / 2 in the top 20 / 1 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5

It takes incredible sales to beat the PSN cards for this long and the NS is absolutely destroying the opposition at the moment. This is going to be one of the, if not the, biggest margins of victory for Nintendo since the NS launched. The question is, with the PS4 sitting at a decent position, will those NS sales eat into Sony's PS4 targets? In my opinion, this will decide whether Sony cuts the price sooner rather than later, but I believe it will still drop the price later this year regardless. For me, it's a momentum versus profit scenario. No doubt Sony would likely keep the price as it is and receive the financial benefits of the revised PS4Pro/PSVR/MOVE(maybe PS4) if momentum can be sustained or take their usual bottom line and drop the price if momentum can't be sustained. If the momentum CAN be sustained then expect a drop around Christmas, if it can't then expect to see a price drop before, although bundling extra games in would probably be an alternative until their 'planned' pricedrop.

Switch is killing it. I was a naysayer when some of the Nintendo faithful and others said it could hit Wii like numbers. If it keeps up like this I'll be happy to be proven wrong. With a potential ps4 price cut, Xbox one X and the switch doing beast mode numbers it'll be an intriguing holiday season.

SMO yearly chart

US = 9(top 1 software for sure)
UK = 11(top 3 software at the end)
FR = 5(top 1 software for sure)
CA = 6(top 1 software again)
DE = 22(top 3 software at the end)

I can see it performs half of Sun/Moon in 2017
S/M 2016 = 14.69 Million Units
SMO = 7 - 8 Million Units but it will overtake S/M at the end because of Mario's legs 

The real question is: 

Could the Switch beat the PS4 lifetime?

I don't see it happening, PS4 is just an absolute beast. 

9 hours since last update.

HARDWARE:
#06 NS Grey (same)
#16 SNES Classic (same)
#17 NS Mario (same)
#20 NS Neon (up 3)
#35 PS4 Fool's Edition (down 1)
#54 XB1 (same)
#56 PS4 COD (up 2)*
#59 PS4 Pro (same)
#100 N2DSXL (re-entry)

SOFTWARE (Pre-orders Only)**:
#01 NS Super Mario Odyssey (same)
#18 3DS Pokemon Ultra Sun (new)

Does not affect this month: *
Software outside of the month only gets added if it's in the top 20: **

PS4: 3 in the top 100 / 1 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5
XB1: 1 in the top 100 / 0 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5
NIS: 3 in the top 100 / 3 in the top 50 / 3 in the top 20 / 1 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5