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Forums - Microsoft - Will Xbox One pass 50 million?

 

Will it?

Yes it will 309 44.46%
 
No it won't 386 55.54%
 
Total:695
S.T.A.G.E. on 15 July 2017
curl-6 said:
So after 569 votes, 55% say that no, it will not reach 50 million.
Poor Xbone. :'(

Someone needs to tell Microsoft to get better at making games. If they keep relying on the same gameplan they will always lose to Sony in he worst way.



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Dyllyo on 15 July 2017

Sales keep declining. And there are no games, outside of Crackdown, coming out this year.

I mean, it's been 3 3/4 years (approximately half way through 9th gen) and it's only sold 30 million. I can't imagine it suddenly selling 20 million more, unless some crazy awesome games suddenly start coming out.

And, for the record, as cheesy as it looked, I was actually excited for Scalebound. Too bad Xbox can't seem to make anything outside of Halo and Forza :



Mandalore76 on 17 July 2017
torok said:
Mandalore76 said:

I also recall a lot of people here over optimistically forecasting that PS3 would easily sell over 100 million and pass Wii to finish as the 7th gen leader when all was said and done.  This was being said here as late as 2013 when PS4 was already on the market.  4 years later, the PS3 fell about 15 million short of those predictions.  Don't take this as me saying the PS4 won't sell 100 million.  I'm just pointing out that under-estimating and over-estimating work both ways. 

Personally, no I don't think the XBox One will sell 50 million.  It's sales have peaked already, so it's all downhill from here on out.  The people who multiply years at a time by forecasting 6 million a year for the next 4 years, that's not how it works.  That's the same kind of logic as the people who, in 2013 when PS3 was 26 million behind Wii, were forecasting 6 million PS3 sales per year over the next 4 years will close that gap.  Sales don't stay fixed like that in the back nine of the average consoles lifespan. Look at the 2nd half of the PS3's lifespan for example: 2011 (14.7 mil),  2012 (12.1 mil), 2013 (8.2 mil), 2014 (3.5 mil).  The first full year the PS4 was on sale, the PS3 lost over half it's sales from the year before, and was down 3/4 from where it was the year before PS4 launched. 

For the XBox One to do 60 million as you anticipate, I think it would have to show a year on year increase in sales this year, which I don't see happening.  It's sales had already plateaued when it was just contending with PS4 and Wii U.  With the Switch on the market now, I don't see how anyone could forecast an uptick in XBox One sales over what it has shown already.  And no, I don't think the XBox One S is going to change that.  Once sales drop to a certain point, I think Microsoft will have to move onto the next platform and then yes, XBox One sales will indeed take a full on nosedive.  And, I say this as someone who owns an XBox One but has barely turned it on since getting a Switch at launch.  (I'm disenfranchised enough with Microsoft this gen that PS5 might be my next console purchase.)

The PS3 will still end up close to 90 (87, 88, something like that). It's insane to suppose that the PS4 will end up just marginally better when it is closer to combined PS360 numbers when we align launches. If you're saying that X1 won't do 50 and that PS4 won't do 100M, then we can stop making consoles and call the gaming market dead, because those are horrible numbers. It is however possible that PS4 steals sales from X1, so it ends up above 50M and PS4 gets an extra 10 to 15M from these market changes.

X1 is at 30M and it is 4 years old. X360 (4 years) was at 37M and that was in the end of the year. I really only see X1 failing to 50M if PS4 starts to beat the crap out of him until he is completely dead. While Sony is increasing their advantage, they aren't being aggressive or competent enough to do and onslaught.

If you're using the sales pattern of the PS3 to illustrate the sales, I've already done some calculations with all PS consoles and they sell at a similar pace (proportionally, of course). That's was when I saw Ps3 wouldn't pass 100M, because simply using the PS2 curve adjusted to PS3 resulted in 87-90M. The same PS2 curve puts PS4 at 130M. To make this calculations, I used the separate data for EU, Japan and NA (because these consoles had different launch dates per region) and aligned the numbers. That's exactly why the VGC news posts that show PS4 and PS2 aligned sales shows that PS4 is ahead, they didn't considered that PS2 launched several months later in big regions. Just align the numbers and the results make a lot of sense.

It's all on my profile, Ryng_Tolu kindly provided me the numbers and helped me with the estimations.

