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Forums - Nintendo - Nintendo: We never expected the Switch to sell this much

Soundwave said:

Pro-Tip To Nintendo: Next time, try choosing 2-3 NAND flash vendors instead of thinking you're going to be given equal priority to fucking Apple. 

Every smartphone, tablet in the world has NAND flash and they all manage without running into such headaches. 

They ARE using multiple NAND flash vendors (at least Toshiba and Samsung confirmed), and apparently did so from the very beginning.

In fact, they even placed the flash memory chip on a separate storage board that only contains the flash memory chip, probably to make it easy to use different flash memory chips:



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VAMatt said:
What they mean is, shipping them quickly is too expensive, not too hard.

They want to use large-quantity surface shipping methods only. So, that mean load container at port in China (or wherever they're made), truck/train transport container to shipyard, load on ship, boat takes a few days to a couple of weeks to reach destination, container is unloaded from ship onto truck, which takes it to distribution center, which sends cases out to retailers. In some cases, there may be one more step in there before retail. There may also be a day or two train ride, depending on the location of the manufacturer and/or distributer, relative to the port. That sounds like about 3-5 weeks from the time they leave the factory to the time they are on store shelves, depending on the location.

If they really wanted to get them on shelves quickly, they could ship case loads from China to the retailers. But, that would probably cost them $35 or so per unit, maybe even more. With their aversion to losing money on consoles, I can understand why they don't want to do that. But, lets be honest. Its not that they can't get them on shelves quickly, just that they're not willing to pay for it.

If you add that month or so to the month or so it probably takes to ramp up production, and another month or so for parts manufacturers to ramp up production before then, you're looking at 3ish months from the time they decide to increase production to the time those units are on shelves. Even if I'm wrong, and it really takes twice that long, the shortage should end very soon. If it doesn't, we'll know they're full of shit about trying to meet demand.

Well, they said before they ship more in August and September. So we are in a phase of increasing shipments. If your calculations right (and it looks fine for me), this means they decided that back in May. At that point it probably was clear enough that this shortage was not only through initial demand but by momentum. They probably already decided on another increase in production for the holidays. But will this all be enough? I expect a better situation not before next year.



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darkrulier said:
If that's true, how come the Switch is so scarce in Japan? I mean, they don't have to ship out units anywhere for their local market and yet we are seeing super crazy long lines at retail stores and even a lottery to buy the system in Japan. I think they are still holding on units for the holiday season.

Yeah, they seem not determined enough to reroute units meant for europe and the US.Maybe they differ technically a bit, because of different regulations. But I assume the technical changes are small, after we are behind PAL vs. NTSC and all have HDMI.



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OdinHades said:
Shortages? What shortages?

If you want a Switch but can't find one right now, just import it from germany. We have plenty! =D

As far as I know the units shipped to here get sold through. So shipments are meeting demand, but it's not like we have an overabundance in stock. Missing supply in Japan is not in the hundreds or even thousands we in europe may be able to cough up, but in the tens of thousands each week. I'm not sure how the situation is in the US.



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gcwy said:
They must have utterly pathetic expectations for it, then.

Utterly pathetic? The sold numbers (what they actually shipped) are far from utterly pathetic.



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ArnoldRimmer said:
Soundwave said:

Pro-Tip To Nintendo: Next time, try choosing 2-3 NAND flash vendors instead of thinking you're going to be given equal priority to fucking Apple. 

Every smartphone, tablet in the world has NAND flash and they all manage without running into such headaches. 

They ARE using multiple NAND flash vendors (at least Toshiba and Samsung confirmed), and apparently did so from the very beginning.

In fact, they even placed the flash memory chip on a separate storage board that only contains the flash memory chip, probably to make it easy to use different flash memory chips:

In that case they might be stoking artificial shortages to some degree. 

NAND flash is not some magically rare component,  it's in literally billions of devices, Nintendo's orders of 20 million year even are nothing in the grand scheme of production for such parts. 

There were almost 1.5 billion (B as in billion) smartphones shipped last year, virtually all of them have NAND flash. 



Soundwave said:

In that case they might be stoking artificial shortages to some degree. 

NAND flash is not some magically rare component,  it's in literally billions of devices, Nintendo's orders of 20 million year even are nothing in the grand scheme of production for such parts. 

There were almost 1.5 billion (B as in billion) smartphones shipped last year, virtually all of them have NAND flash. 

Exactly. A few million flash memory chips are nothing, that's just a welcome (but ultimately: lousy) excuse for not shipping more units.

