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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware (04/01/17)

Switch seems to definitely be on a decline, with its sales slowly leveling out. It'll have maybe another week ahead of PS4 for worldwide, and a month more if better sales in US. Once the dust settles for MK8 and Splatoon 2, summer I think is going to be a heavy sales slump for Switch, and fall through the holidays will be total PS4 domination.



0331 Happiness is a belt-fed weapon

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StarDoor said:
Kerotan said:
Ps4 catching up!

How can it be catching up if it's selling fewer units?

 I think he means that the amount Switch is outselling PS4 by is shrinking. Switch will continue to outsell PS4 for long. In fact, seeing as were a third of the way through May, most likely PS4 started outselling Switch WW at least 3 weeks ago. 

 



0331 Happiness is a belt-fed weapon

NATO said:
LipeJJ said:

Only read your first posts when you said it would be a bit above Xbox One levels, which right now would be something like 120k, that's why I said at least 150k, because from 100k to 150k there is a big gap. Anyway, we can up the game and bet on 200k, which I'm still pretty sure it will achieve.

So you're saying if it drops below 150k you lose?, or are you going to chicken out and blame supply constraints if that happens?

See, the thing is, if my estimates are wrong, then I don't really lose, another strong selling console on the market is a good thing, and it means the console is more likely to get more games, and that tracking the sales data will be a little more interesting, but that's the benefit of not being emotionally invested in whether or not it succeeds, i just make my estimates based on the data we have, and that data has, without fail, shown that the first 8 weeks are always erratic and higher than the baseline significantly, as the switches sales current are and will be.

And as with every data driven estimate, the more accurate the data the better the estimate, so as each weeks sales data come in, the estimate will no doubt change to reflect that, as good data always should.

Still, I'm fairly confident that it will reach a level between 100k and 150k, so you're on.

I look forward to seeing what your forfeit will be when you undoubtedly lose:)   you won't accept the voices of this reason on this site, even when 3+ are telling you that your "predictions" are totally wack. The thing is, most people make predictiions based on facts.Meanwhile you base yours on hope and try to "massage your graphs" accordingly. Maybe after you take your forfeit you will learn.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

peachbuggy said:

 

I look forward to seeing what your forfeit will be when you undoubtedly lose:)   you won't accept the voices of this reason on this site, even when 3+ are telling you that your "predictions" are totally wack. The thing is, most people make predictiions based on facts.Meanwhile you base yours on hope and try to "massage your graphs" accordingly. Maybe after you take your forfeit you will learn.

bullshit, you asked for the graphs to a specific duration and with specific consoles because you thought it might show something in your favor, i even went above and beyond and put the time in making the scope wider and stating clearly how i came to my predictions using data anyone here can verify from this very sites data, theres no "massaging" of anything, the graphs are clear and accurate, the only one here pedalling "hope" is you, because even when you moved the goalposts requesting the graph data beyond what i initially posted you didnt like the fact that it revealed my predictions to be accurate.



curl-6 said:

Wii had a pretty decent opening year; launched with Twilight Princess, Wii Sports, and Excite Truck, and in its first twelve months got Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime 3, Fire Emblem Radiant Dawn, Super Paper Mario, Medal of Honor, Zack & Wiki, Battalion Wars 2, Trauma Center...

Stop telling lies, curl. All the Wii got was PurrPals.

OT: Nice to see people freaking out over Nintendo's successes again.



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DialgaMarine said:
Switch seems to definitely be on a decline, with its sales slowly leveling out. It'll have maybe another week ahead of PS4 for worldwide, and a month more if better sales in US. Once the dust settles for MK8 and Splatoon 2, summer I think is going to be a heavy sales slump for Switch, and fall through the holidays will be total PS4 domination.

This is based on what, exactly? It's actually pretty hard to predict any trends on the switch, given that whatever supply available is literally sold out in hours!



