Just because someone sees a switch they're not going to automatically want one. And L /O/ L at you saying theirs no problem of paying a online service because of elite.

3DS is successful because it has a good library not because of price the actual price cut didn't change the sales it was the release of games months later that did that. 3DS didn't launch with anything on the level of Zelda either, 3DS owners will see Switch as a massive leap over the platform and a successor to a great platform.

The is also one factor that works in Switch's favour, what alternative is the for a dedicated gaming portable device, the common argument of tablets and mobiles doesn't hold ground because they don't offer the same type of experience, Vita and 3DS owners only have one choice if they're to continue portable gaming.

After today, I am having a hard time seeing Switch selling any more than 30 Million units, and have a very serious feeling that it could struggle to pass 15 Million. It will sell well at launch, but I see a sharp decline, followed by a slow summer, and a decent holiday followed by a very slow 2018. Nothing shown today gave me any indication that this will do well in the mass market/ casuals. It sang right to Nintendos base, and maybe gave some older gamers an itch to jump back into Nintendo for the first time since Gamecube or N64.

All in all, I think Switch will be slightly more successful than WiiU, due to striking a cord with old Nintendo gamers, and being an optional upgrade for some 3DS users. However, I think it will weaken Nintendos dedicated handhelds, much, much more than it will help their home market. I think it all leads to Nintendos hardware usebase shrinking even more in the next 3 years.

Sure, if it has enough games. If not, I don't think anything's going to save it. It lacks a killer app for casuals that Wii had.

Who's carrying that beast outside?

pls take a look again at 3ds early months. It was start selling after nintendo reduced its price in 2nd quarter of 2011. Then it increased its sale like crazy again shortly after pokemon sales. and unlike switch, 3ds actually has backward compatibility. 3ds was backed by nds enormous library. Which part of switch again indicates it will have the same success with 3ds?

I'm now really sure people buy a 3DS because they see others playing it. 3DS is for a certain market(s), kids, hardcore gamers and Pokemon fans. If the general public see a 3DS, they are fascinated by the 3D but after that I don't think many went out a purchased one for just that one gimmick.

I get your point, don't get me wrong. but don't think it'll happen. Switch's success will be that of people already know they want it and later, good games are released on it. Like any other console, if it goes for the gimmick thing, it could sell crap loads like the Wii or very few (in comparison) like the Wii U.

Just stick to their market (those who want a console which can be used both on the go and at home, you know the tablet buying market and families) and they'll do well.

I think you should take your own advice as 3DS didn't start selling until SM3DL and MK7 arrived, you know what happened with the price cut, a 2 week spike then sales went back down to the same level it wasn't until months later when these games arrived that it started selling. BC obviously wasn't that much of a draw by your own admission through your argument as 3DS didn't sell as well with it and had to wait until the worth while 3DS games release to start selling, people could buy a DS for far cheaper if they wanted to play DS games.

What part of Switch indicates success lets see, only dedicated gaming portable with no competition in that area, unified library, only platform Nintendo would be focused on, better first 12 month line up than both predecessors, covers 2 markets in the portable and home markets, much clearer concept than previous platforms, far better reception than previous platforms with even social media being hugely positive on the platform and returning to the broader approach.

You sure it's mainly because of those games and not because it's holiday time and pokemon b/w2 releasing in earlier that year? At that time, there's no way ppl would prefer nds over 3ds when 3ds was only 50$ more expensive (after price cut) and future proof (and could play any ds game).

point is BC alone was not enough to sell 3ds. Heck even iwata himself admitted that 3ds launch sale was disappointing. I agree 3ds has great library, but it started to become good years after 3ds release date. Now back to switch, it repeats all the mistake that 3ds made: high price, weak hardware, joke battery life, joke memory size, okayish launch titles, and this time it's even worse: no BC.

and what does unified library even mean to me as a customer? this guarantees nothing. I mean, just look at Switch launch titles. wiiu port and bunch of reskin games. Social media was also hugely positive abt Clinton, but we all knw the election didnt agree with social media.

Pokemon B/W2 released in Q4 2012 almost 2 years after  the launch of the 3DS and a year after the games I mentioned turned things around, even MH3U released with the games I mentioned a year prior to B/W2 :? 

3DS' library became good late 2011 and early 2012 with 3DL, MK7, MH3U, Kingdom Hearts 3D etc... This is around 10 months in not years later.

Unified library means as a consumer you don't need to buy 2 Nintendo platforms like you did before to enjoy the full library, everything is on one platform only no matter the game whether Pokemon or Zelda. You're mistaking the news for social media, actual social media had Trump and Clinton supportors battling back and fourth.