peachbuggy said:
Show me a credible graph for weeks 10-25-ish of PS4 sales, Xbox 1 sales and wii sales then i may begin to actually take you serious. Please in the meantime, don't go applying for any sales analysts' position. |
Right then, let's do exactly that rather than argue about it okay?
| Bofferbrauer said: Now explain me again why the Switch is supposed to drop to near Xbox ONE numbers. Why are you expecting the demand to drop by more than half? For what reason would it do so? |
Observe:
As you'll see here, for all the consoles you asked for, including some extras, the first 8 weeks has always been chaotic, with the weekly sales usually stabalizing to within 10k-15k of the baseline for the first 6-8 months at the end of that cycle of instability, as previously asked, "but why are you suggesting that it will drop that much by july?, i've marked the point at which I believe a baseline will be achieved on the graph, it's way, WAY out there in terms of baseline stability, but given the excessive stock issues, I conservatively estimate that to be when an accurate baseline will be achieved though it will likely achieve it before then.
As for the "but what about splatoon/major releases" question, that does indeed effect the sales but it does not generally massively effect baselines, the release of titanfall along with a big console pricedrop for example, only really effected the weekly sales for a few weeks before a return to the baseline, even after the release of Wii Sports which had famously long legs, within a few weeks the weekly sales were returning back to a baseline.
I think the graph more than speaks for itself in terms of weekly baselines, all of which was calculated using weekly sales data from launch from VGchartz, so obviously not perfect, but close enough to illustrate the point clearly.
Now if we switch to totals rather than weeklies, we see relatively predictable curves, because we only have 4 usable weeks worth of sales data for the switch, the remainder has to be a projected estimate, for which I have done a median projection that uses the intial data as a guide, it could end up higher than that but at the same time it could end up lower, too, we won't know until the average baseline limit (week 8) is reached, however using the median projection, what we end up with is a weekly baseline that's in between that of the xbox one and PS4, still a great weekly rate, but obviously not sales maintaining the current weekly figures, which people seem to think it will retain.
The data does not support the idea of switch maintaining these figures beyond an aggressive, week 8, or conservative, week 18.
