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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Kept up with Combined PS3/360 Sales for 3 Years!

Damn thats a lot better than I thought it'd do at the start of this gen.



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Shadow1980 said:

Break it down by region and you'll see something very different. In Japan the PS4 is running a deficit of 917k against combined PS3+360 sales after 173 weeks of sales according to Media Create and never had a lead. In the U.S. it fell behind in less than a year and is running an ever-growing deficit that now stands at over 8.5M as of April according to the NPD (assuming the estimates we got for Jan.-April weren't way off the mark). So, you can pretty much thank Europe and the rest of the world for this achievement.

Well yeah, the PS4 is barely tracking ahead of the 360 alone in the US. But the 360 was actually a beast there, second only to the PS2. Just because PS4 manages to maintain the same level of hype outside of the US doesn't mean it should be downplayed.



Shadow1980 said:

Break it down by region and you'll see something very different. In Japan the PS4 is running a deficit of 917k against combined PS3+360 sales after 173 weeks of sales according to Media Create and never had a lead. In the U.S. it fell behind in less than a year and is running an ever-growing deficit that now stands at over 8.5M as of April according to the NPD (assuming the estimates we got for Jan.-April weren't way off the mark). So, you can pretty much thank Europe and the rest of the world for this achievement.

One...would think others would notice the difference between a world brand and an American brand. Sony is the original expander industry based on multimedia console gaming. That changed the game and prompted Microsoft to jump in. Americans are less picky than people in other countries too. Were more of a consumerist culture.



PS3 and 360 had incredible years 4, 5, and 6. It will be interesting to see if PS4 can surge ahead at even high rates the next 3 years.

They have a very good roadmap going forward. PS4 is already profitable at $249.99, & could very likely be profitable at $199.99 with the 2100 model this holiday. When they move to 7nm, most likely around 2019, they could possibly move to $149.99 or less. As digital rises, and SSD prices drop, I could see a $99.99 digital only PS4 in holiday 2020.

Then they have PSVR which is going to get bigger and bigger over the next 3 years. As the price drops on both it and PS4 models, and the AAA VR library gows, this will help reach new markets. Also PlayStation Vue will make massive strides as OTT TV becomes the standard for live TV. With a $99.99 digital only PS4 they could move a lot of units as cable box replacements.

Add the massive library of 1st party exclusives we already know about for 2018 & 2019, and they should have no problem selling 20+ million units each of the next 3 years.

Getting really crazy, if they expand the PS4 to additional form factors, we could see sales surge into the 30 million territory.

I still think PS4 will outsell PS2 when it is all said and done, and I could see it catching back up to PS3 + 360 around 2022.



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Lawlight said:
ZhugeEX said:

I think it'll reach the 100m mark through the initiatives that we know of. 

Price drops, push into new / growing markets, new game software, online growth, playlink etc...

To give a final LTD number for PS4 is a lot harder because it depends a lot on when 'next gen' starts and also how Sony handle the transition. 

 

Besides, what's more important is how engaged users are on PS4 both in regards to time and spend. PS4 is already the market leader when it comes to hardware. Now it's time to see how software and network sales continue to grow. 

Very good post. If Sony decides to kill the PS4 after the PS5 like they did with the PS3, then 100M will be harder to reach but it will still reach it. If not, I think we're looking at 110M.

One thing to note is Switch puts a bit wrench into everything. It has come out in the middle of the PS4's life cycle and may take Japanese development away from Sony (as Switch sales in Japan are much stronger). Sony could transition sooner than they otherwise would off. Of course, this is pure speculation on my part. 



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VideoGameAccountant said:
Lawlight said:

Very good post. If Sony decides to kill the PS4 after the PS5 like they did with the PS3, then 100M will be harder to reach but it will still reach it. If not, I think we're looking at 110M.

One thing to note is Switch puts a bit wrench into everything. It has come out in the middle of the PS4's life cycle and may take Japanese development away from Sony (as Switch sales in Japan are much stronger). Sony could transition sooner than they otherwise would off. Of course, this is pure speculation on my part. 