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

DialgaMarine said:
Switch seems to definitely be on a decline, with its sales slowly leveling out. It'll have maybe another week ahead of PS4 for worldwide, and a month more if better sales in US. Once the dust settles for MK8 and Splatoon 2, summer I think is going to be a heavy sales slump for Switch, and fall through the holidays will be total PS4 domination.

It took about a year for Splatoon to settle it's dust. Also, Skyrim and Fire Emblem Warriors releasing during Summer should additionally keep the sales going.

Not that I think it won't slump a bit, but not nearly as much as you might think it will.



NATO said:
peachbuggy said:

I look forward to seeing what your forfeit will be when you undoubtedly lose:)   you won't accept the voices of this reason on this site, even when 3+ are telling you that your "predictions" are totally wack. The thing is, most people make predictiions based on facts.Meanwhile you base yours on hope and try to "massage your graphs" accordingly. Maybe after you take your forfeit you will learn.

bullshit, you asked for the graphs to a specific duration and with specific consoles because you thought it might show something in your favor, i even went above and beyond and put the time in making the scope wider and stating clearly how i came to my predictions using data anyone here can verify from this very sites data, theres no "massaging" of anything, the graphs are clear and accurate, the only one here pedalling "hope" is you, because even when you moved the goalposts requesting the graph data beyond what i initially posted you didnt like the fact that it revealed my predictions to be accurate.

Tbh the graphs were so small i couldn't even see the figures. Again, your projections are based on hope, what actual evidence do you have to predict the switch will fall into a baseline under the ps4? Especially when sales are purely related to stock atm. Whatever comes into the retail channel is sold out within literally hours and i don't see that changing any time soon.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

DialgaMarine said:
Switch seems to definitely be on a decline, with its sales slowly leveling out. It'll have maybe another week ahead of PS4 for worldwide, and a month more if better sales in US. Once the dust settles for MK8 and Splatoon 2, summer I think is going to be a heavy sales slump for Switch, and fall through the holidays will be total PS4 domination.
DialgaMarine said:
StarDoor said:

How can it be catching up if it's selling fewer units?

 I think he means that the amount Switch is outselling PS4 by is shrinking. Switch will continue to outsell PS4 for long. In fact, seeing as were a third of the way through May, most likely PS4 started outselling Switch WW at least 3 weeks ago. 

But that's a ridiculous statement. The PS4 already outsold the Switch in its 2nd and 3rd weeks, after which the Switch started selling more. If anything, it's the Switch that caught up, not the PS4.

This thread is for the week ending April 1st, in which the Switch sold 278k. But the Switch sold less in both its second and third weeks (235k and 237k). The only "decline" is from its fourth week to its fifth week. Essentially, you're saying that the Switch is "on a decline" because of a single week of sales, and this week (April 1st) that you're proclaiming decline from (278k) is still much higher than the other two weeks.

Furthermore, the PS4 usually sees a significant drop in sales during April, so for your prediction to be true, the Switch must have a baseline somewhere below 180k during April.

http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2014&end_year=2017&console=PS4

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/42470/Global/

Of course, we actually have data all throughout April for the Switch in Japan, which shows that there has been no drop-off in sales at all. The week ending April 2nd (45.5k) is actually lower than the week ending May 7th (47.9k).

The Switch sold 278.4k worldwide in the week ending April 1st. So you must expect the Switch to have a heavy decline in the rest of the world, even though there's been no decline in Japan at all.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=226216&page=1

In addition, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe released at the end of April. Even if the Switch started having lower weeks, which is already unlikely from Japan's data, it's undoubtedly above the PS4 for the week ending April 29th; it's certainly not continuous, like you're stated.



peachbuggy said:

 

Tbh the graphs were so small i couldn't even see the figures. Again, your projections are based on hope, what actual evidence do you have to predict the switch will fall into a baseline under the ps4? Especially when sales are purely related to stock atm. Whatever comes into the retail channel is sold out within literally hours and i don't see that changing any time soon.

you're not worth any further effort, i'll let the reality of the next few months of sales data educate you instead.