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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Kimishima expects Switch sales to reach Wii levels

The market has moved on, I think even if the Switch had got everything right with performance, software and pricing I think it wouldn't be possible and as it is I think the first version's sales will drop considerably after the first few months and in some markets will not do well even for launch numbers.

Take off the rose tinted spectacles and its a horrible product to be honest. Too bulky with too short a battery life the complete opposite design philosophy to its most successful portables. It's more like Nintendo's version of Sony's more bulky and less practical PSP and Vita models which always struggled because of their inconvenient size and constant need to recharge. Trying to fill the void of its home console business has resulted in a compromised design for both portable and home use but luckily the future will allow for a decent Switch portable in a few years as fabrication technology improves and we will look back laughing at how awful this mk1 version is.

I also think for those who actually buy them there will be a struggle to keep them with the format at current pricing. Zelda looks amazing but the rest of the software looks weak to say the least especially if you are coming from wii u and have played the wii u versions already. To me it seems like you play Zelda and then you wait for Mario Odyssey. I see big things for Switch in something like 2019 but a train wreck before hand.

The one thing that is a spanner in the works is Nvidia. They have a long history of being aggressively profiteering and wouldn't reduce royalties in the past making the original xbox too expensive later in life so had to be abandoned and replaced with xbox 360 sooner rather than later and other issues with other companies. It may simply not be possible to bring Switch pricing down and Nintendo may be forced to abandon the Switch platform.

Sometimes I wonder if Nintendo get a good deal. They complained about the cost of the wii u yet the wii u is full of weak components that shouldn't have much value. Is it just marketing/PR when they say that or have they genuinely paid well above market value for such components because they are poor at resourcing components and getting a good deal. They complained about the cost of the gamepad but its an abysmal spec even for 2012. This could be another factor. Getting in bed with Nvidia does sort of reveal a naivety with their past history.



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It's entirely possible.
Kimishima knows his numbers. As I said in another thread: Nintendo is an integrated company. Integrated companies thrive whenever technology in a certain market is not "good enough" yet. With the Wii U Nintendo made the horrible mistake of pursuing technology that was already good enough (we have TVs, handhelds, tablets, smartphones... who asked for a streaming tablet device? Nobody). Same with the 3DS (nobody said "our screens aren't immersive enough. Give us 3D!").

With the Switch Nintendo is back in "technology not yet good enough" land (motion controls and hybrid system) and the games cater to the mass market again. Gen 8 was Nintendo's worst generation and even now they have an install base approaching 75m units.

People make the mistake of looking at Wii U sales and then using them as an anchor to predict Switch sales. This is called an "anchoring effect" and it is shown to be one of the big logical mistakes humans make when making predictions. It's fascinating, go look it up! In reality, the gaming market has huge volatility: Console makers went from 25 to 75m (Microsoft), 22 to 100m (Nintendo), 150 to 80m (Sony) in gen 7 and then from 100m to 13m (Nintendo) and from 80 to 15m (Sony handhelds). Also, people totally forget about the 3DS which will sell more than 70m units lifetime.

So again: It's possible the Switch will hit Wii numbers.



He should aim for PS2 level at last close to it. Because SONY is trying to surpass PS2 sales level with PS4.



It's nice to want things.



Wii levels? Something the ps4 with its massive success still has not reached?.

Okek Nintendo dream on.



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

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Louie said:
It's entirely possible.
Kimishima knows his numbers. As I said in another thread: Nintendo is an integrated company. Integrated companies thrive whenever technology in a certain market is not "good enough" yet. With the Wii U Nintendo made the horrible mistake of pursuing technology that was already good enough (we have TVs, handhelds, tablets, smartphones... who asked for a streaming tablet device? Nobody). Same with the 3DS (nobody said "our screens aren't immersive enough. Give us 3D!").

With the Switch Nintendo is back in "technology not yet good enough" land (motion controls and hybrid system) and the games cater to the mass market again. Gen 8 was Nintendo's worst generation and even now they have an install base approaching 75m units.

People make the mistake of looking at Wii U sales and then using them as an anchor to predict Switch sales. This is called an "anchoring effect" and it is shown to be one of the big logical mistakes humans make when making predictions. It's fascinating, go look it up! In reality, the gaming market has huge volatility: Console makers went from 25 to 75m (Microsoft), 22 to 100m (Nintendo), 150 to 80m (Sony) in gen 7 and then from 100m to 13m (Nintendo) and from 80 to 15m (Sony handhelds). Also, people totally forget about the 3DS which will sell more than 70m units lifetime.

So again: It's possible the Switch will hit Wii numbers.

