Amazon U.S. October bestsellers and general Amazon-based discussion

[Bofferbrauer2]

StarDoor said:

Ryng_Tolu said:

Nah, you are underestimating Nintendo. 12 million will be very easy, they will probabily ship something like 13-15 million this FY.

To me, 12 million actually really looks like a very small increase compared to the first forecast. I mean, we are talking about a mere 20% increase, which is not that much all things considering... 

For Nintendo to ship 14M this fiscal year, they would need to ship around 7M in the holiday quarter, and I really don't see that happening.

Their overall shipments would have to be something like this:
FY3/2018 NS:
Q1: 1.96M
Q2: 2.40M
Q3: 7.00M
Q4: 2.70M

But Nintendo only managed to ship 6.96 million Wii units in its first-year holiday quarter, and that was when they were shipping over 3 million in the non-holiday quarters.

FY3/2008 Wii:
Q1: 3.43M
Q2: 3.90M
Q3: 6.96M
Q4: 4.32M

I mean, it might be possible if Nintendo really was creating artificial scarcity and they actually stockpiled enough units for normal holiday demand, but I'm not counting on it.

Q2 and Q4 are too low on your prevision, hence why you have to overcompensate by giving Q3 a whooping 7M. You can take a million away from there and distribute it between the other two quarters and it will be much closer to what can be achieved.