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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Switch will sell over 100 million units

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Lawlight said:
Those who predict 100M for the Switch, I wonder how much they predicted for the PS4.

115 million



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I'm going to tag this just to remind myself that I forgot to give you a large repository of jazz arranges of Touhou music.

I do agree with the premise, though I anticipate that if the Switch is too successful, Sony will come out with a counter to it.



 
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zorg1000 said:
barneystinson69 said:

Just a heads up, the Wii U and the 3DS COMBINED have done less than 80 million, and the 3DS has been on the market for almost 6 years. What makes you think that the Switch will go above and beyond that?

How are 3DS & Wii U sales relevant to Switch sales?

They're not, but they're relevant to Nintendo as a whole. Historically, Nintendo platforms sell less than their previous generations (with the anomalous exception of Gen 6), so it's not outside of the realm of reasonable predictions to believe it won't hit 80m or more.

 

That said, it's very difficult to get a hold of right now and has great sales numbers. I feel the next few months will be crucial to whether or not the novelty of the Switch sticks, and should it do so, 100m is definitely a reasonable predictions.



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zorg1000 said:
barneystinson69 said:

Just a heads up, the Wii U and the 3DS COMBINED have done less than 80 million, and the 3DS has been on the market for almost 6 years. What makes you think that the Switch will go above and beyond that?

How are 3DS & Wii U sales relevant to Switch sales?

They tell us what happens when Nintendo messes up, so the logical conclusion is that 80m should be the floor for Switch sales predictions.

You have to forgive barney for getting obvious things wrong. He is a fan of the Calgary Flames.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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barneystinson69 said:

That it had a strong launch, but it isn't blowing the world on fire. PS4 is already beating the Switch with one month of sales, so...

For one, what does PS4 performance have to do with anything?

Secondly, Switch is virtually sold out in most major markets.



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Back in March my prediction was 90-100 million, but in recent weeks I've been feeling pretty ballsy for the Switch.

I believe Switch will sell 125-135 million by the end of 2024.



RolStoppable said:
zorg1000 said:

How are 3DS & Wii U sales relevant to Switch sales?

They tell us what happens when Nintendo messes up, so the logical conclusion is that 80m should be the floor for Switch sales predictions.

You have to forgive barney for getting obvious things wrong. He is a fan of the Calgary Flames.

XD

At least I root for a team that tries its best, not the one that has the most money...



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

I like to be optimistic, but I'm not ready to believe a prediction like that.



 

              

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Anfebious said:

Nintendo would have benefited a lot more in supporting the Wii rather than releasing the Wii U.

It's easy to say that now. Hindsight is always 20/20. Predictions for the Wii U were all over the place in the months prior to launch. Some expressed pessimism, others optimism. But regardless of the predictions, Nintendo absolutely under no uncertain terms had to release a new console at some point, and the rate the Wii was declining meant they couldn't put off the Wii U by two or three more years. Nintendo had already invested heavily in the Wii U. The more or less final design was unveiled at E3 2011. Much of their software development efforts were starting to shift to the newer system, because that's what happens for all first-party development. Nintendo's support for the NES diminished massively after the SNES was released, and same for the SNES once the N64 was released. Nintendo stopped releasing games for the N64 before the GameCube was even released. Twilight Princess was the last game Nintendo released for the GC. Of course Nintendo wasn't going to continue to invest heavily in the Wii in the long run.

It sucks that the Wii U flopped. But the realities of console development are what they are, and the Wii U had to come out when it did.



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Azuren said:

Historically, Nintendo platforms sell less than their previous generations 

if only that were true



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.