90%of the sales then. Also bundled games dont count.

omg if there is even a 25 dollar ps4 price drop..the will turn the 25 million gap into 30 or 40

Admitted?  I gotta say I'm kind of confused.  I didn't say anything about whether XBox One sales would be up or down in the first place, yet you're acting as though I'm "admitting" to something.  And I don't even understand what it meanst to "admit XB1 down YOY".  Did I have some inside knowledge from the future that I was hiding?  

I'm also not sure what word play jokes you saw.  O_o... 

The PSVR was fairly available for most of october (I know I looked) and sales were basically flat for PS4 week over week and year over year.  It could be selling more with better supply, but it's not like a PS2/Wii/NES Classic situation where there are tons of people desperately waiting.

It's clearly not a system seller like Kinect, which begs the question of why the PS4 will be up big YOY.  PSVR and Pro both seem like relatively niche products, and the price was already dropped effectively 50 dollars this holiday season.  Another pricecut will help somewhat, if Sony does one, but it isn't going to be that much bigger.

So, the games lineup will have to be enough not only to overcome the natural decline in sales, but also push out a few million more units.  If you're predicting sales of about 20 million, the games have to basically be 4-5 million hardware sales better than last year's, and they really aren't.

It can do 10m+ just not with the same frequency, imo.

Isn't that upto November? Doesn't sound ridiculous.

3m sounded low.

PS = 20m

PS2 = 27m

PS3 = 15m (+4m for prologue)

I don't see GT selling ~20m/gen anymore. 10m sure, maybe 15m depending on the decline.

This!

I'm not actually arguing, at this current moment, that PSVR is going to sell a bunch of PS4's. I just saw that you mentioned PSVR when talking about PS4 barely being up year on year and i think a product that expensive, that also is completely new and not super available won't start selling really well until this year or next year

edit: also i mentioned the price cut a few times now, its pretty important, especially when you take into account that PS4 actually sold for $350 for 8 months in 2016 and got a shockingly bad $50 price cut with the slim. It was up 500k year on year (6.2 million in 2016 vs 5.7 million in 2015) with the $250 deal in the holidays with at least 400k less sales in the United States in November 2016 compared to 2015 (we still don't have december numbers but if its down by a few hundered thousand units in the United States than sales are being made up for big time somewhere else)

I brought up the PSVR because new peripherals are traditionally a way to boost sales mid generation.  In this case, it doesn't seem like that's going to happen, so the boost would have to come from somewhere else.

i edited my comment and added something just so you see it

There was no effective $50 price drop for VR or the Pro. The only 'deal' I saw involved using a target red card (in store credit card) and they also discounted nearly the entire store one day after Black Friday. Pro and VR were part of this (like I said, store wide promotion) but neither were advertised at the discounted prices nor was it common knowledge where and how to get them for cheaper than msrp. There was no "effective" price drop for either 

I think people are overestimating GT at this point, the series has been getting a lot of flack from fans for being behind on tech, not fixing audio, using really dated models, removing content, poor multiplayer etc. Metascore has fallen with each installment and sales have gone down ever since GT3, to the point where GT6 is set to sell about 1/4 of GT3, on about 60-65% of the installed base, the series has clearly lost traction. The sales down from GT5 are more than halved as well, this is extremely telling of the waning relevance of the series.

Meanwhile, Uncharted has remained in the 90's on metacritic, with UC4 beating UC3 (93 vs 92) and sales of the series has been steadily climbing, to the point where UC4 has officially beat UC3's sales by about 2 million already, on a significantly smaller installed base at that. The Uncharted series has been steadily growing and has also kept its favor with fans and critics alike.

In other words; it's very, very unlikely that GT is a bigger system seller than UC, or that it's even close to as relevant today as the UC series. Discounting GT, what else will help increase sales in 2017? Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Uncharted, PSVR, Slim, Pro and price cuts didn't help make 2016 as fantastic as many thought, I was considered partly insane for my "conservative" year end prediction and my refusal to "accept" that the PS4 would sell 20 million or more for the CY.

Like I said in another post; there's no secret sauce that will suddenly kickstart PS4 sales and drive them higher, most, if not all, signs point towards either more or less flat or slightly down yoy. If it drops, which it well might, I don't think it'll be a huge drop, perhaps in the 5-7% range or so. There's really no logical reason to think that the PS4 will sell more in 2017 at this point, let's not forget that it has had some really paltry competition and still failed to meet many expectations people have in here. If it hasn't flexed its muscles and showed signs of being a 20 million + a year console, it won't suddenly become that in its 4th year on the market, it appears to have flipped the PS3's curve and gone for a good start with an early but smaller decline, whereas the PS3 started slow and then basically grew for 6 years straight. For some perspective; the PS4's best year so far is only about 15-20% better than the PS3's peak year.