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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Predict When will Ps4 Outsell Wii

Qwark said:

Why do people think Scorpio is going to change anything. The very best scenario is that the Xone sells 9 million units instead of 8 million units a year.

yeah, it really is bizarre. It's a mid-gen upgrade that just happens to be bigger than Playstation's. People seem to think having more power four years into a gen is going to change something. Power was a big deal early on because two similar consoles released side by side, but as the years go on through a gen power becomes less of a bonus in terms of pushing sales. And it is still an Xbox, which means mainland Europe, Asia and RotW territories still won't give a shit. It might take up a bit more market share in US and UK, and that is about it. A bit of depseration is shwoing all around.

As for PS4, I think it will pass Wii 2020 first half. I think it will do it after PS5 is released though, and only end up a couple million more



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I doubt it. PS4 had fantastic 2016, but so far in 2017 sales kind of stagnated. With Switch and soon Scorpio on the market, there will be quite substantial amount of potential customers who will sway towards competitors. Not to mention that the PC gaming is on the all time high and keeps growing. So far PS4 was the universal platform of choice for gaming, that might not be the case next year.



I have no idea it depends on this holiday PS4 sales.



Wow, is it really possible to be this blindly biased? Or is it ignorance? It also seems like people think the Wii did something impossible. Every PS console has sold more than the Wii. Well, all but the PS3. But even though that console had EVERYTHING working against it, a $200 price difference from the 360 and worst multiplats for the first couple years, it only sold ~14M less than the mighty Wii. That's just how strong the PS brand is.

The fact is Sony predicted 18M for this fiscal year because they know that's the least they can pull off. They're already starting stating 78M like it's a done deal. Personally, I see them being flat YOY, with the most they are down is 500K. They are already up YOY in the US and Japan. Wouldn't be surprised if it's up YOY in EU, too. Even if we go with Sony's number, that puts it at 78M. For the next fiscal year, which ends March 2019, if we go with the same 2M decline, it puts the PS4 at 94M. Even if the PS5 is out at the tail end of 2019 and causes the PS4 to decline 4M YOY for the next fiscal year, the PS4 will be at 106M and at that point it is done.

And even if it's a little lower for some of those years, the PS4 is going to stay on market for at least two years after the PS5 launches. It'll have a whole other year to make up for it.



Two thousand and NEVER.



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Kristof81 said:
I doubt it. PS4 had fantastic 2016, but so far in 2017 sales kind of stagnated. With Switch and soon Scorpio on the market, there will be quite substantial amount of potential customers who will sway towards competitors. Not to mention that the PC gaming is on the all time high and keeps growing. So far PS4 was the universal platform of choice for gaming, that might not be the case next year.

Last NPD data we have is from April 2017.

SWI: 280k
PS4: 201k - 229k
XB1: 127

April YoY (year on year):

PS4 +23.0%

XB1 -25.3%

 

Also I believe it was up, every other month of 2017 as well.

How can sales have "stagnated" if their higher this year, every month so far, than last years?



I believe Sony will beat it's 18 Million forecast this year putting it at 80 million shipped by March 2018.

Then I think VR is going to really start to pick up next year, and with possibly a 3rd PS4 revision, and definitly a PSVR revision and Price cut. So I think 100 Million shipped by March 2019 is very likely.

From there, I think an announcement of 100 Million sold to consumers will happen around April or May of 2019. That would mean it should pass the Wii around summer 2019.



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Teriol said:
bluedawgs said:

fortunately the PS5 is actually no where close to coming out so i think end of 2019 is when PS4 will outsell wii

Don't be so sure about it, Scorpio and NS are going to make sony to rush the ps5.

Haha.  

 

Anyway January 2020. 

Last edited by Kerotan - on 26 January 2019

Kristof81 said:
I doubt it. PS4 had fantastic 2016, but so far in 2017 sales kind of stagnated. With Switch and soon Scorpio on the market, there will be quite substantial amount of potential customers who will sway towards competitors. Not to mention that the PC gaming is on the all time high and keeps growing. So far PS4 was the universal platform of choice for gaming, that might not be the case next year.

You want to post a source that points to sales stagnating?  Cause all we have officially is it is up in the US and Japan.  Even with the Switch.  It's obvious that the Switch is not affecting PS4's sales.  They are different enough to appeal to two different audiences.  That and some people are buying both.  As for the Scorpio, maybe it'll help increase sales of the Xbox in a few countries, but PS is a WW brand.  It's not going to hurt it in the majority of countries.  Even in the countries that are interested in Xbox, I doubt it's really going to affect the PS4's sale much, if at all.