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Forums - Sales - The Switch launch numbers are meaningless

archbrix said:

That's not true at all about PS2's launch being rather unimpressive:

https://www.ign.com/articles/2000/11/07/sony-pulls-in-over-250-million-at-launch

As you said, PS2 was completely supply constrained.  It would have steamrolled the Dreamcast immediately had the units been there.  That massive launch day for the PS2 in the US was the single biggest consumer product launch in dollars by far at the time - far exceeding the Dreamcast, which itself had just tripled the last biggest.  

I agree that "sold out" at launch doesn't mean much without context, but it's quite different when we know the huge numbers with PS2/PS4/PS5 right out of the gate, just like we already know of the 6m-8m pre-orders for Switch 2 (if true).  Game systems with those kinds of launch sellouts are a pretty good indicator of success I'd say.  They could very well decline and not live up to their potential, but they're not just going to collapse.

That's revenue for North America as a whole, and it includes games and accessories. Yes, $250M is a lot of money, so it was successful, and it handily beat the Dreamcast's launch in dollar terms (it helps that the PS2 was $300 at launch compared to $200 for the DC). But in terms of hardware unit sales the PS2's launch wasn't anything special:

To be fair, the NPD Group tracking sales on a monthly basis means launch months could contain any of a number of days. The PS2 was only available for three days of its launch month, the latest in the sales month of any console on the chart. However, if Japan sales data is any indication, sales will typically experience a big drop in the second week, and what happens in the following weeks depends on proximity to the holiday season, so the bulk of the other system's sales were likely in the first sales week, so the PS2 isn't dramatically disadvantaged in this comparison.

For example, the PS4 sold one million units in its first 24 hours in the U.S. & Canada. Assuming the U.S. was 90% of that million (NPD data shows the PS4 sold just over 2M in the U.S. in 2013, while CESA data shows it sold ~200k in Canada), that means in just its first day it sold ~900k in the U.S., which leaves ~240 for the remaining 14 days of the Nov. 2013 sales period.

In any case, the PS2 sold less in 66 days in the U.S. than the PS4 did in 15 days. Yet despite the slow start it still retains the top spot for a conventional console in the U.S., and third place overall behind the Switch and DS. I imagine if there was enough supply to meet demand the PS2 very well could have pulled off a 1M launch month and probably well over 2M for the entirety of Q2 2000. Once supply issues were resolved, it went on to have by far the best first year of any system ever in the U.S. at that point (it still holds the #2 spot, having been beaten only by the Wii, and only by a very slim margin).

BTW, that 6M+ projection for the Switch 2 comes from analysts cited in a Bloomberg article. If true, that would smash all previous records for a system launch. Even if that projection is overblown, it could still set a new record anyway. That would show that, at least for early adopters, $450 for the system and $70-80 for many of its games are not a big barrier to entry.



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I do wonder how consumers will respond to the 450$ price tag of Switch 2. While the argument that Switch 1 would be close to the same price of 450$ if it released in 2025 due to inflation is true, to average consumers I don't think they notice that even as incomes increase with inflation, they just view it as more expensive straight up then even the 300$ Switch they saw in 2017. A good part of Switch's sales also are from 2nd purchases, it's gonna be harder to pull that off with a higher price tag like this.

At the same time tho, the Switch Oled was 350$ and still outsold the other cheaper Switch's. Of course alot of that could be 2nd purchases, but it shows that when it comes to the Switch the consumers are less price sensitive and will be willing to spend anything to play on Switch.



Shadow1980 said:

random, but i just noticed that DC had a bigger U.S. launch month than PS2….that’s wild lol. (tho technically this is comparing several weeks of DC sales to only a few days of PS2.)



Nintendo president Furukawa stated that the big challenge for Switch 2 will not be the launch period but to make the Switch 2 sell well after launch as well. He is worried that the price will impact continued sales of the Switch 2.



Sephiran said:

 He is worried that the price will impact continued sales of the Switch 2.

I am a little bit worried too judging by my personal experiences. The Switch is still quite popular around here, but all the friends of my son don't even dare to think about getting one. It is just too expensive for them and their parents. I also don't know anyone from my adult friends who wants to get one in the near future. Most folks do see the price as justified given the specs and all. But they still don't want to pay that kind of money for an additional console. 

Sure, it's all anecdotal, but I do feel certain vibes and I don't think it's impossible that we will see a quick price cut, maybe to 399 just for psychological reasons. 299 would still be the sweet spot, but that obviously won't happen in this day and age as Nintendo refuses to take a hit on hardware sales.

But anyway, I'm still hyped and I will enjoy that console no matter how high or low the sales will be. =D



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firebush03 said:

random, but i just noticed that DC had a bigger U.S. launch month than PS2….that’s wild lol. (tho technically this is comparing several weeks of DC sales to only a few days of PS2.)

That's why I prefer how sales are tracked in Japan. Weekly sales give better granularity than monthly sales, which means more accurate comparisons of launches, better determination the impacts of price cuts, software releases, etc., on sales.

Still, even if you take into account the fact it launched earlier in its launch month, the DC did have a pretty good launch. I was able to find some data points for its sales at various points during its launch window.

It sold 372k in its first four days, not much less than the 391k the PS2 sold in its first three days. The 569k units it sold in the 25 days it was available during its launch month was only slightly less than the 579k the PS2 sold in its first 31 days (the last 3 days of October and the 28 days of the November sales period). It sold almost as many units in Oct. 1999 as the PS2 did in Nov. 2000, which indicates that it was having similar post-launch momentum. Not bad, all things considered, though I imagine the PS2 would have had a much, much better launch if there wasn't a supply shortage.

The bottom chart illustrates the importance of more granular sales data, as well as the point I made in my previous post that sales in the U.S. almost certainly follow a similar pattern to Japan, where nearly every system exhibits a big launch week followed by a steep decline towards a baseline (the exceptions are typically systems launched in December where holidays sales pump the brakes on that post-launch decline). Within four days, the DC had sold 372k units, 225k (over 60%) of which was just day one. It sold only 142k in the ten days from Day 5 to Day 14, and in the eleven days after that it sold only 55k. So, nearly two-thirds of its sales in its launch month came from just the first four days. This shows how front-loaded the sales were during its launch month, which is why it isn't terribly advantaged when compared to the PS2.



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Art by Hunter B

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

https://www.reddit.com/r/NintendoSwitch/comments/1l50wqa/switch_2_making_sales_history_moving_3_million/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Handhelds/comments/1l52yb6/apparently_nintendo_sold_3_million_switch_2_units/

Switch 2 sold more than 3 million units on the launch day.

Three times more than PS4.