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Forums - Sales Discussion - May 2017 NPD Thread! PS4 #1

Eh, my prediction was right !

I expected the ps4 to win this month (but with a hard battle), then easily june .
Maybe a loss for the splatoon 2 release month, then only win once september kick in.



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KLAMarine said:
Rem87919394 said:
The fact that they're beating Switch with no major releases yet. Shows this gen is basically over as far as who'll win. Switch and x1 will still sell respectable though.

Plenty more caveats to go around: no major releases for PS4 in May but Switch didn't have any either. PS4 has no manufacturing issues as far as I know and has big bundles out while the Switch is encountering shortages. In Amazon, it's selling decently at a $400 price assuming Amazon algorithms work the way I think they work... Keep in mind no game comes bundled in this $400 box.

And here I thought asking for $300 might have been $50 too much. It's selling decently at $400...

PS4Pro is on restraints on supply as well, and it launched earlier than Switch.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Mnementh said:
Lawlight said:

There's always a difference between how much is shipped vs how much is sold at retail.

Yeah, in a sold out situation this amounts to units in transfer. This amounts to:

1. manufacturing to shippign harbor

2. container ship from China to US or europe

3. from harbor to the stores

As the big manufacturers are working mostly for export, I assume they have optimized step 1. I assume less than 3 days. Say three days as top estimate.

Step 2 takes around 50 days from China to eruope through the suez-canal if they stop in harbors on the way. Gets a lot faster if the ship travels directly to eruope (as I read down to 12 days). But a container ship with much freight probably stops at every possibility to change freight. To america I read something around 30 days.

Step 3 should be below a week. As goods in a warehouse are losing money, everyone is interested to bring it to destination as fast as possible.

So overall, we should have one or two months of units sitting in the distribution chain. This changes though, if the item is no longer sold out and sitting on shelves.

So, I would assume around 1 million units are stuck in transfer. Remember though, these units are sold in the next quarter to customers but don't add to shipped that quarter.

Sony was doing airplane shipping on PS4 first christmas that had a 1 week total time, and that made the shortage in jan and feb a lot bigger.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Hiku said:

Well look on the bright side.

At least we don't know which system will win NPD. That's pretty rare.

...but we do know which system won't be winning NPD. 



taus90 said:
Ali_16x said:

well if it wasn't for supply constraints, yes, it was.

so if it doesn't beat PS4 in holiday.. blame it back on Stock issue!!.. This is getting old, i cant believe people are buying manufacturing issue BS.. there is nothing new in Switch that isnt being mass produced already for mobile phones. Unlike GDDR5 in PS4 during launch, still PS4 stock issues where next to none.

For whoever actually wants to see the truth in stuff, the Switch is heavily supply limited.The Switch is a hot new piece of hardware that brings new stuff to the table and it is selling as such.If the holiday comes, and Nintendo manages to meet demand, but even then it loses, then yeah, we cant blame supply problems.Otherwise, it is supply issues, as everyone has been saying so far.

I mean, even Zhuge, which is a respected analist at this site at the very least is saying that.

About the bolded, just .... try harder.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

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SpokenTruth said:
DonFerrari said:

Sony was doing airplane shipping on PS4 first christmas that had a 1 week total time, and that made the shortage in jan and feb a lot bigger.

Nintendo just did the same which is why we say a big increase a few weeks after launch and then a big drop.  

Unfortunatelly that is to expensive and they only use on very specific occasions, beside the after effect being even worse shortages.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Nautilus said:
taus90 said:

so if it doesn't beat PS4 in holiday.. blame it back on Stock issue!!.. This is getting old, i cant believe people are buying manufacturing issue BS.. there is nothing new in Switch that isnt being mass produced already for mobile phones. Unlike GDDR5 in PS4 during launch, still PS4 stock issues where next to none.

For whoever actually wants to see the truth in stuff, the Switch is heavily supply limited.The Switch is a hot new piece of hardware that brings new stuff to the table and it is selling as such.If the holiday comes, and Nintendo manages to meet demand, but even then it loses, then yeah, we cant blame supply problems.Otherwise, it is supply issues, as everyone has been saying so far.

I mean, even Zhuge, which is a respected analist at this site at the very least is saying that.

About the bolded, just .... try harder.

One year of supply issues is bad management... and on the bolded the stock issues for PS4 weren't as big and most of them were in specific territories.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Nautilus said:

For whoever actually wants to see the truth in stuff, the Switch is heavily supply limited.The Switch is a hot new piece of hardware that brings new stuff to the table and it is selling as such.If the holiday comes, and Nintendo manages to meet demand, but even then it loses, then yeah, we cant blame supply problems.Otherwise, it is supply issues, as everyone has been saying so far.

I mean, even Zhuge, which is a respected analist at this site at the very least is saying that.

About the bolded, just .... try harder.

One year of supply issues is bad management... and on the bolded the stock issues for PS4 weren't as big and most of them were in specific territories.

Well, I cant really said that isnt true, but at the same time I cant really blame Nintendo, after they came off of the Wii U.By all recors, its still selling great, even if you compare it to the PS4 and XOne if you allign their launches.Its just its frustrating that its this hard to find a Switch when you want to buy one.

And I mean, lets say that when holiday comes and they sell 5 millions unit there, but demand was not yet met, is it really Nintendo fault that they didnt antecipate such a demand?

But yeah, hopefully they fix this issue soon.It wont be good for them in the long run



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus said:
DonFerrari said:

One year of supply issues is bad management... and on the bolded the stock issues for PS4 weren't as big and most of them were in specific territories.

Well, I cant really said that isnt true, but at the same time I cant really blame Nintendo, after they came off of the Wii U.By all recors, its still selling great, even if you compare it to the PS4 and XOne if you allign their launches.Its just its frustrating that its this hard to find a Switch when you want to buy one.

And I mean, lets say that when holiday comes and they sell 5 millions unit there, but demand was not yet met, is it really Nintendo fault that they didnt antecipate such a demand?

But yeah, hopefully they fix this issue soon.It wont be good for them in the long run

Yes, if the company isn't confident in their product or if they don't read the market right it's their fault.

Sony is still facing supply issues on PS4Pro and they admitted they mispredicted it. That is their sole fault.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

It's a shame we can't get an accurate picture of the Switch's ceiling. When something goes out of stock, trying to project how much it would have sold without supply problems is impossible. We can't assume it would or would not outsell the PS4. We don't even know if scarcity is helping to drive interest or not.

I hope they get this sorted soon, though I doubt it. Otherwise, we'll just get more arguments based on assumptions from both sides.