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Forums - Sales Discussion - May 2017 NPD Thread! PS4 #1

DonFerrari said:
Nautilus said:

Well, I cant really said that isnt true, but at the same time I cant really blame Nintendo, after they came off of the Wii U.By all recors, its still selling great, even if you compare it to the PS4 and XOne if you allign their launches.Its just its frustrating that its this hard to find a Switch when you want to buy one.

And I mean, lets say that when holiday comes and they sell 5 millions unit there, but demand was not yet met, is it really Nintendo fault that they didnt antecipate such a demand?

But yeah, hopefully they fix this issue soon.It wont be good for them in the long run

Yes, if the company isn't confident in their product or if they don't read the market right it's their fault.

Sony is still facing supply issues on PS4Pro and they admitted they mispredicted it. That is their sole fault.

As I said, it is their fault, but I personally cant blame them after the disaster they had with the Wii U.Betwenn under and overproducing, from a bussiness point of view its better to be safe than sorry.

Same with the PS4 at their launch.Cant blame them making less hardware than the actual demand was after the financial disaster that the PS3 was.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

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pokoko said:
It's a shame we can't get an accurate picture of the Switch's ceiling. When something goes out of stock, trying to project how much it would have sold without supply problems is impossible. We can't assume it would or would not outsell the PS4. We don't even know if scarcity is helping to drive interest or not.

I hope they get this sorted soon, though I doubt it. Otherwise, we'll just get more arguments based on assumptions from both sides.

Well, we can always make crazy suppositions that if there was 10M consoles available in May they would sell all that 10M.

Nautilus said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes, if the company isn't confident in their product or if they don't read the market right it's their fault.

Sony is still facing supply issues on PS4Pro and they admitted they mispredicted it. That is their sole fault.

As I said, it is their fault, but I personally cant blame them after the disaster they had with the Wii U.Betwenn under and overproducing, from a bussiness point of view its better to be safe than sorry.

Same with the PS4 at their launch.Cant blame them making less hardware than the actual demand was after the financial disaster that the PS3 was.

I understand now. I was thinking you weren't even seeing they at fault.

I still blame they on not making their analysis of the market in a better way, being marginally underproduced is ok and makes sense, being severely constrained may bit they in the back.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Nautilus said:

As I said, it is their fault, but I personally cant blame them after the disaster they had with the Wii U.Betwenn under and overproducing, from a bussiness point of view its better to be safe than sorry.

Same with the PS4 at their launch.Cant blame them making less hardware than the actual demand was after the financial disaster that the PS3 was.

I understand now. I was thinking you weren't even seeing they at fault.

I still blame they on not making their analysis of the market in a better way, being marginally underproduced is ok and makes sense, being severely constrained may bit they in the back.

Agreed!



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

DonFerrari said:

 That is their sole fault.

A response to that allegation just in!!!

There you have it folks. Don isn't to be trusted!



SWORDF1SH said:
DonFerrari said:

 That is their sole fault.

A response to that allegation just in!!!

There you have it folks. Don isn't to be trusted!

I'm still Don Matrick Ferrari



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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DonFerrari said:
SWORDF1SH said:

A response to that allegation just in!!!

There you have it folks. Don isn't to be trusted!

I'm still Don Matrick Ferrari

That explains it lol



DonFerrari said:
KLAMarine said:

Plenty more caveats to go around: no major releases for PS4 in May but Switch didn't have any either. PS4 has no manufacturing issues as far as I know and has big bundles out while the Switch is encountering shortages. In Amazon, it's selling decently at a $400 price assuming Amazon algorithms work the way I think they work... Keep in mind no game comes bundled in this $400 box.

And here I thought asking for $300 might have been $50 too much. It's selling decently at $400...

PS4Pro is on restraints on supply as well, and it launched earlier than Switch.

That's true, and it's worth mentioning, but it's not as all encompassing as the Switch situation. But yeah, good point.



- "If you have the heart of a true winner, you can always get more pissed off than some other asshole."

SWORDF1SH said:
DonFerrari said:

I'm still Don Matrick Ferrari

That explains it lol

Look at my avatar

COKTOE said:
DonFerrari said:

PS4Pro is on restraints on supply as well, and it launched earlier than Switch.

That's true, and it's worth mentioning, but it's not as all encompassing as the Switch situation. But yeah, good point.

Well if some people here can make the assumption I can as well say that if PS4Pro wasn't out of stock for several months PS4 would have won all NPDs so far =]



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
KLAMarine said:

Plenty more caveats to go around: no major releases for PS4 in May but Switch didn't have any either. PS4 has no manufacturing issues as far as I know and has big bundles out while the Switch is encountering shortages. In Amazon, it's selling decently at a $400 price assuming Amazon algorithms work the way I think they work... Keep in mind no game comes bundled in this $400 box.

And here I thought asking for $300 might have been $50 too much. It's selling decently at $400...

PS4Pro is on restraints on supply as well, and it launched earlier than Switch.

Right and Switch has no Switch Pro to help boost sales numbers.



DonFerrari said:
Mnementh said:

Yeah, in a sold out situation this amounts to units in transfer. This amounts to:

1. manufacturing to shippign harbor

2. container ship from China to US or europe

3. from harbor to the stores

As the big manufacturers are working mostly for export, I assume they have optimized step 1. I assume less than 3 days. Say three days as top estimate.

Step 2 takes around 50 days from China to eruope through the suez-canal if they stop in harbors on the way. Gets a lot faster if the ship travels directly to eruope (as I read down to 12 days). But a container ship with much freight probably stops at every possibility to change freight. To america I read something around 30 days.

Step 3 should be below a week. As goods in a warehouse are losing money, everyone is interested to bring it to destination as fast as possible.

So overall, we should have one or two months of units sitting in the distribution chain. This changes though, if the item is no longer sold out and sitting on shelves.

So, I would assume around 1 million units are stuck in transfer. Remember though, these units are sold in the next quarter to customers but don't add to shipped that quarter.

Sony was doing airplane shipping on PS4 first christmas that had a 1 week total time, and that made the shortage in jan and feb a lot bigger.

Yeah, I don't really get it. it's a short term remedy that is making the situation worse down the line. But good for marketing I assume. Now they both did it, Sony and Nintendo.



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