Switch vs Ps4 - Who will win 2017 WW

[zorg1000]

Barkley said:

Ryng_Tolu said:

Switch sales in Japan are at 3.3 million as for 24 December 2017, and account for 25% of WW sales, which mean Switch is at ~13.2 million worldwide.

With another week, is pretty fair to assume that 13.5 million will be the minimum of Switch sales in 2017, not the maximum. I actually think 13.6/13.7 million will be the final number, with worldwide shipments at around 14.5 million.

Well VGC's figures are now going to be 13m tops, but we can compare them to official and media create to check how their tracking is in Japan/USA.

Japan - 3.2m (December 24th. Media Create) 

USA - "Over 4.8m" (First 10 months, January 3rd-ish?, Nintendo)

Now for VGC.

Japan - 3.19m (December 23rd) seems spot on with Media Create

USA - 4.7m (December 23rd), With another week, or slightly over a week, to go it actually looks like VGC is overtracking USA a little bit.

So there doesn't seem to be a reason to believe VGC is undertracking the Switch by any substantial degree, so now the Switch should end around 12.4-12.8m

So no 13.5m wasn't the minimum, my range was seemingly too high. I couldn't find the 25% figure you used, but I think the problem was taking that source too literally, a deviation of a single % would be a massive difference.

Europe is likely undertracked.

Sell through end of Sept

Global-7 million

USA-over 2.3 million

Japan-1.8 million

USA+Japan-~60% of global sell through

 

Sell through as of Dec 10

Global-over 10 million

USA-over 3.4 million

Japan-2.7 million

USA+Japan-~60% of global sell through

 

Sales end of 2017

Global-????

USA-over 4.8 million

Japan-3.3 million

USA+Japan-over 8.1 million, if we assume roughly 60% again than global sell through should be around 13.5 million.