I'm not sure about your second sentence:

During Nintendo’s investor’s meeting, Nintendo President Tatsumi Kimishima revealed that at the start, Nintendo had actually expected the Wii U to go on to sell 100 million units, simply because the Wii had sold as many.

http://www.ubergizmo.com/2016/07/nintendo-expected-100m-wii-u-sold/



Louie said:
It's entirely possible.
Kimishima knows his numbers. As I said in another thread: Nintendo is an integrated company. Integrated companies thrive whenever technology in a certain market is not "good enough" yet. With the Wii U Nintendo made the horrible mistake of pursuing technology that was already good enough (we have TVs, handhelds, tablets, smartphones... who asked for a streaming tablet device? Nobody). Same with the 3DS (nobody said "our screens aren't immersive enough. Give us 3D!").

With the Switch Nintendo is back in "technology not yet good enough" land (motion controls and hybrid system) and the games cater to the mass market again. Gen 8 was Nintendo's worst generation and even now they have an install base approaching 75m units.

People make the mistake of looking at Wii U sales and then using them as an anchor to predict Switch sales. This is called an "anchoring effect" and it is shown to be one of the big logical mistakes humans make when making predictions. It's fascinating, go look it up! In reality, the gaming market has huge volatility: Console makers went from 25 to 75m (Microsoft), 22 to 100m (Nintendo), 150 to 80m (Sony) in gen 7 and then from 100m to 13m (Nintendo) and from 80 to 15m (Sony handhelds). Also, people totally forget about the 3DS which will sell more than 70m units lifetime.

So again: It's possible the Switch will hit Wii numbers.

I don't think many are making that mistake. Nintendo are promoting Switch as a home console but really it is a portable so if anyone is doing that it is with 3DS not wii u. The reason many people are predicting  Switch failure is the product itself, what its capable of, what games are going to be available and its value. It just isn't very good and relies on loyalty of the Nintendo fanbase to make a sale which are limited in number. We shall see though, sometimes Nintendo pull out a X factor that can sell a poor product at an inflated price but I personally think the odds are stacked against it.



bonzobanana said:
Louie said:

I don't think many are making that mistake. Nintendo are promoting Switch as a home console but really it is a portable so if anyone is doing that it is with 3DS not wii u. The reason many people are predicting  Switch failure is the product itself, what its capable of, what games are going to be available and its value. It just isn't very good and relies on loyalty of the Nintendo fanbase to make a sale which are limited in number. We shall see though, sometimes Nintendo pull out a X factor that can sell a poor product at an inflated price but I personally think the odds are stacked against it.

I think most people make that mistake. We had a thread here on VGChartz and I think 25% of people voted the Switch would sell less than 20m units. Anchoring effects are really interesting and they happen unconsciously all the time. If you ask people a question while spinning a random "wheel of fortune" they'll use the number the wheel shows as an anchor to answer whatever question you just asked them (I'm not even kidding, it's so much fun to use people as guinea pigs for this stuff! lol)

Bolded: That's my point actually. The Switch (as a motion control and hybrid device) is in some way a disruptive product, a "crappy product for crappy costumers". You just gave the textbook definition basically. Core gamers wonder "what's the appeal of this console?" because core gamers demand better technology. Nintendo is an integrated company though, they sell when they concentrate on technology that isn't yet "good enough", which is exactly what the Switch is. I totally understand why core gamers don't see the value of the Switch! But those people who bought a Wii (another console core gamers didn't value) are very interested in the Switch: They want local multiplayer, mass market games, don't care about graphics and want an inviting looking console.

Oh and I don't claim the Switch is definitely going to sell well by the way. Nintendo screwed up so royally with the Wii U and 3DS I can totally see them screwing this up again somehow. I'm just saying it's possible. It's a personal thing for me: I was a big fan of the Wii and then Nintendo just stopped serving me and my friends as customers (we regularly had gaming sessions with up to 10 people during the Wii days, with lots of girls and casual gamers playing together with the more experienced gamers of our group). I love my PS4 Slim and my Vita because they serve a different puropse but I dislike the Wii U and hardly ever play games on it. So me coming back to this forum after years of absence just shows you the Wii crowd is still alive and wants another console. The question is: Can Nintendo deliver? Can they regain the trust of the Wii customers after the Wii U? The jury is still out on that one. 



Lawlight said:
Louie said:

I'm not sure about your second sentence:

During Nintendo’s investor’s meeting, Nintendo President Tatsumi Kimishima revealed that at the start, Nintendo had actually expected the Wii U to go on to sell 100 million units, simply because the Wii had sold as many.

http://www.ubergizmo.com/2016/07/nintendo-expected-100m-wii-u-sold/

Haha got me there. I'll be honest, I have no idea what kind of stuff Nintendo was smoking back during the early 2010's. It was obvious the Wii U was a bad product nobody asked for right from the start and that Wii customers wouldn't transition to it. I think they simply became arrogant and thought they couldn't do no wrong, kinda like Sony at the start of gen 7. But I think (just like Sony) they had a healthy dose of reality shoved down their throats with the Wii U and 3DS. They (hopefully) don't live in La-La-Land anymore. Of course they could still screw things up (see my response to bonzobanana) but if they play their cards right (and stay away from that weed) the Switch can be a big success. 



They are definitely very optimistic, I like that. :D