This is what the "shortage" situation probably is really about:

Nintendo isn't shipping as many units as they could, if they really wanted, they could very well produce/ship more units. But that might have increased production/shipment costs a little, and Nintendo wasn't willing to do that, believing that such a step would hurt them in more than one way:

- higher production costs = smaller profit

- a little scarcity isn't so bad either, being easily available everywhere after just a short time might suggest to customers that the product isn't so hot after all, and that there's no hurry to instantly buy the product

So Nintendo talks about certain components being scarce, but doesn't mention that this is just a half-truth. And come holiday season, these shortages will suddenly mostly be resolved, what a lucky coincidence...



ArnoldRimmer said:
Soundwave said:

In that case they might be stoking artificial shortages to some degree. 

NAND flash is not some magically rare component,  it's in literally billions of devices, Nintendo's orders of 20 million year even are nothing in the grand scheme of production for such parts. 

There were almost 1.5 billion (B as in billion) smartphones shipped last year, virtually all of them have NAND flash. 

Exactly. A few million flash memory chips are nothing, that's just a welcome (but ultimately: lousy) excuse for not shipping more units.

This is what the "shortage" situation probably is really about:

Nintendo isn't shipping as many units as they could, if they really wanted, they could very well produce/ship more units. But that might have increased production/shipment costs a little, and Nintendo wasn't willing to do that, believing that such a step would hurt them in more than one way:

- higher production costs = smaller profit

- a little scarcity isn't so bad either, being easily available everywhere after just a short time might suggest to customers that the product isn't so hot after all, and that there's no hurry to instantly buy the product

So Nintendo talks about certain components being scarce, but doesn't mention that this is just a half-truth. And come holiday season, these shortages will suddenly mostly be resolved, what a lucky coincidence...

Well, playing devil advocate, what company wants to sell their product at a loss?Especially when said product is doing extremely well?Nintendo could ship more units through planes, like they did back in march, but that would skyrocket the price of each unit, and they would have to either pass on the cost to the final rpice or lose money.And none of them is really a situation a company wants to be in.A steady growth in shipments with a feasible and financially sound decision(in the sense that it keeps the profit margins or at the very least doesnt make them bleed money) is the best and probably the only decision any company would take.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Miyamotoo said:
OdinHades said:
Shortages? What shortages?



If you want a Switch but can't find one right now, just import it from germany. We have plenty! =D

No thanks, cheapest one is 325 euros, and you have shipping costs also if you are not from Germany.

And yet I've never actually seen one in store since it launched. Yes they seem to be pretty readily available online, but there still doesn't seem to be enough stock to keep them in stores. That certainly has an effect on impulse buyers and family shoppers. Especially since holyday season is coming up.

I saw a family eye the display units at a saturn the other day (with no boxed units in sight) and wondering what even the price was. Their kid REALLY wanted one though, so I told them the price and that you can usually find them on amazon. They were happy with that, but who knows if they're still going to buy it, they probably would have if they had been in stock.



Soundwave said:
ArnoldRimmer said:

They ARE using multiple NAND flash vendors (at least Toshiba and Samsung confirmed), and apparently did so from the very beginning.

In fact, they even placed the flash memory chip on a separate storage board that only contains the flash memory chip, probably to make it easy to use different flash memory chips:

In that case they might be stoking artificial shortages to some degree. 

NAND flash is not some magically rare component,  it's in literally billions of devices, Nintendo's orders of 20 million year even are nothing in the grand scheme of production for such parts. 

There were almost 1.5 billion (B as in billion) smartphones shipped last year, virtually all of them have NAND flash. 

Its not so easy, we had infos that are shortages of NAND memory on market, its not same thing that Nintendo made up, we have those infos way before this article, and that big companies like Apple of course are being prioritizing.

http://searchsolidstatestorage.techtarget.com/opinion/Why-the-NAND-flash-shortage-exists-and-what-to-do-about-it

https://www.kitguru.net/components/matthew-wilson/dram-and-nand-supply-shortage-expected-to-last-until-2018/

https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/news/taking-apart-the-global-nand-memory-shortage/

http://www.semiconductorstore.com/blog/2017/Huge-Demand-of-NAND-and-SSD-Creates-Worldwide-Shortage/2388

https://9to5mac.com/2017/06/21/iphone-8-ram-flash-storage-chips/

http://www.idownloadblog.com/2017/07/06/iphone-8-3d-nand-flash-chip-shortages/