Wii U. Worldwide, that system sold just over 3 million units by the end of 2012

and Wii U came out Nov 18. basically December.

so 3 million in 1 months. Then the wii U went on to being the worst selling console of all time.

So the switch launch numbers dont mean much...because nintendo fans go hard out the gate!

We had the same narrative with the same arguments for years that the Wii U is the "perfect second console".

For the current cycle I don't see it being all that exciting; PS4 > Switch > Xbox one

Sony is oneish generation away from removing Microsoft from the dedicated console space. Microsoft will leave from a combination of better overall harmony from Sony (Japanese, Western, A, AA, AAA titles, more exclusives, Indie support, affordable comparable to high-end PC gaming) and Microsoft upper brash/shareholders demanding them to leave due to low margin returns.

Near future (2021, I see them entering Gen 9 late , akin to the PS2 entering well after the dreamcast) With Microsoft out the way (or on its last legs) and Nintendo out of the dedicated home console space and the AAA gaming space, Playstation will have monopoly status for the home console market (its only competitor being PC...and Playstation will still command 80/20 market share) so it'll be a war against Sony's monopoly home machine vs Nintendo 1st party handheld machine, as i see Sony trying to erode Nintendo handheld space somehow.

Scorpio at $500, Switch at $300
PS4 > XBOne = Switch (XBONE will probably outsell Switch by a bit probably because One S will get a holiday reduction)

Scorpio at $400, Switch at $300
PS4>XBOne>Switch

Scorpio at $500, Switch at $250 (or ideally $200)
PS4>Switch>XBOne

WRONG. Your numbers are way off. Heres 2 articles proving my numbers. and if someone can get the vgchartz from back then it will also prove you wrong.

 Read this https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2017/03/dont-read-too-much-into-the-switchs-successful-launch-numbers/

or Wiki

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii_U#Launch

3.06 milion worldwide by dec 31, 2012. 

I remember it well as i am a day 1 wii U buyer! from on here it was the same numbers.

so my prediction is not stupid its spot on. 25 million in 5 years is reasonable for the switch. 

That "3.06 million worldwide by Dec 31, 2012" is shipped, not sold.  Says so right there in the link you provided.

Rol is correct; around 2m sell-through by Dec 31, 2012.  It took MONTHS for WiiU to sell through the rest of that initial shipment.

3.06 million shipments. According to VgChartz hardware sales, the Wii U only sold a bit over 2 million units in 2012.

And even the Wii U did sell 3.06 million copies in its first two months, your prediction would still be rather stupid, because these 60 million+ 3DS owners won't simply stop buying Nintendo consoles (why would they?).

Nintendo certainly has the edge in terms of exclusives catering to a bigger audience, but I wouldn't say that women are barely served on Playstation in general. There are millions of women who play games like GTA, Overwatch, Mass Effect, Uncharted and really most of the biggest franchises. Any women who play on console with a wide range of taste will likely get both, unless she's American in which case she may get Xbox. But the more casual (for want of a better word) female crowd will be more likely to go Nintendo, sure. But how many people is that? There is a reason that 18-35 males is the main target demographic after all.

As for the risks of new IPs, well the same arguments could have been said before the start of the current gen, and while I think it would be nice to have more, there has been a really decent number of new IPs on PS that have done well for themselves. For Sony specifically, they have tried to go for a wider demographic in terms of exclusives, but success has been infrequent and hasn't led to long term IP growth (like LittleBigPlanet). They are making Dreams right now, which is in the same vein, but by and large they seem content to let indies and mid tier studios fill in those blanks, which seems to be doing ok for them. 

Overall, I think Nintendo have better IPs than Sony, that can sustain a successful console by themselves, as long as they are used well, anything else is a bonus. Sony can't, although they do have a healthy first-party portfolio right now. They need third parties to help elevate them to the heights of really big hardware numbers. And I think that that will continue to be the case, and Sony will see similiar numbers next gen to this (with the ceiling being around 100m). Nintendo will do well, because they will have Mario Kart, Zelda, 3D Mario, Splatoon, Animal Crossing, Pokemon etc all on one system. I see Nintendo and Playstation coexisting with big hardware numbers for several years or more, while Xbox struggles in the background and possibly even slide off into irrelevance, apart from the US perhaps

I said this in another forum, but I believe it applies here as well.

While I would say it is too early to tell. The numbers you are reporting are incorrect. If you look at Nintendo's IR data from Jan 2013, they indicated they shipped 3 million units but VGChartz data indicates that they sold around 2 million (if you remeber right after November, there was an issue, particularly in the UK where no one was buying remaining units). In addition, nearly all systems perform relatively strongly out the gate, and some drop off for a while after but are revived late (PS3 and 3DS come to mind). You are making a huge assumption based on a single system as well as the assumption that Nintendo will not respond with marketing tools like price cuts should the system start to linger (early price cuts within the first 6 months helped boost the sales of N64, GC, GBA, DS, and 3DS when they started to linger after their respective launches). 

nah man, atari gonna crash in and make a new console and monopolize this shit again