I expect Wii/NDS/3DS sales when it comes to Switch first party software sales, so definitely. Sure Mario Kart 8 managed to sell like 8 million on the only 13 million install base of the Wii U. While 2D Mario has been much more popular, their isn't a 2D Mario game on Switch yet which I think could influence sales to be much higher than past 3D mario games.

3D Mario:

1. Super Mario 64 - 17.28m
2. Super Mario Galaxy - 11.36m
3. Super Mario 3D Land - 10.93m
4. Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 7.55m
5. Super Mario Sunshine - 6.31m
http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=super+mario

Super Mario Odyssey will be the best Mario in years and Switch doing very well, so 12-15 mln is very likely.

I think it's possible given how well the Switch is selling, Odyssey releasing pretty early, so lot's of time for legs, and the general hype for Odyssey. I would say 12-13 million though, but 15 million isn't out of the question.

I think the 12-15 million range is a good bet for Odyssey. I mean, Breath of the Wild across Switch and Wii U was at 5 million after three months on the market. It took Twilight Princess (Wii + GC) around a year to reach that milestone, even with Wii's higher rate of sales compared to Switch. Breath of the Wild, realistically, should be the first Zelda game to hit 10 million lifetime.

Given Galaxy 1 shifted nearly 13 million after coming out during Wii's first Christmas season, there's a very good chance that the Switch factor plus the huge step up in the technology (the larger scale sandbox/'open world' factor) for 3D Mario could prove a real boost, taking Odyssey beyond the 11 million milestone that 3D Land hit and possibly even beyond the 13 million mark that Galaxy hit. Odyssey is also the only Switch title to generate more online interest than Zelda, judging by Youtube views, where Odyssey trailers have millions more views than Zelda. Both Zelda trailers have around 12 million views, whereas the Odyssey trailers are at 17 million and 26 million, respectively, for example. It's going to be really interesting, certainly, but 15 million isn't an outlandish guess. A lot of people are under-estimating Mario's selling power, and forgetting that main Mario games sell more strongly than Zelda.

Breath of the Wild is already heading towards potentially record sales success for Zelda - Odyssey isn't going to do that (given the sales highs of 2D Mario games) for Mario, but I think the 12-15 million range is likely.

Odyssey is the game that's making me pick up the Switch, I can confirm that much at least!

I reckon between release and Xmas it's gonna have basically a 1-1 attach rate for the switch. It will have outsold Zelda already just after Xmas and lifetime sales will be around the 15 million mark give or take a few hundred thousand either way. I've not played a mainline Mario game since Mario 64 so colour me ecstatic.

Nice one. :D

3D Mario games always sell better than 3D Zelda games (they have wider appealing on market), and like other people already mentioned, Zelda BotW is just 6-7 months on market and its still selling well, and it will probably hit around 10m at end.

For this 15m LT prediction, I will just stick to 10m+ for now. :)

Galaxy 1 sales. if the kill it with another Mario game.

15 mil only if it will be the only 3D Mario on Switch and they support it with DLC and push life into it until end of 2018.

Only 15 million? This isn't nearly as bold as most of your predictions.

However, 15M is still a lot, 12-14 million is more likely.

No it won't. Too much for a 3d Mario.