Barkley said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
And do you really think the difference between shipments and sales is gonna be that high? With Switch having a very bad stock situation in Japan, and also Benji reporting stocks problems for Switch were bad even in January, you think there are gonna be 1.5-2 million difference between sold and shipped figure?
There is a reason if i talk about shipments: this is what Nintendo release. The 10 million sold annunced was a particolar special event, they won't do again this end of the quarter, they rarely annunce console sales worldwide, just shipments, and that's what i use, while you still want to use VGC even if you should know is super inaccurate as a source?
If they seriusly ship 15 million, you can say goodbye to your 12.4-12.8 million sold estimate lol.
You know what, fine, whatever you want, 13.5 million is not the minimum if we really want to assume the "anything is possible" thing. This doesn't mean your numbers right now are super pessimist, can you AT LEAST tell me reasons you think Switch should be under 13 million sold? When right now everything show is over that.
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"do you really think the difference between shipments and sales is gonna be that high?"
Depends how long it takes from shipping the consoles to them being available to purchase on shelves, I don't believe there is a large amount of stock available to purchase, but there may be in transit.
"while you still want to use VGC even if you should know is super inaccurate as a source?"
I've already used figures other than VGC to show that current VGC numbers are not "super innacurate" at this time, as they lineup with official numbers from Nintendo for USA, Mediacreate numbers for Japan, and Official numbers from Nintendo for France.
"This doesn't mean your numbers right now are super pessimist, can you AT LEAST tell me reasons you think Switch should be under 13 million sold? When right now everything show is over that."
The reasons are... the 10m sold to consumers figure given by Nintendo, while there is some debate on when this figure actually applies to (december 3rd? December 9th?) It doesn't matter either way. I gave the Switch a 12.5m-13.5m range upon the announcement of this figure, estimating the Switch would sell between 2.5m and 3.5m for the remainder of december.
Now with the mediacreate, and official numbers for USA/France I have edited that to 12.4-12.8m, which for the most part is within my original range.
2.4-2.8m sold between December 4th and December 31st is not a low figure.
In fact to assume Switch sold more than 3m in December is to assume the Switch outsold PS4 GLOBALLY in december.
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I won't reply to everything because i'm kinda boring, just the points i care the most:
1) The VGC things: You only watch the markets VGC track and completely ignore the rest. Ok, Switch may be good in USA, Japan, and France. What about the rest?
Aaccording to VGC, North America, which is not even all of America (and people forget that) + Japan account for 74% of sales this week. Europe + rest of world is barely 230k, and like i said, we need to remove some units from the rest of America.
Assuming Switch did 200-210k outside of America and Japan this week, rest of the world would account for only 23-24% of WW sales. Yeeeeeeeeah... seem VERY LIKELY, right?
Is not undertracked in France? Good, there are a lot of others countries to see.
2) What's wrong with Switch outselling PS4 worldwide this month? Total 2017 sales of course show PS4 head of Switch, because PS4 clearly sold better during the year. Talking about December tho?
We know that Switch outsold PS4 by OVER 400K in US alone. And the situation is most likely not different in the rest of the America, not only, but it's probabily more Switch favour since Canada had Switch YTD over PS4 YTD as for Septemer. That 400K in USA alone is pretty big, isn't it?
Well... now there another ONE MILLION gap in Japan, 1.15 million to be precise.
America+Japan Switch probabily outsold PS4 by 1.6 million, well, we know US+Japan the gap is 1.55 million, and there are no reason to think rest of America does not increase this gap, considering Canada, the second biggest America market for videogames, show that Switch does even better in term of marketshare compared to PS4.
EDIT: How, France as well. For what we know, France could be as very well Switch favour, it surely doesn't help PS4 that much since in the best scenario, PS4 is barely head of Switch in December in France.
So really is that hard to believe PS4 sold less than Switch in December? We all know December is a massive month for Nintendo, while for Sony the boost is not as high. With the data we have, is super likely that Switch outsold PS4 in December.
Last edited by Ryng - on 13 January 2018