Why would Japanese devs ignore the market outside of Japan though? Unless you mean the smaller games like what Vita has been getting.



Lawlight said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

One thing to note is Switch puts a bit wrench into everything. It has come out in the middle of the PS4's life cycle and may take Japanese development away from Sony (as Switch sales in Japan are much stronger). Sony could transition sooner than they otherwise would off. Of course, this is pure speculation on my part. 

Why would Japanese devs ignore the market outside of Japan though? Unless you mean the smaller games like what Vita has been getting.

First, the Switch will definitely absorb the Vita's development.

Second, why would they be ignoring the market outside of Japan by developing for the Switch. The system is doing well in the US and Europe. So Switch development is better because you can sell to the West AND Japan.

There was a 4chan rumor a while back that Capcom was freaking out with Monster Hunter Worlds. It was suppose to be the Western Monster Hunter, but then Generations sold well on the 3DS (in the west). Moreover, the Nintendo Switch was this break away hit. But Worlds can't come to Nintendo because of the contract. Rumor is they are rushing out Worlds to get working on a portable Monster Hunter. I don't doubt other developers would do the same. With the system selling in Japan, Japanese developers may jump ship to make games for the system. 



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It's hard to grasp how well it's done as well as this generation in general. This gen has been awful to me and 3 yrs in I thought the PS3 had just as manly notable games as the PS4 thus far. Why it's done so well os beyond me. I can't believe bland games like Destiny, Watch Dogs and Ghost Recon Wildlands have done better than franchises from last gen. Last gen was way better. It's disappointing that this gen has done so well for Sony and multiplatform companies. Rant over.



VideoGameAccountant said:
Lawlight said:

Why would Japanese devs ignore the market outside of Japan though? Unless you mean the smaller games like what Vita has been getting.

First, the Switch will definitely absorb the Vita's development.

Second, why would they be ignoring the market outside of Japan by developing for the Switch. The system is doing well in the US and Europe. So Switch development is better because you can sell to the West AND Japan.

There was a 4chan rumor a while back that Capcom was freaking out with Monster Hunter Worlds. It was suppose to be the Western Monster Hunter, but then Generations sold well on the 3DS (in the west). Moreover, the Nintendo Switch was this break away hit. But Worlds can't come to Nintendo because of the contract. Rumor is they are rushing out Worlds to get working on a portable Monster Hunter. I don't doubt other developers would do the same. With the system selling in Japan, Japanese developers may jump ship to make games for the system. 

3rd party Japanese developers had plenty of opportunities to "jump ship" with better selling Nintendo hardware (Wii over PS3, DS over PSP, 3DS over Vita) but the Switch is going to be that system to initiate that change...gotcha.



Train wreck said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

First, the Switch will definitely absorb the Vita's development.

Second, why would they be ignoring the market outside of Japan by developing for the Switch. The system is doing well in the US and Europe. So Switch development is better because you can sell to the West AND Japan.

There was a 4chan rumor a while back that Capcom was freaking out with Monster Hunter Worlds. It was suppose to be the Western Monster Hunter, but then Generations sold well on the 3DS (in the west). Moreover, the Nintendo Switch was this break away hit. But Worlds can't come to Nintendo because of the contract. Rumor is they are rushing out Worlds to get working on a portable Monster Hunter. I don't doubt other developers would do the same. With the system selling in Japan, Japanese developers may jump ship to make games for the system. 

3rd party Japanese developers had plenty of opportunities to "jump ship" with better selling Nintendo hardware (Wii over PS3, DS over PSP, 3DS over Vita) but the Switch is going to be that system to initiate that change...gotcha.

Nintendo handhelds have always gotten a ton of Japanese support. In the handheld market, Sony lost the support of Japanese developers to Nintendo (Monster Hunter started on PSP for example). Now that the handheld is now a console, I don't think its unreasonable to think Nintendo could take console development from Sony just as they took handheld development away from them.



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