I never said that PS4 wouldn't do 100M.  I don't know how much more clear I could have been about that (see bolded above).  What I said was that I personally don't think the XBox One will sell 50 million units, and I'm certain that it won't sell 60 million.  I don't think it's going to get the mid-gen spikes that the XBox 360 got.  The 360's mid-gen refresher added wifi, touch sensitive controll, better cooling, quieter fan all at a decent pricepoint ($299).  The upcoming XBox One X is going to be a $500 console that appeals only to those with 4K TV's.

Add in competition from a newly resurgent Nintendo with the Nintendo Switch, and I think that seals the fact that Xbox One won't have the legs of it's predecessor. There was no brand new hardware on the market during 360's mid-gen spike years. And, the 30 million that Xbox One got these past 4 years were while the Wii U was not a blip on anyone's radar. Now that Nintendo is selling Switches faster than they can get them out of the factory, there is going to be even less marketshare for Xbox One to hang onto.



JRPGfan on 17 July 2017
curl-6 said:
So after 569 votes, 55% say that no, it will not reach 50 million.
Poor Xbone. :'(

I think the majority is wrong this time, it should do 50m.

However it ll be a close thing, its not going get close to 60m at the rate things are going now.



torok on 17 July 2017
Mandalore76 said:

I never said that PS4 wouldn't do 100M.  I don't know how much more clear I could have been about that (see bolded above).  What I said was that I personally don't think the XBox One will sell 50 million units, and I'm certain that it won't sell 60 million.  I don't think it's going to get the mid-gen spikes that the XBox 360 got.  The 360's mid-gen refresher added wifi, touch sensitive controll, better cooling, quieter fan all at a decent pricepoint ($299).  The upcoming XBox One X is going to be a $500 console that appeals only to those with 4K TV's.

Add in competition from a newly resurgent Nintendo with the Nintendo Switch, and I think that seals the fact that Xbox One won't have the legs of it's predecessor. There was no brand new hardware on the market during 360's mid-gen spike years. And, the 30 million that Xbox One got these past 4 years were while the Wii U was not a blip on anyone's radar. Now that Nintendo is selling Switches faster than they can get them out of the factory, there is going to be even less marketshare for Xbox One to hang onto.

Oh, I didn't noticed the bolded part earlier, sorry. Well, I get your point. I would say that using the numbers until 2016 it was clear it would. I recon that it is suffering more against PS4 this year and maybe the PS4 Slim will get faster price cuts than the X1S (no 4K BR drive) and we should not see a lot of buzz from X1X with that price point.

The Switch is also a new variable that will have an impact. So yes, this could become a Sony vs Ninty fight from now on.



Bet with jetforcejiminy: PS4 will pass the Wii lifetime numbers.

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AlfredoTurkey on 17 July 2017

It depends on how long Microsoft wants to call their new consoles Xbox Ones lol.



UltimateGamer1982 on 19 July 2017

New numbers on gaf show xb1 selling less this year, its fourth, than the OG Xbox in 05, it's fourth year. 16million xb1's have been sold in North America since launch. It hasn't even sold a million in America this year yet where PS4 has sold 1.7 million so far.

Now with no new gears or halo this year and only a expensive $500 upgrade, im having a hard time seeing xb1 selling 4m this year. I'm now beginning to think it may not even make it to 40 million before Microsoft cuts the 1 short and starts next gen sooner than later.



Jumpin on 22 July 2017

I'd say no. Based on Xbox and 360 sales trends. It will hit 45M LT tops. Unless it sticks around on the market for another decade or so, then it might hit 46M.

Xbox One peaked in later 2015 to early 2016, and according to 360 sales data, it will decline 30% annually for the next two years, and then drop about 60% annually after that.

So,
2017 ~6M
2018 ~4.2M
2019 ~1.68
2020 ~1M

Or about 43M LT. The Xbox One elite thing will not likely make much of an impact since it will cannibalize sales by putting more used XBones on the market.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Heavenly_King on 22 July 2017

by the time the PS4 sells 100M



Open World-Survival-Game Days Gone

LethalP on 22 July 2017

Let's assume it was at 28 million at the beginning of the year, assuming it does 8 million this year should put it at 36 million by January 2018. If we lowball it and say it does 6 million in 2018 (I honestly think it will be 7 million), it should end up at 42 million by 2019. 5 million in 2019 to get to 48 million. So I'm guessing it should pass 50 million before the Xbox 2 is released in 2020. It will be closer to 60 million by the end of it's lifespan.