I don't think that the comparison with the Wii/super mario galaxy should be made. Like more than half of the wii userbase played 2 games of wii tennis and never turned the system on again. Switch looks to have an audience of gamers rather than casuals this time around, and the attach rate will certainly be higher because of this.

Well, I think it will end up between 11-13m, but I won't be surprised if it hit 15m.

Wait what? Botw has no nore shipments haha

I reckon around 10million. If its gets above that then its a phenomenal succuess imo. Hopefully BoTW and SMO both break that 10million barrier would be sweet. I reckon ita gonna sell around around 5 million this holiday alone (smo)

What you said didn't make any sense. Emphasizing budget doesn't help with that.

Firstly I'm not aware of Nintendo ever mentioning BoTWs budget. It is probably safe to assume that it was substantial, seeing that at one piont as many as 300 people have worked on it, but a games budget and it's sales so not scale linearly. Heck, sometimes they don't scale at all, look no further than minecraft for that.

Secondly since you don't have concrete numbers for BoTWs or SMOs budgets you can't even compare them, let alone make deductions based on them.

Thirdly you don't know how well BoTW will end up selling other than 'well'. So far it is on track to be one of the bestselling Zelda games of all time without even having it's first holyday under it's belt, but we simply don't know for sure where it will end up.

Fourthly you're choosing to completely ignore historical evidence of Mario always, always selling better than Zelda, because of broader appeal and bigger market reconition. That isn't suddenly going to change.

You happen to think that BoTW has a bigger budget than SMO, you happen to think that budgets scale linearly, you happen to think that BoTW won't do 15m LT and you happen to think that SMO will do worse based on those three assumptions. That is a lot of assumptions and very little reasoning based in history or facts. I agree that BoTW probably wont do 15m LT, early sales data doesn't indicate THAT level of success, but that says next to nothing about SMOs performance.

Now, OT: Ehhhhhh, hard to say. It's not impossible and I do think it will do around 12m lifetime, but 15 is quite a stretch.

maybe, depends on how many Switches are sold and if they make another Mario game.

I think it can if the Switch keeps being as successful as now.