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StarDoor on 19 October 2017
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Ryng_Tolu said:
StarDoor said:

I wasn't talking about demand. I'm just talking about Nintendo's ability to actually produce that many consoles. Given their Media Create and NPD sales, and the fact that they only shipped 1.96 million in Q1, I think 12 million is more on the high end of what they can really produce, especially with the rumored parts shortage in effect.

Nah, you are underestimating Nintendo. 12 million will be very easy, they will probabily ship something like 13-15 million this FY.

To me, 12 million actually really looks like a very small increase compared to the first forecast. I mean, we are talking about a mere 20% increase, which is not that much all things considering... 

For Nintendo to ship 14M this fiscal year, they would need to ship around 7M in the holiday quarter, and I really don't see that happening.

Their overall shipments would have to be something like this:
FY3/2018 NS:
Q1: 1.96M
Q2: 2.40M
Q3: 7.00M
Q4: 2.70M

But Nintendo only managed to ship 6.96 million Wii units in its first-year holiday quarter, and that was when they were shipping over 3 million in the non-holiday quarters.

FY3/2008 Wii:
Q1: 3.43M
Q2: 3.90M
Q3: 6.96M
Q4: 4.32M

I mean, it might be possible if Nintendo really was creating artificial scarcity and they actually stockpiled enough units for normal holiday demand, but I'm not counting on it.