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After today, I am having a hard time seeing Switch selling any more than 30 Million units, and have a very serious feeling that it could struggle to pass 15 Million. It will sell well at launch, but I see a sharp decline, followed by a slow summer, and a decent holiday followed by a very slow 2018. Nothing shown today gave me any indication that this will do well in the mass market/ casuals. It sang right to Nintendos base, and maybe gave some older gamers an itch to jump back into Nintendo for the first time since Gamecube or N64.

All in all, I think Switch will be slightly more successful than WiiU, due to striking a cord with old Nintendo gamers, and being an optional upgrade for some 3DS users. However, I think it will weaken Nintendos dedicated handhelds, much, much more than it will help their home market. I think it all leads to Nintendos hardware usebase shrinking even more in the next 3 years.



Stop hate, let others live the life they were given. Everyone has their problems, and no one should have to feel ashamed for the way they were born. Be proud of who you are, encourage others to be proud of themselves. Learn, research, absorb everything around you. Nothing is meaningless, a purpose is placed on everything no matter how you perceive it. Discover how to love, and share that love with everything that you encounter. Help make existence a beautiful thing.

Kevyn B Grams
10/03/2010 

KBG29 on PSN&XBL