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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Switch will sell over 100 million units

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I rather not to have such high expectations so soon but I would be lying if I said I don't think this could happen, because is starting to feel pretty possible. It doesn't need to sell that much to be a huge success though.



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I think it can.



Anfebious said:

After cutting the Wii short (bad decision!) Nintendo learned their lesson

Well, Nintendo didn't have much of a choice. The Wii peaked in 2008 in the U.S. and Europe, and in 2010 sales declined from 2008 levels by 30% in the U.S. and 33% in Europe. In Japan, it peaked in 2007 and by 2009 its sales had dropped by nearly half. If they put more effort into supporting the Wii with big first-party titles, they may have staunched the bleed-out a little bit, but it would be delaying the inevitable by maybe a year, and Nintendo would still be feeling the pressure to replace the Wii with a new system. A system usually has dropped 40-50% from peak year sales the year before they're replaced. The Wii's sales trajectory was, when adjusted for the size of the system's install base, rather normal for a Nintendo console. In fact, the Wii lasted longer than the SNES, N64, and GC did before being replaced. But Nintendo was running out of people to sell the Wii to.

TL;DR, the Wii wasn't cut any shorter than any other Nintendo system. It had a rather normal life cycle for a post-SNES Nintendo console.

 

In any case, the Switch should do very well. 100 million is certainly possible, though far, far from guaranteed. I think 80M is a more reasonable estimate. The ultimate test for the Switch's sales potential in the long run will be if and when it becomes the home for main series Pokemon games. Assuming historical patterns hold, we'll probably see the first "Gen VIII" games debut exclusives on the Switch, with a new main series game followed by an enhanced remake of Diamond & Pearl sometime later. Those games will almost certaintly propel the Switch to new heights, but how high those heights are will give us a clue as to what the Switch will likely sell lifetime. Other important tests for the Switch will be whatever updated models are released, the effects of price cuts, and perhaps also other major software releases, most notably Super Mario, Mario Kart 9 (if we get one), and Smash 5.



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

barneystinson69 said:
RolStoppable said:

This is my thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224719

Originally I made it because the stupidity and ignorance for sales numbers of the VGC community bothered me (VGC consensus put lifetime sales for Switch at 30-35m), but soon after the Switch launch I noticed that history is going to get revised, so I decided to keep a record of how things really were. The new goal is maintenance of truth on top of the original slap in the face.

I stand by my prediction. If I am wrong, so be it. This prediction the Switch will sell 100 million sales is rediculous. 

So you can call other people predictions ridiculous, but for you, people should be like "that's ok, mistakes happen"? This is not how things work.

Do yourself a favor and stop posting in anything related to switch sales prediction. It doesn't look good for you now and for the future will be worse. Unless you're doing this for attention, in that case, good job!



 

 

We reap what we sow

160rmf said:
barneystinson69 said:

I stand by my prediction. If I am wrong, so be it. This prediction the Switch will sell 100 million sales is rediculous. 

So you can call other people predictions ridiculous, but for you, people should be like "that's ok, mistakes happen"? This is not how things work.

Do yourself a favor and stop posting in anything related to switch sales prediction. It doesn't look good for you now and for the future will be worse. Unless you're doing this for attention, in that case, good job!

Being wrong and being rediculous are two very different things. What indication has proven the Switch will sell 100 million units? We're talking about PS4 sales here. Just a heads up, the Wii U and the 3DS COMBINED have done less than 80 million, and the 3DS has been on the market for almost 6 years. What makes you think that the Switch will go above and beyond that?



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

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Lol 60 mil at best. I predicted 40- 50 mil. Even with gta6, Ps4 will barely reach 100 mil.



Those who predict 100M for the Switch, I wonder how much they predicted for the PS4.



barneystinson69 said:
160rmf said:

So you can call other people predictions ridiculous, but for you, people should be like "that's ok, mistakes happen"? This is not how things work.

Do yourself a favor and stop posting in anything related to switch sales prediction. It doesn't look good for you now and for the future will be worse. Unless you're doing this for attention, in that case, good job!

Being wrong and being rediculous are two very different things. What indication has proven the Switch will sell 100 million units? We're talking about PS4 sales here. Just a heads up, the Wii U and the 3DS COMBINED have done less than 80 million, and the 3DS has been on the market for almost 6 years. What makes you think that the Switch will go above and beyond that?

And what indications are showing that it won't?

If gaming history had told us, you can't determine the system future by looking at previous devices.

BTW, your thread is the definition of a ridiculous prediction.



 

 

We reap what we sow

Shadow1980 said:
Anfebious said:

After cutting the Wii short (bad decision!) Nintendo learned their lesson

Well, Nintendo didn't have much of a choice. The Wii peaked in 2008 in the U.S. and Europe, and in 2010 sales declined from 2008 levels by 30% in the U.S. and 33% in Europe. In Japan, it peaked in 2007 and by 2009 its sales had dropped by nearly half. If they put more effort into supporting the Wii with big first-party titles, they may have staunched the bleed-out a little bit, but it would be delaying the inevitable by maybe a year, and Nintendo would still be feeling the pressure to replace the Wii with a new system. A system usually has dropped 40-50% from peak year sales the year before they're replaced. The Wii's sales trajectory was, when adjusted for the size of the system's install base, rather normal for a Nintendo console. In fact, the Wii lasted longer than the SNES, N64, and GC did before being replaced. But Nintendo was running out of people to sell the Wii to.

TL;DR, the Wii wasn't cut any shorter than any other Nintendo system. It had a rather normal life cycle for a post-SNES Nintendo console.

 

In any case, the Switch should do very well. 100 million is certainly possible, though far, far from guaranteed. I think 80M is a more reasonable estimate. The ultimate test for the Switch's sales potential in the long run will be if and when it becomes the home for main series Pokemon games. Assuming historical patterns hold, we'll probably see the first "Gen VIII" games debut exclusives on the Switch, with a new main series game followed by an enhanced remake of Diamond & Pearl sometime later. Those games will almost certaintly propel the Switch to new heights, but how high those heights are will give us a clue as to what the Switch will likely sell lifetime. Other important tests for the Switch will be whatever updated models are released, the effects of price cuts, and perhaps also other major software releases, most notably Super Mario, Mario Kart 9 (if we get one), and Smash 5.

Nintendo would have benefited a lot more in supporting the Wii rather than releasing the Wii U.

The bolded part is another reason to think the Switch can go beyond 100M. The system is doing great numbers while the price is still at it's "highest".  As for the software, it is clear that Nintendo is making an effort in pushing quality software this generation. The release of Breath of the Wild is the beggining, we can see they are on the right track.



"I've Underestimated the Horse Power from Mario Kart 8, I'll Never Doubt the WiiU's Engine Again"

160rmf said:
barneystinson69 said:

Being wrong and being rediculous are two very different things. What indication has proven the Switch will sell 100 million units? We're talking about PS4 sales here. Just a heads up, the Wii U and the 3DS COMBINED have done less than 80 million, and the 3DS has been on the market for almost 6 years. What makes you think that the Switch will go above and beyond that?

And what indications are showing that it won't?

If gaming history had told us, you can't determine the system future by looking at previous devices.

BTW, your thread is the definition of a ridiculous prediction.

That it had a strong launch, but it isn't blowing the world on fire. PS4 is already beating the Switch with one month of sales, so...



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).