When Splatoon 2 releases? Well, good luck with that...

"show me all the graphs of publicly accessible data you want, unless you logic and facts massage my feels you are wrong!"

That about sums up your reply.

Switch isn't an instance of that, though; they just legitimately are having trouble maintaining a supply. Their launch was the strongest they've ever had in the US and Europe, and it's doing surprisingly well in Japan as well. It was actually the 2nd strongest hardware launch in the US since 1995 in regard to total sales.

With the Amiibo also selling and their continued support of the 3DS line, I'm not really surprised that they're having trouble meeting demand. As was mentioned a week or so ago, Nintendo actually paid to have many consoles flown across the Pacific to increase supply (which reduces profits on those consoles to almost nil), so clearly they aren't trying to make the Switch intentionally scarce.

which would be a temporary release spike, as i stated.

Temporary spikes != baselines

Show me a credible graph for weeks 10-25-ish of PS4 sales, Xbox 1 sales and wii sales then i may begin to actually take you serious. Please in the meantime,   don't go applying for any sales analysts' position.

The supply vs demand contraint doesn't get solved by having less buyers, but by increasing the shipments. Which is what Sony did and what Nintendo is currently trying to do.

Also, your graph made me both laugh and facpalm. PS4 got launched during the holiday season, of course they had large supplies in stock for that occasion (every console manufacturer does, even when it's still supply constrained throughout the rest of the year, see the Wii), hence why the sales go up quickly again after the initial shipments have been sold. Nintendo didn't lauch during the holiday season, hence they didn't have a large stock in their backhand to react quicky (plus, the Wii U failure made them wary about overproduction).

Finally, why do you think the Switch sales will drop down so hard after a couple of months? Because Xbox ONE and PS4 dropped down after their 2 first months? They released during the holiday season ffs, of course sales drop down sharply in january when all the black friday deals and gifts have been made and done.

a launch is a launch, how many you can build and ship has nothing to do with how many you can sell unless you are specifically holding back supply to prevent the retail channel being overloaded, so either youre saying nintendo are artificially creating stock shortages or youre saying that companies can magically make more consoles for a launch if that launch is before a major holiday, either option is wrong.

its obvious that demand outstripped the capacity at which they were able to manufacture them, so using the time of year as an excuse means nothing, ashas been said before, you cant sell what you havent got, when your production capacity is below that of your sales capacity, arguing that they would "obvioisly sell more if it released before the holidays" is nonsensical, what exactly would they be selling? hopes and dreams? 

I'm saying neither, I say that for a holiday launch the companies keep huge stocks in reserve to quickly refill the stocks as they are supposed to sell much faster then compared to any other time of the year. I bolded that part in my previous post so you could see that I was saying that all along. If the Switch would have released during the hildays, you could be damn sure the console would have had a much bigger stock in reserve. But this stock was what made the Wii U so expensive for Nintendo. The huge stocks for holidays was the reason why the Wii U had to be stopped from production for several months, they kept a big reserve and when the console failed to sell simply reducing the production wouldn't have been enough to empty the halls clogging with unsold consoles in a reasonable timeframe

And like you're saying, demand is obviously outstripping the production for the Switch. Now explain me again why the Switch is supposed to drop to near Xbox ONE numbers. Why are you expecting the demand to drop by more than half? For what reason would it do so?

Right then, let's do exactly that rather than argue about it okay?

Observe:

As you'll see here, for all the consoles you asked for, including some extras, the first 8 weeks has always been chaotic, with the weekly sales usually stabalizing to within 10k-15k of the baseline for the first 6-8 months at the end of that cycle of instability, as previously asked, "but why are you suggesting that it will drop that much by july?, i've marked the point at which I believe a baseline will be achieved on the graph, it's way, WAY out there in terms of baseline stability, but given the excessive stock issues, I conservatively estimate that to be when an accurate baseline will be achieved though it will likely achieve it before then.

As for the "but what about splatoon/major releases" question, that does indeed effect the sales but it does not generally massively effect baselines, the release of titanfall along with a big console pricedrop for example, only really effected the weekly sales for a few weeks before a return to the baseline, even after the release of Wii Sports which had famously long legs, within a few weeks the weekly sales were returning back to a baseline.

I think the graph more than speaks for itself in terms of weekly baselines, all of which was calculated using weekly sales data from launch from VGchartz, so obviously not perfect, but close enough to illustrate the point clearly.

Now if we switch to totals rather than weeklies, we see relatively predictable curves, because we only have 4 usable weeks worth of sales data for the switch, the remainder has to be a projected estimate, for which I have done a median projection that uses the intial data as a guide, it could end up higher than that but at the same time it could end up lower, too, we won't know until the average baseline limit (week 8) is reached, however using the median projection, what we end up with is a weekly baseline that's in between that of the xbox one and PS4, still a great weekly rate, but obviously not sales maintaining the current weekly figures, which people seem to think it will retain.

The data does not support the idea of switch maintaining these figures beyond an aggressive, week 8, or conservative, week 18.

I wasn't expecting the Switch staying around 300k either, but going down close to 100k just seems too low for me. I'm expecting a baseline closer to 200k, especially since the Switch, as opposed to the Xbox ONE is selling well in every country, not just a handful of countries. Especially Japan, where I don't see the console drop much anytime soon from it's 40k+ sales