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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Predict When will Ps4 Outsell Wii

rodea_sky_soldier said:

Why should PS4 sell 10 million in 2020, with PS5 on market going for its second year of life? makes no sense.


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After holidays 2019.

I'd say it will pass the Wii by 2020.

Depends. From the looks of it, Sony is able to make the PS4 dirt cheap. You can get one right now for 180 € around here. If the price continues to fall, sales will rise. I think it isn't impossible for us to see PS4 retailing for 149 € sometime next year, even when the official price recommendation won't go that low. Still, with such a low entry price, I can see the PS4 actually rising in sales yoy. Something similar happened with the PS2, if I remember correctly. That console sold I think only 10 million in 2004 just to sell 20 million in 2005, because of ridiculous low prices. I grabbed one by that time for 89 €.

Long story short, it all depends on price and it's looking good. The PS3 stayed expensive forever, it never got really cheap. Hell it didn't even ever get as cheap as the PS4 is right now, not even with that silly 12 GB model. Scorpio will only help to make the price tag of the PS4 lower. I can see the PS4 outselling the Wii by the end of 2019. Maybe even earlier, but not later.

Official member of VGC's Nintendo family, approved by the one and only RolStoppable. I feel honored.

aLkaLiNE said:
Dulfite said:

Ps4 is currently at 58 mil

Wii is like 101 million

Where did you get the only needing 20 mil more to catch the Wii?

It was at 58 million at the end of April, over a month ago. It's close to 60 million if it isn't there already, and sell in has most definitely passed that. You're still dodging the point though. You really think it'll sell ~20 million over the course of the rest of its lifetime? It'll cover 80% of that in just a year.  What you're saying makes no sense and nothing historically supports your prediction.

I understood that reference!

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It's always funny when you see people calling out others for underestimating the Switch (I was one of them and have no problem admitting so) but completely ignore those who keep underestimating the ps4, like here saying it won't get anywhere near 100m. By the time it does, (sometime in 2020) they will act like no one said that and that it was a given since the ps4 has always done well.

Might even bookmark this thread for the lolz.

Qwark said:

Why do people think Scorpio is going to change anything. The very best scenario is that the Xone sells 9 million units instead of 8 million units a year.

yeah, it really is bizarre. It's a mid-gen upgrade that just happens to be bigger than Playstation's. People seem to think having more power four years into a gen is going to change something. Power was a big deal early on because two similar consoles released side by side, but as the years go on through a gen power becomes less of a bonus in terms of pushing sales. And it is still an Xbox, which means mainland Europe, Asia and RotW territories still won't give a shit. It might take up a bit more market share in US and UK, and that is about it. A bit of depseration is shwoing all around.

As for PS4, I think it will pass Wii 2020 first half. I think it will do it after PS5 is released though, and only end up a couple million more

I doubt it. PS4 had fantastic 2016, but so far in 2017 sales kind of stagnated. With Switch and soon Scorpio on the market, there will be quite substantial amount of potential customers who will sway towards competitors. Not to mention that the PC gaming is on the all time high and keeps growing. So far PS4 was the universal platform of choice for gaming, that might not be the case next year.

I have no idea it depends on this holiday PS4 sales.

Wow, is it really possible to be this blindly biased? Or is it ignorance? It also seems like people think the Wii did something impossible. Every PS console has sold more than the Wii. Well, all but the PS3. But even though that console had EVERYTHING working against it, a $200 price difference from the 360 and worst multiplats for the first couple years, it only sold ~14M less than the mighty Wii. That's just how strong the PS brand is.

The fact is Sony predicted 18M for this fiscal year because they know that's the least they can pull off. They're already starting stating 78M like it's a done deal. Personally, I see them being flat YOY, with the most they are down is 500K. They are already up YOY in the US and Japan. Wouldn't be surprised if it's up YOY in EU, too. Even if we go with Sony's number, that puts it at 78M. For the next fiscal year, which ends March 2019, if we go with the same 2M decline, it puts the PS4 at 94M. Even if the PS5 is out at the tail end of 2019 and causes the PS4 to decline 4M YOY for the next fiscal year, the PS4 will be at 106M and at that point it is done.

And even if it's a little lower for some of those years, the PS4 is going to stay on market for at least two years after the PS5 launches. It'll have a whole other year to make up for it.